AGE IN CHAMPIONSHIP RACES. RUNS THAT SEASON BEFORE Grade 1 attempt. R,F,U,P or B last time out? WHICH SIRES? 1st or 2nd last time out?
AGE IN CHAMPIONSHIP RACES - Real class will usually bury stats. Constitution Hill/Bula? This century 205 horses have contested the four championship races this century when aged 10 or older. 201 were beaten. Only winners have been Sire De Berlais 11 yrs in the 2023 Stayers, Special Tiara 10yrs at 11/1 2017 (benefitting from Douvan's injury and a good ride from Noel Fehily), Sprinter Sacre 5/1 aged 10 in 2016, Moscow Flyer 6/4 fav 2005 aged 11, the last three all Queen Mother Champion Chase winners. The latter pair were regaining their title. Last year 11 had a go, best Corach Rambler a fine GC 3rd. In 2023 five of our elders campaigned, Dashel Drasher at 10, 2ndto Sire De Berlais. In 2022 eight fought valiantly, best performance Paisley Park 3rd as a 10 yr old in the Stayers. Shortest priced loser was Al Boum Photo 6/1 6th in his fourth GC. In 2021 six ried, best Native River 4th in GC at age 11. 2020 five tried, Tobefair 6th in Stayers. 2019 seven came, a magnificent 3rd by Faugheen in the Stayers aged 11. This year's triers may include, Hewick, Winter Fog, Captain Guinness, Edwardstone, Energumene, Jungle Boogie, Asterion Forlonge, Bob Olinger, Home By The Lee, L'Homme Presse. Royal Paguille, Ahoy Senor. To move it to all Festival G1 races, Five have won, the other two successes being Our Vic (10 yrs '08 Ryanair) and Albertas Run (10yrs '11 Ryanair). Both were also under 10/1. Protektorat, Envoi Allen, Blue Lord.
Faugheen at 12 yrs, 3rd in 2020 Marsh at 3/1 fav.
RUNS THAT SEASON - Last year 11 ran in Grade 1s having had at least five runs that season. Djelo got 3rd in the Turners, the rest unplaced. 1n 2023 eight ran, all unplaced. In 2022, 18 had a go. No winners. Bardenstown Lad in the AB best in 3rd. In 2021, 17 tested warriors had a go. None won. 2020 25 horses ran in Festival G1s having had five or more runs in GB or IRE since May. Two big winners Put The Kettle On 16/1 with six runs and Lisnagar Oscar 50/1 with five. No winners 2019. Between 2011 and 2018, only Presenting Percy, Shattered Love, Captain Chris, Taquin De Seuil, Sire De Grugy and Blaklion beat this stat. Potters Charm.
DAYS SINCE RUN - There have been 48 winners in the last 12 years who raced inside 28 days of The Festival
29 of those landed handicaps The following races have not had a winner run within the previous 28 days - Ballymore, QM, Grand Annual, Turners, Stayers, Gold Cup. Magnificent stuff.
Horses who achieved the letter R, F, U, P, S or B last time out -
Willie Mullins - 23/02/22 - “State Man fell at Leopardstown and then won over two miles at Limerick. He’s a horse that’s improving and I haven’t put much thought into which race he’ll go. I imagine there’s no problem with him staying so the chances are he could go to the Ballymore. We could look at the County Hurdle though with a fall on your CV I’d be dubious." Who said he is no respecter of stats? Lossiemouth?
19 LLTs (Letter Last Time) ran last year, two winners Gaelic Warrior U Corbetts Cross F. Neither letter was that traumatic imho. In 2023 20 ran, one winner, Angels Dawn Unseated when going well in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. Three others placed,Saint Roi (U), Risk Belle (F), Shantou Flyer (U). 24 ran in 2022, one winner Corach Rambler (U) in the Reynoldstown at Ascot. Mighty Stowaway (F) 3rd at 33s in the Hunters. In 2021, 34 LLTs ran, one winner, Mrs Milner (F) 12s in the Pertemps, Fine second at 33s by Cloudy Glen (U) in the Kim Muir. 41 ran in 2020. Three big winners, the biggest ever. It Came To Pass 66/1 (P), Ravenhill 12/1 (F), Champ 4/1 (F). And boy, was there some discussion about Champ having previously demolished the second last in the Dipper. Honourable mentions for Theinval 50/1 5th (P) and Mill Green 6th 80/1 (P) Martin Pipe Hurdle. 34 LLTs went to post in 2019. One winner, William Henry (P) at 28s, placers Top Wood (P), Faugheen (F), Tingtangle, (F), 36 in 2018. One winner Rathvinden (U) 4 miler at 9/2 Anibale Fly (F) and Ballyalton (F) placed. Willie Mullins again did for me in 2017 with Nichols Canyon in the Stayers Hurdle being the first winner of a Festival hurdle since at least 1990 having (F) fallen last time out. 70 odd had previously tried. And only Mrs Milner since. (Willie knows). In 2016 Willie also helped to kill the 'you don't win a Festival chase off the back of a fall' stat with Black Hercules (JLT) following on from Ballyalton (2016 Close Bros Chase). First since St Pirran, Grand Annual 2004.
That now makes only a total of 35 winners since 1991 (about 830 races) that had one of the letters beside their name from their last run. 12 had fallen, 9 unseated and 14 pulled up. Winners include 2014 Ballynagour P 12s, 2013 Carrickboy P 50s, 20111 Albertas Run P 6s, '10 Pause and Clause U 14s, '08 High Chimes P 14s, '07 Voy Por Estedes U 5s, '06 Whyso Mayo U 20s, and '06 You're Special P 33s. Check for L'Homme Presse, Envoi Allen, Found A Fifty, Lossiemouth, Ahoy Senor.
Robert Hall on his final day at RTE Racing DRF Sunday 2020 said about Aspire Tower 'you don't want to be going to Cheltenham on the back of a fall.' Shrewd to the end.
Mrs Milner F 2021, William Henry P, Nicholls Canyon F, Wicklow Brave P and then Pause for Clause U in the Conditional Jockeys 2010, Illnamar U in '92 Coral Cup are the last horses to have won a Festival hurdle with a letter as last form entry.
CURRENT TOP GB and Ire NH SIRES (money won) - Season 2024 to 17th February 2025
Standings up to 17th February 2025. A subject about which I know less than nothing.
1. Walk In The Park 2. Getaway 3. Mahler 4. Yeats 5. Westerner 6. Fame And Glory
Walk In The Park from 5th to 1st last year, stays there. Fame And Glory drops from 2nd to 6th. Walk in The Park is over £1m ahead of Getaway in prize money. This time last year he was only £200k ahead of Fame And Glory. Big gap. Best percentage of winners to runners - 35% is Walk In The Park Responsible for Jonbon, inothewayurthinkin, Limerick Lace and Nick Rockett, Spillane's Tower, Montys Star amongst .Fame and Glory for Galopin Des Champs by Timos, Constitution Hill by Blue Bresil,
WHICH SIRE IS HOT at the Festival? - Last year Saint Des Saints took the plaudits with Monmiral, Protektorat and Sine Nomine. Fleminsfirth keeps coming with Ballyburn, Grey Dawning and Shakem Up 'Arry Shantou another double with Stellar Story and Chianti Classico. 2023 Shantou had two winners, Impervious and Stay Away Fay. Also Magical Zoe 2nd. (the less said, the better). In 2022 Jeremy had two winners, Corach Rambler and Sir Gerhard. As did Fame and Glory with Commander Of Fleet and The Nice Guy. Timos and Kapgarde won the most money last two years being both responsible for GC winners. Stowaway, Yeats and Jeremy took the plaudits in 2021. They sired four winners each, something which I don't remember happening before, Stowaway responsible for Monkfish, Put The Kettle On, The Shunter, Telmesomethinggirl. Yeats - Heaven Help Us, Chantry House, Flooring Porter and Mount Ida. Both Stowaway and Yeats had three others placed. Jeremy - Appreciate It, Black Tears, Sir Gerhard and Belfast Banter, Happygolucky in 2nd.
Doubles plus for sires becoming all the rage recently In 2020 achieved by Poligote (Politilogue and Sire du Berlais), Stowaway (Monkfish and Put The Kettle On), Kalanisi (Imperial Aura and The Conditional) and Nathaniel (Burning Victory and Concertista). Did the staying on performance of the latter two mares not remind you of their father powering home in a soft ground King George? Said he, knowing nothing.. No Risk At All responsible for Epatante and Alloha which is an interesting mix.
Ruby Walsh regularly makes the point that we tend to make too much of the sire of the winner and should concentrate more on the breeding on the dam's side as that's where the stamina tends to come from. Wouldn't dare to disagree. Jane Mangan is always fascinating to listen to on the topic of breeding.
Since 2012 the leading sires list by winners reads - Kings Theatre 12, Stowaway 11, Oscar, Robin Des Champs (Quevega) both 10. Jeremy, Fleminsfirth, Shantou 8, Milan, Kayf Tara, both 7.
And finally, my original stat from our first time there in 1985. 'Back something that was 1st or 2nd last time out, Bryan.' Poor enough return last year with only 15 of the 27 winners fulfilling that stat. In 2023 only 16, big year in 2022, 22 of the 28. 19 out of 28 in 2021, 20 out of the 28 2020, In 2019, another 22 from 28, In 2019 and 2022 all seven winners on Gold Cup day filled it. In some races this is unlikely to be a big distinguisher! In 1985 there was no bumper or Mares Novice to enhance the stats!
My work here is now done.
Please enjoy.