RACING POST 2024 FESTIVAL TIPPING REVIEW.
Tom Segal and Paul Kealy remain amongst the most influential tipsters in the UK and Ireland because their views change prices. Even at Cheltenham. Their influence has been maintained with the introduction of the RP Youtube tipping programme 'In The Know.' with the lovable Ross Brierley.
Other pundits, complain that Tom does not suggest at what prices to back his selections. Its a fair point. Personally, I don't think that the Pricewise prices are as important as are made out to be. We are all well aware that Segal's tips will be shortened and we are all big enough to make our own decisions on 'value'. Sometimes it's even better to wait until just before the race, when his tips may drift. Some other tipsters show Profit and Loss columns based on prices no ordinary mortal is ever going to get.
Tony Calvin, Daryl Carter, Johnny Dineen and Rory Delargy would also be amongst the most influential tipsters. Those six mentioned get plenty of air time with podcasts and youtube channels. Johnny is different than the rest, he mostly bets favourites, absolutely nothing wrong with that. That's the value as he sees it. Met him in the Leopardstown ring 28th December 2023, nice to chat, what you see is what you get. Bets in bundles of money which need to have elastic bands on. You can find all 2025 antepost views on Upping The Ante.
Both Mr Segal and Kealy do a lot of Cheltenham Antepost Tipping in the RP and the Weekender. I know the Festival is only a snapshot of their tipping year but it is the week when the Racing Post will sell most papers. They put the price of the paper up earlier than usual in 2025. It's usually on Cheltenham Monday. So, it's showtime, boys.
So how was the 2024 Festival for Tom, Paul and Johnny? Tom first, highlight of the week was Captain Guinness 25s antepost. Hard to whack, though even he found it hard to believe. Followed it up with Chianti Classico, Sateman 4s and Limerick Lace 5s, both Antepost. Although he said win only, you'd have to give him Home By The Lee @ 33s. 34 tips in total. Infront, but not by a lot. Johnny likes to give one a race. Some shorties beaten but his highlights were Chianti Classico, Montys Star w/o, Shanbally Kid and Stellar Story at 33s. Not bad at all.
2023 - I sometimes have difficulty with the RP Pricewise blurb. According the each daily paper I counted Tom with 31 tips including the Antepost. Two antepost winners Corach Rambler 12s, A Dream To Share 11/2. Nothing on any of the day of race fields.
JD's column sometimes gives very sage advice. I find him an absolute deflight on Upping The Ante. Tuesday 2023, 'been at Cheltenham since 2004, first as a bookie and then as a punter. One thing I've learned in 18 years is that the best two days for punters are Tues/Wed. If you're in dire straits Thursday morning, the chances of you coming out of the week in front are slim. Thurs/Fri are a bookies bonanza.'
And that mirrored his tipping. His two Dineen Diamonds went in Tues Wed El Fabiolo and Energumene. Tipped Corach Rambler, Impaire et Passe and Delta Work. And that's where it stopped and went horribly wrong. He was laying Honeysuckle since Christmas, the 'banker of the week' was Mighty Potter.' 0 from 15 in bold type Thurs/Friday. No favs won Thursday, only Lossiemeouth and Galopin Des Champs on Friday, unsupported by Johnny in his column.
2022 For Tom, hmm. Tipped 19 horses antepost. One winner Flooring Porter at 6s. Tipped him the year before at 16s. On the week itself, it wasn't a classic. 16 tips over the four days. Brazil on Tuesday covered his loses, L'Homme Presse was only 9/4f due to the late defection of Bravemansgame, then nothing til Banbridge at 12s in the Martin Pipe helps him out of a hole. If he backed nothing else, he's just in front. 2021 his only two winners all week were Mount Ida and Porlock Bay. The latter, live, he gave a lot of credit for listening to Jane Mangan. Good man.
2020 was similar for him. 18 antepost selections, Sharjah, Discorama 20s and Pileon 12s (none of which he advised ew) might have provided a return for you, if I'm generous. On the days themselves, he headlined with Imperial Aura (6s when tipped) and Dame de Compagnie (8s). Then Concertista (8s) Bob Mahler placed (25s) and Chosen Mate (7s available) on GC day. He's had better Festivals.
Like 2019. Probably his best ever year in the history of Gaultstats. There's a history to Gaultstats? Again, including antepost, he tipped 41 horses over the 4 days. Glory days with antepost 25/1 Espoir D'Allen, City Island 33s, Topofthegame 8s, Aso ew Ryanair 33s, Ch'tibello 12/1, Anibale Fly 50s ew GC and Early Doors. Made at a profit of over 60pts level stakes on the week. Good luck to him. It's never easy.
The Tom Segal antepost portfolio for 2025 includes Lossiemough 9/2 CH Hurdle, Il Est Francais 10s QM, Gerri Colombe 14s NR, GC, The Wallpark 16s Stayers, Better Days Ahead 16s Brown Advisory Novice, Kawaboomga 12s Nr Turners Hurdle, Romeo Coolio 6s Supreme, Misterjif ew 50s NR Arkle, Protektorat 8s Ryanair, Hello Neighbour 6s, Triumph, Golden Ace 10s nrnb Mares Hurdle, Wendigo 20s, Ballybow 40s Albert Bartlett, Springwell Bay 10s nrnb, Plate, Midnight Our Fred 12s Kim Muir, Hot Fuss 25s Boodles, Feet Of A Dancer 16s nrnb Pertemps, Pic Roc, 20s nrnb Novice H'cap, Kaiser Ball, Fortune De Mer, Bumper
Paul Kealy, the lead Racing post tipster, 2024 Had no success antepost and 0-9 Tues/Wed. Roared back with Protektorat, Shakemup 'Arry, and Limerick Lace. 21 tips in the RP. 2023 had one big winner antepost. Envoi Allen 20s ew Ryanair. As in 2024 he had a shocking 0 from 12 on Tues/Wed. Big sigh of relief when Seddon went in at 20s, well done on the Thursday. Friday no winners, but place returns on Letsbeclearaboutit 16s and Conflated 22s. Probably a bit more chilled. In 2022 selections included Protektorat 20 ew GC, Vauban 8s Triumph, Alaphillippe 16s ew Pertemps, Frero Banbou G Annual 16s ew, Imperial Alcazar 8s ew Plate. Also gave Allegorie De Vassy 10s Mares Novice. Might be a man before his time. Unluckily tipped Constitution Hill for the Ballymore and L'Homme Presse for the Turners.
Paul's antepost portfolio for 2024 is be found in the Weekender. Defensive stuff. Seems less of them this year It includes Djelo 12s ew Ryanair, Stellar Story 18s ew Brown Advisory, Potters Charm 16s ew Turners Hurdle, Lucky Place 9s ew Stayers. Really? 9s ew antepost? How much shorter on the day? Montys Star 14s ew GC Arkle. Theatre Man 16s, Life In The Park 40s, Plate, Mint Boy 12s Kim Muir, D Art D Art 20s, Long Draw 25s, Pertemps, Absurde 8s, County, East India Express 14s Martin Pipe, Malinas Girl 16s, Karate Dori 8s, Ultima, Transmission 6/1, NH Chase, Supersundae 20s, JImmy Du Seuil 20s Coral Cup.
BIG RACE TRENDS - My nemesis, Kevin Morley, (still a picture of a child. He must be older than that?) Had one of his better weeks Eight winners over the four days and didn't shy away from the shorties. His highlights would have been, Chianti Classico, Corbetts Cross, Gentleman de Mee and Grey Dawning. Its not easy when you are restricted to one in bold type. Good luck to him. He tipped better than I did. I love his grids. Lots of info. And a gentleman.
There seems to be a lot less tipping in the Racing Post these days, The Irish Angle Conor Fennelly was allowed three irish horse a day, gave Jasmin de Vaux, Limerick Lace, Inothewayurthinkin. Not bad.
The rules don't change. Click on oddschecker.com at 6pm the instant after the Pricewise selections are released online and you can watch the prices shrink. All bookies shrink prices if they think they are about to be knocked over. Segal selections tend to be well punted Day 1. The longer he goes without a winner, the less frantic it becomes. Also, they will be cut in the morning but both Kealy and Segal selections sometimes drift in the afternoon, especially on the exchanges.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETTING GUIDES - Matt Tombs on the Matchbook Youtube is just amazing. The angles he thinks of. Weatherbys employ Paul Ferguson to produce their own trends bible. He took up the baton from Matt and Paul Jones (in front of whom we all kneel). Going back to the year 2000 I have every one of the Weatherbys Guide looking at me as I write this. Still enjoy the reads. Each version has many points of which I would never have thought. In his 2019 Racing TV version Matt kindly gave Gstats a full page advert for Marie Curie UK. Another gentleman.
Paul Ferguson has not scrimped with detail in the Weatherby's Festival Guide which is 'The Original.' There are some cracking stats from a very professional production. Also very supportive of Gstats, Rory Delargy provides excellent thoughts with his Bankers and Bust section. He's a busy man now, is our Rory. With the Weatherbys Guide you also get Aintree cover and plenty of Grand National detail. Well worth the £16. As is the Jumpers To Follow produced by Paul at the start of each NH season. Half a book of stats in there which this season identifed Joyeuse in the WH Hurdle amongst other decent priced handicap winners.
The Racing Post have also been good to me over the years. Every year Robin Gibson seemed to have the space in the surfnturf Sunday Supplement to give a Gstats a very decent write up. 'More nuggets than a KFC in a chicken glut' remains my personal favourite. They do produce their own Cheltenham Festival Guide every year. Every year I buy it, flick through it when it arrives and then never read it. I even carry it in my luggage wherever I may be spending Festival week and still would never turn to it. Why? Well, for one, Kevin Morley's excellent trends will be in the paper each Festival day so I don't need to read them when the guide arrives. A lot of space still seems to go on the RPRs. Not for me. Obviously half of the guide will concentrate on the races. But essays on each potential runner can quickly become a bit boring. And by the time it's delivered to me, some info is well out of date, with injuries and changes to planned targets. There are tips in it from everyone, bookmakers, writers, trainers, again some NRs. Sometimes they sprinkle the pages with unknown info. For example in 2020, The New One is the only Festival Hurdle winner for Nigel Twiston Davies since 2008. I like that, it's a bit different. For £16.99, it's just ok for me. (Ballyfitz in the Pertemps). I find the paper they bring out the week before 'The Racing Post Ultimate Guide.' at £4.50, a more useful tool, All entries are there and nice titbits.
IN THE KNOW - Ross Brierley loves a stat and will sprinkle some of mine of their preview shows, He's a good guy.. Mr Segal is not a fan. Never mind, it's just fun.
At € 6.99 I must mention the Irish Field Cheltenham Festival Guide. Out about a fortnight before the Weatherbys one, it concentrates on great interviews. Contributions from Matt Tombs, Kevin Blake, Simon Rowlands and even me in the past! Felt very honoured. Support it, it's value.
KEVIN BLAKE is employed by Attheraces, ITV and Betfair and has become a extremely well known and very influential voice in GB and Irish Racing. He is a noted breeder and Joseph O'Brien's race planner. Shrewd and worth listening to, if only as a gauge to the response of irish trained handicap marks in the Festival. When Kevin talks, people listen. In the 2021 Festival Kevin hit a nice jackpot with tipping a Thursday treble on ITV's Morning Show. Mrs Milner/The Shunter/Mount Ida. Paid well. Some say he has hardly tipped a winner since. Kevin also makes very imformed comment on ATR.
Man who knows what he is talking about meets a nerd in Belfast, 2nd March 2020. Lovely lad. Kevin, that is.
No more Sean Graham's Belfast Preview Nights in Belfast. A pity, I thought them well organised evenings. The top table always full of the right people. The best preview night panels imho are those full of people who actually know the horses. More than one pundit or bookie can be one too many and I never see the point listening to a jockey/trainer who has no connection to likely runners. Can only add gossip.
Here's a good man, too. Young Keenan. He's made me money.
