My Pension Expert Arkle Chase

The 8 yr old Stat - Edwardstone 2022, Sizing Europe 2010 and Moscow Flyer 2002 only winners for those aged 8 yrs since Commandante ’90. All three rated in the high 150s when running in this and had already won a Grade 1 2m novice chase. By coincidence, all those wins were in December.

My Mate Mozzie came last year, 6th. Three in 2023, best Saint Roi 3rd. Edwardstone the only eight year old runner in his year. None tried in 2021. 2020 four in the 11 strong field, Global Citizen 33s best in 4th, the other three didn't finish. Articulum 25/1 placed as a nine year old in 2019. Then we have to go back to 2011 Finians Rainbow 2nd, '10 Osana 3rd, Kalahari King 2nd in '09. There has been no 9 year old winner since Danish Flight '88. One of the best known Cheltenham stats. Will pass someday, but when?

Last year the 1-2-3 was aged 6-7-6, 2023 6-7-8 yrs, 2022 it was 8-7-7, 2021 7-7-6, 2020 6-5-6, In 2019 6-6-9. 2018 Footpad was a 6 yr old.

To summarise, the last 14 winners - 6 yr olds lead 7 yr olds, Eight - Five. And Edwardstone.

5 yr olds - Do well with smaller numbers but allowance stopped after '08. No 5 yr old winner since Voy Por Ustedes '06. No 5 yr olds ran in 8 of the last 12 years. None last two years. Best finisher of three in 2022 Riviere d'Etel in 5th. 2021 Allmankind 5/1 beat one home. Fakir D'Oudaries a fine second 2020. Saint Calvados went off too quick in 2018. None ran in the previous two years, 0-16 since 2006. Sir Gino.

PRICE - Favorites - Gaelic Warrior 2/1 and El Fabiolo backed down to 11/10 continues the favs drum roll. Edwardstone 5/2 fav. I must stop laying these Arkle favs. Shishkin at 4/9 for Odds On followers. Notebook and Hardline couldn't continue the Arkle Odds On winning run after Footpad 5/6, Altior 1/4, Douvan 1/4 following Un De Sceaux 4/6. Before that Simonsig 2013 and Sprinter Sacre 2012. Currently by far the best current Festival race for favourites. Sir Gino

Before 2012 we have to go back to Azertyuiop ’03, Klairon Davis ’95, Remittance Man ’91. Those all short priced and turned over - Notebook (5/2), Champagne Fever (11/4), Medermit (11/4), Captain Cee Bee (5/2), Noland, War of Attrition, Sybillin, Mulligan, Decoupage and Seebald. With small fields and the Turners/JLT you might have expected more favourites to win. No more than 11 runners each year in this since Turners/JLT introduction. 10 lat year, 2023 9, 11 in 2022, 5 in 2021. Sybillin 4/5 in 1993 was the previous odds on before Sprinter Sacre 2012 and the last one to get beat. (Just love this stuff sometimes). Seven odds on shots in the past 13 and they all won. Sir Gino

Put The Kettle On 16/1 joined Western Warhorse 33s 2014 first winners to be priced over 11/1 since Waterloo Boy 20s in '89. Gabynako 25s, Eldorado Allen 33s, Articulum 25s, Ordinary World 25s joined Gods Own and Baily Green (both 2nd at 33s) first since Ashley Brook '05 to be placed at 20/1 plus. 13 horses 20/1 and over have been placed in past 29 races. None last two years. Seems about right odds wise.

Put The Kettle On is the only winner in 29 not to be favourite or second favourite on their previous run. Was the 6/1 outsider of four when winning the Cheltenham Arkle Trial in November. Gaelic Warrior turned over at 4/7 in the DRF.

Since the turn of the century 29 last time out beaten favourites have run. Two winners, Gaelic Warrior and Tidal Bay 6/1. Latter had been beaten 1/2 length on previous run at Doncaster at 1/4 but had won 3 novice chases that season. In the last five renewals, only four qualifiers, Authorised Speed also last year 100/1 F. 2022. Best finisher Riviere D'Etel in 5th.

TRAINERS

Irish trained - 12 of the last 29 including seven of the last ten with Gaelic, El Fab, The Kettle, Duc de Genievres, Footpad, Douvan, Un De Sceaux. Henry de Bomhead alone breaking W Mullins' run. Sizing Europe '10, Forpadytheplasterer '09, Moscow Flyer ’03 and 16 others placed out of 92 runners over the past 23 years. As with all the Grade Ones, the Irish have taken over. Six from 10 runners last year, a 1-2-3, six from nine in 2023 resulting in a 1-3, seven from 11 in 2022 were from the Emerald Isle resulting in a 2-3 behind Edwardstone. Captain Guinness no better than 3rd of five runners 2021, a 1-2 in 2020 from 4 runners, 2019 an Irish 1-2-3 from 5 runners. (Sizing John, Champagne Fever both 2nd, Ordinary World 3rd, Trifolium 3rd 2014. Last 13 winners of Irish Arkle to turn up finished 3112111161631 in this. Notebook and Some Plan each finishing 6th spoils that a bit. Irish winners of this had finished placed 31121111 in the December Leopardstown 2 mile novice. Found A Fifty won, finished 2nd here Min won it in 2017, Douvan won 2016. Winners of this who had run in the Irish Arkle finished 2111U1FF2111 in Ireland.

The last horse to win the Arkle after falling last time out was Moscow Flyer in 2002.

N. Henderson - Seven wins, four seconds, and three thirds from 24 runners in past 31 renewals. Jonbon 2nd 2023. No runner last year, 2022, 2020 nor 2019, Brain Power 14s second in 2018. 2016 Vaniteux may have finished second before UR two out. Before Shishkin, Altior, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre his last winner was Tuitchev in 2000. He has run 10 horses in this who had a hurdle rating in excess of 145. Five won, four finished second and Vaniteux. Sir Gino.

Henry de Bromhead - Beginning to have some ammunition for this race. Won it with Sizing Europe in 2010, then a gap of four years with no entries. Has run 11 in the last nine, Rachael dallied at the start on Quilixios last year, Captain Guinness 3rd 2021, Put The Kettle On wins 2020, Sizing John 2nd, Ordinary World 3rd. Indepocket, Slade Steel.

JP McManus has only had nine runners this century, Jonbon 2nd, Saint Roi 3rd, Fakir D'Oudaries 2nd first since Tap Night 2013, and the first placed since Foreman in 2006. Majborough, Indepocket.

M/D. Pipe - 5 wins, 2 seconds and a third from 15 runners in past 22. Nothing placed for 7 years and then along comes Western Warhorse in 2014. D Pipe immediately admitted that he had spent the previous two weeks trying to persuade the owner, Roger Brookhouse, not to run him. No runners last nine years and none on the horizon. Well Chief (star) and the Warhorse only had one chase run. All other winners of this back to '94 at least two chase runs.

Mullins/Henderson have won 10 of the last 13 between them. Would have been 11 without the Warhorse.

P. Nicholls - In last 22 renewals has had 20 runners. Two winners, four thirds. However since Azer '03 only three thirds from 15 runners. (No runners last eight years, Vibrato Valtat 4th in 2014 after trying to take the favourite on. Dodging Bullets unpl 2014. No runner 2013, Al Ferof unpl 2012). 12 of his last 13 finished unplaced. Kalif Du Berlais

A. King - has only ever had seven runners in this. Jahash in ’04 was 4^th at 150/1, Kadount ’05 was travelling well when UR four out and then he won it twice with Voy Por Ustedes and My Way De Solzen. 2011 Medermit his first runner for 4 years and favourite, only 4th. Last runner before Edwardstone was Valdez 4th 2014. No goat's toe, is Mr King.

Northern based - Cloudy Dream 12s ran in 2017 to finish 2nd for Malcolm Jefferson. Kahahari King 2nd '09, Tidal Bay won '08 and Monets Garden’s 2^nd to Voy ’06 improves their performance from the previous decade. Overturn well beaten at 7/2 in 2013. No runners 2015, '16 or in any of the last seven years.

FORM - All bar Gaelic Warrior of the last 15 won last time out. Going back to Forpadydeplaster in '09. Only Gaelic UR, Contraband (3^rd) and Moscow Flyer (F) of the last 32 winners did not finish 1^st or 2^nd in their previous race. Of those 32 only Moscow, Ventana Canyon and Un De Sceaux had actually fallen that season. Moscow had fallen twice. Ventana Canyon started chasing career in the same 2m 2f Thurles Beginners as Un De Sceaux and Il Etait Temps. Not relevant this year. Duc De Genievres 2019 is the only winner since Contraband '05 not to have finished in the first 2 on any completed chase start that season in GB or Ire. But then when did Willie Mullins ever worry about stats. Western Warhorse had won his only chase.

19 of the last 24 had won at least a G2 that season. Not the Duc, Western Warhorse, nor Well Chief.

BHA RATINGS - 12 of last 22 had rating of 156 plus and were the top-rated hurdler. Gaelic Warrior 157/153 as a hurdler. El Fabiolo hurdle rating 2lb below Jonbon. Edwardstone's hurdle rating of 150 was the same as Coeur Sublime. Global Citizen top rated hurdler 2020 off 156. Shishkin 164 Kettle chase rating 144. Altior was given a rating of 170 after winning the Game Spirit before this.

Those rated 160+ are 8 from 15 since 2012. Gaelic Warrior top rated last year. El Fabiolo was 162, Jonbon 159.

Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir both had 3 lbs in hand over Footpad over hurdles according to the handicapper. 2013 Simonsig second top-rated hurdler, 2012 Sprinter Sacre lowest hurdle rating 145 of first 4 home.

21 of last 24 rated at least 142 over hurdles. Not Western Warhorse, Voy Por Estedes nor Put The Kettle On.

12 of last 18 had won a Pattern race over hurdles (not El Fabiolo, the Kettle, the Duc, Captain Chris, Sprinter Sacre nor Western Warhorse). Only six of the last 21 spent more than one season over hurdles. Gaelic Warrior had 9 runs over hurdles going back to being a three yr old in France.

19 of the last 24 had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences. Gaelic Warrior that Xmas Limerick G1 when Patrick fought with Danny. 7 of the past 12 had won at least to Grade 2 level over both hurdles and fences. Not El Fabiolo nor Edwardstone.

Racing Post Ratings - In the last 23 renewals, 18 horses came with a recent hurdle RPR of 160+. 10 won, four others placed. Shishkin and Footpad RPR 162 in previous season. None in last two years. Gaelic Warrior had managed a 158, Jonbon only 155 for beating El Fabiolo at Aintree. I'm not a big fan of RPRs, just somebody else's and another opinion?

27 from last 33 had won at least 50% of their completed chase starts. Duc De Genievres only one to break this stat run going back to Captain Chris 2011. He had only one win from 4 runs. 30 of last 37 had won at least twice over fences. (Again the Duc broke this, only one win, three other exceptions were trained by M/D Pipe, Forpadytheplasterer had been 2nd in three Grade 1 chases). Put The Kettle On, Un De Sceaux and Azertyuiop only winners since Anaglogs Daughter in 1980 to make most of the running. P Townend jogged past them up the straight 2024 and 2023. Douvan led from the 3rd when Ruby got bored. Footpad 2018 picked up the pieces as Davy Russell and Aiden Coleman both blew their chances by setting a ridiculous pace.

Last 28 no more than 6 runs over fences. Gaelic Warrior had a first time hood breaking a 0 from 9 WPM losing sequence going back to 2016. Only Western Warhorse of the last 23 wore blinkers. And that also was first time. 29 of last 32 winners had at least 7 runs over hurdles/fences. El Fabiolo only 5 in total, Edwardstone had 15 such runs. Not Western Warhorse, also 5. El Fabiolo, with two, became the 6th winner since 1987 to have had less than 3 chase runs. Shishkin and Footpad had won 3 chases, Edwardstone, Altior and Put The Kettle On had won 4 chases each.

12 from last 18 had won over at least 2m 4f. Gaelic Warrior won a 3m G1 Punchestown Nov H. Not El Fabiolo, never tried, nor Edwardstone, only 3rd the season before in an Aintree h'cap. Shiskin, the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, Put The Kettle On three times over that trip, The Duc at Gowran, Footpad at Auteuil. Altior had beaten Black Corton 63 lengths in a match but over just 2m 2f. Not Forpady, only also had won over just 2m 2f. Nor Sprinter Sacre, only 2nd in an 2m 4f novice hurdle. Not Douvan, only 2m 1f.

Only 16 from last 24 had won a Chase by Tingle Creek Day (7th December). Not El Fab, the Duc, Captain Chris, Well Chief or any of the four before Douvan. Not particularly relevant, methinks, but its here..

SUPREME NOVICE/ARKLE DOUBLE - Becoming fashionable. Shishkin, Altior and Douvan first since Flyingbolt in 1965 to do a Supreme-Arkle double. And Flyingbolt was rated 210. Seven others have tried. Un De Sceaux didn't come via the hurdle route because they already had Vautour. Other recent triers Al Ferof 3/1 2012 and Champagne Fever 11/4 jt fav 2014 caught on the line by Western Warhorse. To credit Ruby, he went on RUK later that year explaining in detail why and when he should have kicked on a bit earlier that day. Simonsig had strolled a Neptune. Sprinter Sacre 3rd in Supreme Novice before winning here. He had finished behind Al Ferof in the hurdle, Somersby 3rd in Supreme Novices before 2nd here 2010, Kalahari King 4th in Supreme Novice '08 before 2nd here '09. Noland won Supreme '06, 3rd here '08. 2023 Constitution Hill attended to other business. Marine Nationale didn't come after being trounced at 4/7 in the Irish Arkle.

To summarise - The last three Supreme winners to come, won. Slade Steel has it all to do.

Shishkin became the first to do the double with the Lightning Chase winner at Doncaster late January. Since 2010 only 4 have attempted it, the shortest price and probably best other performance here was Vaniteux 8/1, fell two out when still pitching. Tommys Oscar nr 2023. JPR One 7th here last year.

COURSE FORM - Only El Fabiolo, Un De Sceaux and Voy Por of the last 20 winners had never run here before. Western Warhorse had been 2nd in a Cl3 hurdle off 125. The other 16 had 'good' course form. Definition as follows. Either a course winner or 'decent' run at a previous festival. Gaelic Warrior had been 2nd in a Boodles when defeat was unthinkable, and then 2nd in a Ballymore behind Impair Et Passe. Stat stretched to include Edwardstone, 5th in the 2020 County, the Duc, 5th beaten 9l behind Samcro in the Ballymore, Forpadytheplasterer had finished 4th in another 'Ballymore'. The other 13 had also either won at least a G3 here or been placed in G2 or G1. Shishkin and Altior both won Supremes. Footpad has been 3rd in a Triumph and 4th in a Champion Hurdle. Put The Kettle On won the November G2 Arkle Trial. Sir Gino, Majborough, L'Eau Du Sud.

15 of last 21 ran at previous year's Festival. Not El Fabiolo. Edwardstone 5th in the County.

Boreen Prince 1985 last runner up in Champion Hurdle to win this the following year. Overturn failed in 2013. Melon went elsewhere. Not relevant this season.

Apart from The Kettle and Sizing Europe all winners since 1966 had had a run since Jan 1st.

STARTED ON THE FLAT - 0 from 30 since Contraband 2005. Only two to try in last six were Effernock Fizz 6th 2023 and Allmankind 5/1 4th of five 2021.

Kingmaker (Warwick, Feb 15th) prep race with best current record. Winner of that has finished 0123U1263412F in this. Master Chewy fell last year when running well, Jonbon won a match against Calico, Edwardstone won both. Allmankind 4th Rouge Vif 3rd 2020.

No Scilly Isles winner has doubled up in last 22. Nickle Back went unsuccessfully to Aintree. The previous two, Gerri Columbe and L'Homme Presse both went up in trip. 2020 Sporting John couldn't jump. Itchy Feet and Defi De Seuil went to the Marsh/Turners.

Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton December won by Jonbon, Edwardstone, Shishkin, Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig. Sir Gino.

TIMES - This race is usually run in a time under 4 minutes 3 secs. Gaelic Warrior 4.08 in soft, El Fabiolo 3.55 in soft. Edwardstone 3 51 in G to S. Shiskin did 3 53 in soft. Kettle - 4 mins 8 secs proving 2m 4f stamina important. 2019 Duc de Genievres 3 mins 59, 2018 Footpad 4 mins 2 in heavy going, Altior 3.55 Douvan 3.49, Un De Sceaux 3.51, 2014 3mins 47 2013 Simonsig did 4 mins 2 (in soft ground).

16 of last 26 winners had already won a chase in a time under 4 minutes 1 second or had posted a time under 4 minutes in at least a Grade 2 Hurdle. Not Gaelic Warrior, nor the Kettle nor the Duc. Last year's winner was all about stamina and The Duc had also only won a chase over 2m 4f. (El Fabiolo 3.59 in the Aintree novice hurdle. Edwardstone 3.59 Warwick, Shiskin 3.55 in a Wayward Lad, Footpad 3.45 Irish Champion Hurdle, Altior 3.46, Douvan 3.48 in respective Supremes). Altior 3.54 in a Wayward Lad jog. Exceptions also include Western Warhorse, Or Royal and Tuitchev who all had yet to contest a 2-mile chase although the latter had been 6^th in the previous years Champion Hurdle. Also Tidal Bay who had posted a time of 4mins 6 over 2m ½ furlong when 2nd at Doncaster, Captain Chris, a course hurdle winner and G2 Pendil winner last time out and finally Simonsig, a Festival G1 winner.

2020 contenders best times.

Wayward Lad Kempton - Sir Gino 3.48 6 secs faster than Master Chewy 2023. Both G to S

2m Cheltenham November - L'Eau Du Sud 3.55. Also 4.08 G1 Sandown

Irish Arkle - 2m 1f -

BREEDING - 13 of the last 30 winners were FRE Bred from about 25% of runners. Only two last year, best Il Etait Temps 3rd. Four from nine strong field in 2023 including the 1-2-3. 6 from 11 in 2022 including the 2-3. Includes all Willie's last six Arkle winners except Gaelic Warrior. 15 of the 30 weren't including Edwardstone and Shishkin. FRE Bred has been placed at least in 19 of the last 24. 2021 Eldorado Allen. Four from a field of 11 2020, best 2nd and 3rd. 2019 Duc De Genievres was the only French Bred in the field. Footpad FRE. Douvan was bred in France but is by Walk In The Park, an Irish sire. (The sire of Min, as well). Altior was Irish bred by High Chapparal. Sir Gino, Majborough, L'Eau Du Sud are all (FRE)

Gaelic Warrior became the 14th German bred to have run. Well Chief hacked home, there have also been two seconds and a third. Notebook and Lalor didn't help the cause.

Put The Kettle On retired the MARES stat. Kruguyrova '08 only placed mare of ten to run in the past 21 years. Previous mare to win obviously Anaglog’s Daughter ‘80. Three unplaced between 2023 and 2022 reewals. Still 7lb allowance.

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