Trainers

In 2024 exactly 200 of the 367 total Festival runners were trained in Ireland or 54%. In 2022, 217 of the total 404 runners came from Emerald Isle trainers or again, 54%. 2022, the first time over half of the total fields had travelled. In 2023, 438 competed at the Festival. People say we have no horses? 232 tarvelled from across the Irish Sea or 53%. The much vaunted Prestbury Cup was taken 18-10 both years, I think although records are hardle kept.

WPM saddled 78 runners last year, 76 in 2023, 64 in 2022. His biggest day's work tends to be GC Day. Quietest on the Thursday, only 11 last year. GE brought over 55 last year, 60 in 2024. over last year. That means last year 36% of total runners were from two stables. Whether that is healthy is debateable. In 2022 only five of the 23 in the Martin Pipe Hurdle were GB trained, last year only eight of the 22 in the Boodles were 'home' entries. As the English handicapper has to push up the ratings of the Irish to achieve some sort of parity, it then becomes harder for GB trained to get in. I don't know the answer, let's see how the changes work this year?

In 2021 probably due to COVID, Irish trainers 'only' brought over 161 runners to the Festival accounting for 37% of total fields. WPM alone had 55 runners over the 4 days. In 2020 44% of total runners (181) were Irish trained, representing 37 different trainers. G Elliott and W Mullins had 'only' the 97 between them. 

G Elliott did not train any winners at the 2021 Festival due to being banned. It is fair to say that otherwise he would probably have been awarded Top Trainer. Mrs Foster had her name to three winners and Sir Gerhard, Galvin and Quilixios were moved 'elsewhere' shortly before the Festival. I am sure Mr Elliott mulls over this from time to time. However, we must adhere to official records.

TOP FESTIVAL TRAINERS - 2019 to 2024 - Mullins 38, de Bromhead 16, Elliott 14, Henderson 9, Skelton 6, Cromwell 6, Nicholls 4, Foster 3.

W P Mullins roars on over the five year rollling average, 38 being his biggest haul yet. Thursday has been winnerless for him over the last two Fetivals and he even was on a losing run of 22 before Lossiemouth jogged home in the 2023 Triumph. G Elliott suffered due to the 2021 ban issues (lost six) but has gone from 20 to 14 over the last two years. That's a drop. He was on a losing run of 41 until Teahupoo lasy year. A double on the Friday must have helped. H de Bromhead reamins steady on 16. N Henderson drops from 16 to 9 over the past two years and he is now on a losing run of 34, going back to Constitution Hills Champion Hurdle. Thats a lot. The Skeltons move up +3 and PN is -7 over the past four years, Gavin Cromwell has trained 6 Festival winners in the last 5 yrs. From 32 runners.

W Mullins remains over 12% wins per runners and has won over £900k in prize money at each of the last nine Festivals, (Last year his biggest ever haul £1.6 m, 2023, £1.36m, 2022 £1.27m, 2020 had been his highest for a while at £1.2m). Has saddled at least three winners at every Cheltenham Festival since 2010. Big priced winners last year with Absurde at 12s, Majborough at 6s. In 2023 Impair Et Passe at 5/2 was the biggest priced of his six winners. 50 of his 78 runners last year and 45 of the 76 in 2023 actually won wages. From Galopin Des Champs taking £352k to Risk Belle getting £340 for finishing 8th in the County. 17 of his Festival winners in the five yr period were chasers. But not one handicap chaser. Yet. In 2022 won his first QM and Hunters Chase Yet to win a Boodles or a Cross Country. Has won 17 of the 30 races restricted to mares. 

A year's data missing from G Elliott buts them's the breaks.  Stellar Story 33s helped his £1 level stakes. Back to -£2 over the five year. Down to an 7% strike rate. 25 of his 55 last year and 29 of 60 in 2023 won wages. Bur at the 2018 Festival he had eight winners, six for Gigginstown. Changed times?

N Henderson is now on a 8% strike rate. His 9 winners means he is now -£52 for a £1 stake down from -£14. P Nicholls didn't score in 2022 and 2021 but had stormed back in with quality G1 wins in the QM, RSA and Ryanair in the previous two Festivals. Two G1 winners 2023 and Monmiral got them out of a hole last year. Over the last five seasons his four winners have come from 77 runners (6%). He runs less now, too.

W Mullins is 14 from the last 17 with runners SP of 2/1 and under. Those that let him down were Jade De Grugy and El Fabiolo last year and Galopin Des Champs in that amazing G1 Turners. 33 of his total of 103 winners have been over fences but 28 of those 33 have come in the last 10 years. Has also trained Galopin, Al Boum Photo and five different Gold Cup runner ups so it would be fair to say he knows what he is doing with the bigger obstacles. Wouldn't say he was that selective.

Do please be advised. I'm not sure that Mr Mullins cares that much for Cheltenham Festival stats.  

• You can't come straight from bumpers to G1 Festival chases (Fact To File
• You don't win G1 Festival Chases on the back of a fall (Gaellic Warrior U, Black Hercules)
• Favs have a shocking record in National Hunt Chase. No win since 2013. (Galliard Du Mesnil)
• Horse don't win a QM having never run here before (Energumene).
• Seven yr old and winner of Leopardstown G1 Xmas Novice never take a Supreme. (Appreciate It, 8l)
• Back to back Gold Cups? Not done since Best Mate (Al Boum Photo, Galopin Des Champs)
• Win a Champion Bumper wearing any sort of headgear? No. (Ferny Hollow)
• Wins a County Hurdle on first handicap run? Hasn't hapened since Thumbs Up in '93. (Saint Roi and State Man) 
• Supreme winners only run a maximum of 4 or 5 times over hurdles. (Klassical Dream) 
• Albert Bartlett winners have no chance in a Stayers. (Penhill). 
• Cyborgo '96 last horse to win a Stayers without a prep run. (Penhill, again). 
• All the bumper winners have different sires. Not now, thanx to Relegate. 
• None of his 24 runners have finished in the first two in a Coral Cup. (then saddled Bleu Berry, Wicklow Brave) 
• Horses that have won graded hurdles have poor records in Coral Cups. (Bleu Berry),
• You have no chance of winning a G1 Festival hurdle off the back off a fall. (Nichols Canyon, Stayers) 
• Horses never carry over 11st 8 lb to win a County. (Arctic Fire)
• 'You just don't win a G1 Festival Chase of the back of a fall.' (Black Hercules). 
• 'Win an RSA with only two previous runs over fences?'  (Florida Pearl, Don Poli, )
• 'But surely RSA winners need to have run in the calendar year?' (also Don Poli). 
• Sired by Montjeu and getting up hills? You can't be serious.'  (Hurricane Fly).
• 'Supreme winners need to be out no more than 45 days beforehand and shouldn't lead the whole way?' 'Win a Supreme with a 40/1 shot?' (Ebaziyan) 
• Not only training but riding the bumper winner. (Wither or Which 1999) 

Has also won 12 of the h'cap hurdles in the past 15 years. I do remember him being interviewed on course one day about the Montjeu stat. He politely enquired, 'what stat? I've had lots of Montjeus run up hills.'

My Willie Mullins stat - 'If there is a rock solid roadblock stat that says the Willie Mullins runner can't win, then you seriously consider the Willie Mullins runner.' 

In total he has run 23 horses at the Festival who hadn't been seen for at least 300 days - 7 winners. Mind you, five of those were Quevega in the Mares Hurdle. Appreciate It just didn't add to that total.

So, in 2024 what stats targets shall we set for Mr Mullins to attack? Let's try these. A handicap chase perchance? The Pertemps? X Country?

Gordon Elliott - Can also rewrite stats. 11 yr olds don't win Stayers (Sire de Berlais). And they certainly don't go on to win at Aintree when touching 200/1 in running. What, a Triumph Hurdle winner could win a four miler (and two Nationals), stop now. French bred five year old takes the Pertemps? Then loves the X Country? Same horse wins back to back Pertemps? Novice rated 147 takes Grand Annual? Can't happen. 7lb claimer on a novice takes Kim Muir? No, no no. Teahupoo and Sire joined Don Cossack to be Gordon's only open G1 Festival winners. Brighterdaysahead.

9 of David Pipe's 14 Festival winners have worn blinkers. He has won 3 G1 chases, the G1 bumper and 10 handicaps. It's become difficult. Gericault Roque 2nd in 2022 Ultima. Windbeneathmywings.

Henry de Bromhead has trained 20 Festival winners, six of which came in the 2021 perfect storm. Only trainer ever to win the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother and Gold Cup in the same year. Captain Guinness and Slade Steel last year, three in 2023.

Eight of Jonjo O'Neill's nine handicap winners have been in races over 3m+. None recent. Springwell Bay, Paeky Boy. Last year Dan Skelton three Festival winners over fences. Hadn't done that before.

All time Trainers Festival Wins leaderboard - W Mullins 103, N Henderson 73, P Nicholls 49, F Walwyn 40, G Elliott 40, M Pipe 34, F Winter 28, F Rimell 27, JJ ONeill 26, T Dreaper 26, V O'Brien 23, B Turnell 23. Only change here is that Willie goes further into the distance.

Nicky has been leading trainer nine times but not since 2012. Willie has won the title in 11 of the last 14 Festivals, 2021 on countback from Henry.  

In 11 of the last 15 Festivals, N Henderson has had at least two G1 winners. Stable unfortunately had problems last year, Constitution Hill his only winner in 2023. Himself and Marie's Rock 2022. Shishkin and Chantry House 2021, 2020 was Shishkin, Epatante and Champ, Altior and Pentland Hills 2019, Altior and Buveur D'Air 2018, three the year before. Whisper (Coral Cup) was his only winner in 2014, Call the Cops (Pertemps) and Peace and Co (Triumph) 2015.  Since 2014 NH has trained 20 Festival winners, all bar William Henry PU and Champ (F second last when strolling the Dipper) won last time out.

Trainers Cold List - Examples as to the importance of Cheltenham to trainers. Watch this emotional interview with Kim Bailey, after Imperial Aura won the novice h'cap in 2020. https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/85863. Kim's first actual course success since 2015. Or even Philip Rothwell after McAlpine won one November.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGfgq1pqesQ I love that. Such passion.

CURRENT COLD FESTIVAL LIST - N Twiston Davies 104 (Ballyandy), The Tizzards 71 (Native River). It doesn't take long to build up a Festival losing run. Ask Nicky and Gordon. Dan Skelton was on 50 before Langer Dan two years ago, Paul Nicholls on 50 before Stage Star in the Turners. And then in 2023 both of them had another winner, nearly immediately. Tom George 34 (Summerville Boy), Gary Moore 336 (ah Goshen), David Pipe 29, Venetia Williams 26. At least they have trained Festival winners and some, many. Edwardstone's fine 2022 Arkle success brought Alan King off the list. Stood at 86 since AP's final Festival winner, Uxizandre, in 2015. 10 of Mr King's 16 Festival winners have been in Grade 1s. Edwardstone was also his first favourite in 18.5 to win. Venetia Williams in 2022 was also heard to say, 'Stats, what stats?' L'Homme Presse impressed with a fine Broadway success followed up by Chambard at 40s in the Kim Muir. A helluva week for her and 80 unsuccessful attempts since Carrickboy in the 2013 Plate long forgotten. Gaultstats Rule No 2. They all will pass some day. Evan Williams also delighted that Coole Cody surprised us all. Evan was 0 from 47. Those who have yet to trouble the Festival scorers include C Longsdon 72 (Pendra 1.17 under the Doc in the 2017 Kim Muir), F O'Brien 53 (he's been close), T Vaughan 43.  Neither have Mssrs Keighley nor Richards.  Harsh on the former with the post Festival disqualification of Any Currency.

It's true that even getting one good enough to compete can be an achievement. On the 17th October 2017 Master Dancer won a Cl3 H'cap hurdle at Cheltenham trained by T Vaughan. 140 odd runners before he had any winner at Cheltenham. And every trainer present came up to shake his hand. Great stuff. He tweeted 'It. Just. Happened.'

Fergal O'Brien in a 2020 RTV interview said that having a Cheltenham winner 'does not define you as a trainer.' Really? Might help, though. Click on to http://www.jamiesnowdenracing.co.uk and say it doesn't matter. Name me Jamie's Festival winner before You Wear It Well? And the year?

GB CHAMPION TRAINER - Paul Nicholls

Apart from Big Buck's, he has only been successful with one out of 22 favourites in the past 14 Festivals (Sanctuaire, 2010 Fred Winter). Had trained a Festival winner every year since 2003 but not in 2021 nor 2022. Fought back 2023 with Stage Star (Turners), Stay Away Fay (Albert Bartlett). In the last decade Stay Away Fay and Topofthegame his only winners in the novice races. In the last 11 festivals PN has had 16 winners, the above mentioned plus Politologue, Dodging Bullets, Frodon, Topofthegame, eight handicappers (six of which were hurdlers) and Pacha du Polder twice. As said, none were favourite. In the Boodles since 2013, he has had two winners, eight placed from 30 runners. QM 2 winners and 2 placed from 12 runners since 2014. No placed horses in the Triumph since 2014. With no real big owner firepower at the moment (Caldwell Potter?) that has been an excellent performance. It's been suggested that Dodging Bullets won a handicap disguised as a Champion Chase but that's unfair.  Only Monmiral of the 16 h'cap wins was in a race longer than 2m 5f. PN has won the Grand Annual four times but none of the other three handicap chases. Has never had a mare placed at the Cheltenham Festival. With none of the handicap winners being a favourite the average price for Mr Nicholls's winners has been about 14/1.  Fair enough work from a Champion Trainer. Il Ridoto, Stage Star, Monmiral, Jubilee Alpha.