HANDICAP CHASES - NOVICES (This might be different now since you need the four runs to qualify.) - Last year three of the four handicap chases went to novices, Chianti Classico, Unexpected Party (a second season) and Inothewayyurthinkin (what a plot!) 2023 Angels Dawn, the only novice to win one of them. In 2022 Corach Rambler (Ultima) alone. 2021 novices won three. Mount Ida, The Shunter and Sky Pirate. 2020 it was all five for novices when we still had the novice handicap chase.
IRISH TRAINED - Irish trained horses have now won 41 of the 76 handicaps over the last seven Festivals. Four from nine, five in in 2023, four 2022, seven from nine in 2021. G Elliott top invader with 12 wins in that time. (plus Mount Ida for Mrs Foster). Last year the four were form four different Irish trainers, in 2023 no Irish trainer won two handicaps. WPM has only won with Absurde over 2023 and 2024. In 2022 and 2021 again all handicap wins each Festival from different Irish trainers, Confirms the strength of Irish racing and not just those trained by Gordon, Willie or Henry. 2020 was the last time an Irish trainer won more than one handicap. G Elliott actually won three with Aramax, Chosen Mate and Sire de Berlais.
NUMBERS - Last year there were 183 runners in the nine handicaps, 97 from Ireland. In 2023 it was 205 and 96 2022 it was 190 and 103. Last year 20 of the 36 places (1st to 4th) went across the Irish Sea. In 2023, it was 21 from 36. Best ever performance. Five winners, three of the h'cap chases. In 2022 it was 14 from 36, 4-0 in wins to h'cap hurdlers from 65% of the runners in those races. Only five GB trained in the Martin Pipe from 23 runners. In 2021, 194 runners, 64 Irish trained or 33%. 16 from 36. Hurdlers better than chasers - 5 wins to 2. In 2020 there were 229 h'cap runners, 74 Irish trained (32%). 5-0 in wins to the hurdlers, Willie one. Also improved from 2019 with 21 of the 40 total places (52.5%). Hurdlers again better than chasers 14 places to 7, four wins to one.
IRISH TRAINED HANDICAP CHASERS (not the Cross Country). There will be more allowed now with the re introduction of the Novice handicap Chase. Without it, a maximum of 92 runners was allowed over the four chases. With lots of bookmakers offering up to 6 places in these, the Irish returns can be even bigger. Little grid below illustrates that more are having a go. With success. In 2024 33 came. Inothewayurthinkin won and four others got placed.
Highlights
2024 - Apart from a 13/8 fav strolling the Kim Muir, not a lot.
2023 - Three Irish trained wins. With close seconds from Fastorslow, Dinoblue and Stumptown.
2022 - Four handicap chases last year won by British trainers with busy horses, each having their 6th run of the season.
2021 - The Shunter and Mount Ida oblige, both as fav, 17 turned up, Farclas chases The Shunter home, and Entoucas, with a better run, should have got closer to Sky Pirate.
2020 - Milan Native and Chosen Mate won, places for Discorama, Galvin, The Plan Of Attack, Eclair de Beaufeau and Us and Them. All priced 10/1 or less. For those who can get those extra places Ben Dundee 5th, Fitzhenry and Mithouka 6th, the latter at 33s.
2019 - Again two winners, A Plus Tard and Any Second Now, Tower Bridge and Ben Dundee placed in the Close Bros. Measureofmydreams unpld 3/1 Irish fav in Kim Muir.
2018 - 16 came. The Storyteller won at 5/1 fav, Mall Dini and Squouateur placed (Three Stars 5th).
2017 - Tully East, Road To Respect 16s and Rock The World all won, places achieved by Noble Endeavour, Powersbomb, The Last Goodbye (5th) and Dandridge. Two Irish BFs were Diamond Kingin Mildmay and Squouateur in Kim Muir both SP priced 5/1.
2016 - Two wins with Empire of Dirt 14s and Cause Of Causes and four places
2015 - Larger than usual raiding party of 21 tried over the five h'caps. Returned with 6 of the 20 places, no winners but placed at 28s, 25s twice and 20s.
KEVIN BLAKE - Lovely fella. Read the sage's opinion on ATR. Especially when the handicap marks come out. The bellweather. The less Kevin complains, the more the Irish are thrown in.
HANDICAP HURDLES - last time placed horses, beaten favourites and course winners - 2023 Jazzy Matty 18/1 Boodles first since Diego Du Charmil 13/2 2016 Fred Winter to have been a beaten favourite last time. Jazzy was beaten in that 4 yr old hurdle at Naas. Diego had been a BF in France They join Whisper 2014 and Ted Veale 2013 to become the only such winners since Silver Jaro (County Hurdle '08) That's 126 handicap hurdles. 11 tried last year, Kyntar close but no cigar.
That means that since Whisper in the 2014 Coral Cup no horse has won any of the 53 handicap hurdles since having been a BF in a handicap hurdle last time out. Over exposed, maybe?
Only 22 of those 126 winners were placed 2nd or 3rd last time out. Lark In The Mornin 3rd, Bettertimesahead 2nd last year. None in 2023 but all five h'cap hurdle winners in 2022 were 1-2-3 last time. Commander Of Fleet at 50s, Third Wind at 25s, Belfast Banter at 33s 2021 certainly made this an interesting idea. Once again is it become a lot more difficult to 'lay' one out as trainers want to guarantee getting in for a run? Dan Skelton might disagree.
Previous Course Winners continue to strike back - Eight tried in 2024, Langer Dan at 13/2 a notorious return success in the Coral Cup. Nine tried in 2023 including 33/1 County winner Faivoir. Twice a course winner, just to rub it in. 14 came in 2022, none successful. Nine came 2021, Heaven Help Us 33s obliged. Had won that 2m maiden hurdle from the October meeting. 2020, stat buried. Dame De Compagnie 5/1F, Sire du Berlais 9/1 and Indefatigable 25s all won handicap hurdles for Course Winners (C). In Dame De Compagnie's case, her third course win. In 2019 William Henry led home a 1-2-3 (Wicklow Brave 28s, Ballyandy14s ), all course winners in the Coral Cup. Before that the previous 68 course winners had failed to win any of the 21 handicap hurdles going back to 2014. And there was me pre Coral 2019 being very smug. In 2014 Whisper, Fingal Bay and Lac Fontana all won handicap hurdles having already been previous course winners. Those three and W Henry had won course novice hurdles and Lac Fontana had come from winning that 2m handicap that closes Trials day. 20 course winners ran between William Henry and Dame de Compagnie. All beaten.
Nicky Henderson has won four Coral Cups, all since 2009. All with previous course winners. Heaven Help Us was the first course winner to win a Coral Cup and not be trained by Nicky.
That makes only 14 winners from the last 126 handicap hurdles had a capital C beside their name. But like Faivoir, some at big prices. The previous ones were Buena Vista '11, Spirit River '10, Andytown '09 and Master Tern '00. Those four (and Lac) were winning their second course handicap hurdle in the space of 12 months. Dame De Compagnie and Sire du Berlais likewise, Sire repeating Buena's success in the Pertemps. Both Dame De Compagnie and Indefatigable had previously won Mares Listed Novice Hurdles on course in the 2019 April Mares meeting. It now pays to back course winners in h'cap hurdles. Aargh..
58 of the last 126 handicap hurdles have been won by a horse that was winner last time out (from about 23% of the runners). That's not bad. None last year form the 20 that came. In 2023 only Iroko from 29. Three won in 2022 from 21 triers, Banbridge, Brazil and State Man. 31 came in 2021, Heaven Help Us at 33s covered their entry fee. 27 qualifiers in 2020. Dame De Compagnie, Aramax, Saint Roi and Indefatigable. Only only one out of the five in each of the previous three Festivals (Band of Outlaws, Blow By Blow and Presenting Percy).
Conditions Hurdle last time out, now in a handicap hurdle? - Since 2008 none of the Fred Winter winners had their last race in a handicap. Very few of the runners in that will actually have competed in one. Of the 60 other handicap hurdles run over the last 15 years, 28 winners had their last race in a non handicap hurdle. Two novices won last year,first run in a handicap. 2023 only Langer Dan, who had jogged round the back in the Relkeel. All five winners in 2022. 20 of the 28 were Irish trained e.g. Absurde in a G1 novice, State Man in a maiden hurdle, Belfast Banter in a Navan G2 Novice, Saint Roi in a maiden hurdle, Early Doors in a 3 mile Graded, Blow By Blow Killultagh Vic and Don Poli in Graded Novices,
Third Wind was a long way behind in a Rendelsham, Aux Ptit Soins came straight from a French 4yr old hurdle, Kayf Aramis won a Warwick Novice, Andytown last of 4 in a Novice Chase. GB non h'cap hurdle last time out. Third Wind joined, Mohaayed 3rd in the G1 Xmas hurdle, Pause For Clause (U in a G2) and Indefatigable a Mares Listed, along with Langer Dan, came from an English Non handicap Hurdle. This may change now with the five runs for a Novice to get in rule.
Absurde, Mrs Milner and Heaven Help Us came from the DRF. Sire du Berlais, Delta Work and Bleu Berry had last raced in handicaps.
DAYS SINCE RUN - Courtesy of @Cheltmental - Stat returns. There have been 47 winners in the last 11 years who raced inside 28 days of The Festival. 28 of those landed handicaps which equates to 30% (8/20 Tuesday, 2/20 Wednesday, 13/30 Thursday, 5/20 Friday). Monmiral 25/1 ran 19 days before his win last year. None won in 2023.
CARRYING A PENALTY - Chambard cracked a lovely stat being the first h'cap chase winner since Holmwood Legend in 2011 to win carrying a penalty. The Venetia 40/1 shot had won at Ludlow 11 days previous. Previous one to Holmwood Legend was in 2000. Call The Cops carried a 5lb penalty to win Pertemps H'cap Hurdle in 2015. Huntsmans Son and Oh Land O'Bloom unplaced 2019, Eragon De Chanay unpl in Fred Winter 2018. Not many run.
WEIGHT CARRYING IN HANDICAP CHASES - 11st or more. Unexpected Party 10-10 last year. The rest all over 11st. All four over 11st in 2023, only Coole Cody in 2022, two from four in 2021, 4 out of 5 2020. 3 in 2019, 4 of the 5 normal h'cap chases in each of the previous five years, only one out of 5 as far back as 2013. 'Normal' means not cross country, a conditions race before 2025. This weight carrying stat has been 'skewed' with squeezed handicaps.