Ultima Handicap Chase

HEADGEAR - No headgear for Chianti Classico or Corach Rambler in either of his wins. 11 wore headgear last year. Meetingofthewaters 3rd in a hood was the only headgear wearer in the 8 finishers. 10 other qualifiers. No headgear wearers in the first five home 2023. 10 tried, three first timers. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Sue Smith in 2021. Vintage Clouds' 28th Chase, 11 yrs of age, beaten in the Ultima four times. Let's put cheekpieces on him for the first time. The only runner in the field wearing any sort of headgear for the first time. 28s. The Conditional, Beware The Bear, Un Temps Pour Tout (both times) and The Druids Nephew all won wearing their usual blinkers and cheekpieces respectively. Holywell wore blinkers for the first time over fences when winning. The only other time he had worn them was to win the Pertemps in 2013. Both the previous two winners to him wore cheekpieces as did the 2nd in 2012, Alfie Sherrin for the first time, Golden Chieftain 6th time.

An Accordion 2008 makes it 10 winners from the last 17 and 9 from the last 13. 2022, 8 of the 24 wore headgear, Tea Clipper and Lostintranslation cheekpieces for the first time. Best finishers Tea Clipper 4th at 12s, Our Power 5th. 2021 four headgear wearers, Vintage Clouds, see above. In 2020, 15 of the 23 runners wore some sort of headgear, including Kildisart, 2nd in first time cheekpieces. In 2019, 11 wore some sort of headgear, best behind the blinkered Beware The Bear was Flying Angel 5th in his usual visor. In 2018 five wore some sort of headgear, the fastish finishing Shantou Flyer, 2nd in a first time visor the best performer.

Bar Chianti and Corach, the only other winner in last 13 not to wear any sort of headgear was Coo Star Sivola in 2008, the favourite, a novice running in his sixth chase. All three were novices, all four wins when lightly raced over fences.

AGE - Croco Bay (2019 Grand Annual), The Package (2015 Kim Muir), Spot the Difference ’05, Uncle Ernie ’97, Foyle Fisherman ’91 and Three Counties ’89 are the only 12 year olds to have won a race at the Festival since ’84. None of them won this race.

So, Vintage Clouds at 11 yrs first horse in double figures to win since Chief Dan George as a 10 yr old in 2010. The Package 2014 the only other horse aged 11yrs or over to be placed in this since ’97. 57 aged 11 and above have tried. Three last year, Chambard finished last. Poor old Highland Hunter led down the hill, then collapsed and died. RIP. 2023 Top Ville Ben on his own PU. Two in 2022, best the 11 yr old Death Duty in 6th. Bar Vintage, two other 11 yr olds in 2021 finished last and PU. 2020 Cogry PU. Nineteen 10 yr olds over the last six renewals. They may be still out looking for the three from last year.

Ages of the 1-2-3-4 last year were 7-9-7-8. 2023 9-7-7-6. 2022 it was 8-6-7-7. Vintage Clouds was chased home by the 7 yr old favourite and an 8 yr old. 2020 nothing older than eight in the first four home. 2019 first four home were all nine yr olds. In 2018 none of the 18 runners were aged older than nine years. In total 37 horses aged in double figures ran in the last nine years, apart from Vintage, Buywise 4th in 2017 the only one to be placed. (If looking at 11/12 yr olds in future, Vintage Clouds had previously finished F328 in this race, The Package and Uncle Ernie had been placed no less than 3 times at previous Festivals, Croco Bay twice. Spotthedifference had already won the Cross Country Race twice that season. He was only getting going in 2005).

Before Vintage, Flyers Nap '97 last winner older than 10 yrs and he was a previous Festival chase winner.

SIX YR OLDS - The novice Coo Star Sivola 2018 first six year old winner since Antonin '94. Two 5 yr olds PU over the last two years. 6 yr old Victtorino PU last year, two ran 2023, best The Goffer in 4th. 2022 Gericault Roque in 2nd the only six yr old to run. None ran 2021, Elwood fell early 2020. None ran 2019. Behind Coo Star in 2018 two others finished in the first eight.

NOVICES - In the last 16 renewals, six have been won by novices and seven by second season chasers. Be aware of the new novices run qualification. Fork Lightning in '04 was the first novice in 30 years, then Dun Doire ’06 who was still technically a novice but had already won a Thyestes Chase. He was followed by Wichita Lineman, Holywell, Un Temps Pour Tout, obviously the first time, Coo Star Sivola, Corach Rambler 2022 and Chianti Classico last year. 2010 might have been a sixth winning novices but for a poor enough ride by Timmy Murphy on The Package or even Bensalem who fell 2 out when going very well in the same race.

Last year, four novices lined up in a field of twenty. Trelawne fell at the 2nd, the other three finished 1st, 3rd and 6th of eight finishers. 2023 Monbeg Genius 3rd and The Goffer 4th. Only three qualifiers. Also Vintage Clouds (the younger), Singlefarmpayment (rogue), Green Flag, White Star Line, Our Mick, Reve De Sivola and Ogee all recently placed as novices. In 2022 we had nine novices in the 24, as well as Corach, we had Oscar Elite in 3rd and Tea Clipper 4th. Novice winner ratings Fork Lightning first, 136, 129, 142, 145, 148, 142, 140, 143. 2021 novices finished 2nd, 5th, 7th and 10th.

Mirroring this 15 from the last 19 had no more than 10 runs over fences. This was Chianti Classico's 4th chase. Ballsy. Corach Rambler, second time, his 9th chase. The Conditional had 10, Beware The Bear was a third season chaser with only 10 previous runs. Corach, first time and Coo Star were running in their sixth chase, Un Temp's second win was only his seventh chase. Wichita Lineman three. Vintage Clouds was running in his 28th chase!

All the novice winners above bar Corach Rambler and Dun Doire had previously won a hurdle with a first prize of at least £10k.

FESTIVAL FORM - 14 from last 28 placed at least at a previous Festival. 14 hadn't. Chianti Classico PU in the Albert Bartlett. Corach Rambler first time obviously, on Festival debut. Had a CD win that season. Vintage Clouds previously placed twice in this. The Conditional hadn't run before at the Festival but had a CD in October. Beware The Bear 4th in this in 2018 the year before his win, Coo Star 3rd in Fred Winter 2016. All bar Corach first time, The Conditional and Golden Chieftain 2013 of the last 17 had run at a previous festival. First two had CD that season in handicaps, Chieftain had finished 3rd in that season's G3 December H'cap Ch.

History of horses being placed more than once in this, including Corach Rambler obviously, The Goffer 5th and 4th recently. Big River (5th 2019 after being 4th) Beware The Bear, Vintage Clouds, Un Temps Pour Tout, Holywell, Our Mick, The Package (3 times), Juveigneur, Irish Hussar, Kelami, Ad Hoc, Unguided Missile, Boraceva. Bensalem may well have been. 2022 Oscar Elite, third and then 5th 2023 had previously finished 3rd in an Albert Bartlett. Tea Clipper 4th 2022, had been 3rd in a Coral Cup. Happygolucky 2nd 2021, previously 4th in the Martin Pipe. Discorama 3rd in 2020, 2nd in NH Chase 2019. Fair Along, 4th in 2011, had been previously placed in a QM and an Arkle. Look for The Goffer, Twig, Meetinofthewaters, Famous Bridge.

WEIGHT CARRYING - Four of the last seven under 11st. Chianti 11-4, Corach Rambler 11 5 after 10 2, Vintage Clouds 10 11, The Conditional only carried 10 6 but Beware The Bear 11 8, Un Temps Pour Tout 11 12, 11 7, The Druids Nephew 11 3, Holywell '14 with 11 6 have all augmented the 'over 11st' theory since 2011. Bensalem 2011 with 11 2 first to carry more than 10st 12 to victory since Unguided Missile's 11st 10 in '98. 12 0f the 23 last year over 11st. Only one horse last year carried under 11st. 2022 Frodon off 164, there were only himself and Lostintranslation over 11st. Third and fourth in 2021 were the two top weights. Coo Star Sivola carried 10st 13lbs (minus Lizzie Kelly's 3lb claim). In 2017 1st and 3rd were the two top weights, in 2016 all four placed carried at least 11st 5lb. Holywell had 11st 12lb in second. Hard to suggest any hard and fast rule.

In 2012 Alfie Sherrin (1lb wrong) was the third winner out of 69 running from out of the handicap (only Maamur ’96 has won more than 3lb ‘wrong’). 2nd and 3rd in 2022 were 5lbs and 4lbs wrong.

HANDICAP RATINGS - Since 1983 the ratings of winners between 129 and 150. Chianti 143, Corach 146 and 140, Vintage 143, The Conditional 139, Beware The Bear 151, Coo Star Sivola 142, Un Temps Pour Tout off 155. Going back from 2017, Un Temp 148, The Druids Nephew 146, Holywell 145. Golden Chieftain 132. To summarise, 10 of the last 12 between 139 and 151.

Last 23 had all recorded their best performance as assessed by RPR (Racing Post Ratings) over at least 3 miles. The last 17 had achieved minimum RPRs of 143. Chianti 149, Corach 152, 147, Vintage 159, The Conditional 145, Beware The Bear 156, Un Temp 163. This stat won't do much to cut out numbers. It's just someone else's opinion.

IRISH TRAINED - Before Youlneverwalkalone ‘03 and Dun Doire ’06 the last Irish trained winner was Arkloin ’66 carrying 12st 5lbs. The former pair came here having both just won major Irish handicaps. White Star Line 3rd 2013 from 4 triers between 2012 to 2014. In 2015 two came, Grand Jesture 2nd at 25/1, Gallant Oscar 3rd at 9s. In 2016 Morning Assembly in 4th best of the three. In 2017 three came, best Noble Endeavour in third. Even Clarcam finished 9th. In 2018 there wasn't a single Irish trained runner in the race. In 2019 four were unplaced, including the ill fated Up For Review. I believe he was Willie Mullins's first ever runner in the race. 2020 Discorama 3rd and Elwood (F). 2021 two came, 6th and 9th. 2022 seven gave it a go, best Death Duty 6th, Noble Yeats had a Grand National prep jog in 9th. 2023 Three triers achieved 2nd and 4th. 2024 Willie's getting closer with Meetingofthewaters 3rd. Six other invaders including The Goffer, 5th. Irish Trained 0 from 45 since 2006.

Lucinda Russell has had five runners in this finishing 11454.

Tony Martin has had five runners in this in the last 16 years, one winner and two placed.

M. and D Pipe. - Two PU in 2023. Gericault Roque (9s from 11s on course) a gallant 2nd in 2022. Un Temps Pour Tout wins '16 and '17. Well targeted. Three runners unplaced between Un Temps Pour Tout and the Roque. Great Endeavour still in contention when fell 2011. The Package 2nd 2014 also placed in 2010 and 2012. An Accordion won in '08. None of the latter priced above 11/1 on their first effort. Un Temps returned 11s and 9s, well punted on both wins.

N Henderson - Two winners and seven placed from his last 26 runners (Ma Filleule 33s 2nd 2013 but his unpl including Quantitiveeasing 11/2 jt fav. Gold Present 10s). Beware The Bear 2019 first success since the classy Marlborough in 2000. (He was good) His placed horses returned between 11/2 and 66/1. Doesn't help. All a bit too hot for Pym The Pig, OK Corral, Burbank, Brave Eagle and Excello between them since 2020. 2018 Beware The Bear 14s best of his in fourth.

JonJo ONeill has had 3 winners in the last 14 and 3 runners up this century. Monbeg Genius 3rd 2023 but PU last year. No winner since Holywell 2014. Quarenta BD 2020. Minella Rocco PU 2019. Go Conquer ran well in 5th 2017.

Paul Nicholls yet to win this - 0 from 23. Threeunderthrofive 8th 2023 under A P Heskin. Frodon off 164 'struck into' 2022. Give Me A Copper, alleged good thing at 9/1, beaten when fell 2019. 2018 Vicente 20s PU. 2017 Caid De Berlais fell early, Ibis De Rheu unpl, 2016 Southfield Theatre 16s BD. 2015 Black Thunder carrying topweight unpl. 2014 Pacha Du Polder 50/1 unpl but he liked the (Fox)hunters more.

PROFILE - 27 from last 30 had won over 3 miles (Alfie Sherrin and Un Temps Pour Tout (first time) had both won a 3m hurdle, the latter in France). Exceptions - Bensalem '11, Rough Quest ‘95 and Frenchmans Creek’ 02 but those had been placed over three miles in at least two of their last three runs. 11 of last 34 winners (including Alfie) had already tried 4 miles sometime during their career including Vintage Clouds, 3rd in a Scottish National. 23 hadn’t. Corach Rambler was about to in 2023. The Conditional didn't stay last time out in the Warwick Classic. Corach Rambler (first time) had outstayed a 1/2 shot over 3m on soft ground at Carlisle. Takes some doing.

21 from the last 27 had won a handicap chase Class 3 or above. Exceptions were four English trained novices, Bensalem (who didn't try a handicap between The Festival 2010 and 2011) and Alfie Sherrin. Un Temps Pour Tout had yet to win a chase but had been second to Native River in a G2 Newbury novice. All the exceptions had previously won a hurdle worth at least £10k to the winner. Only Fork Lightning of the novices had not won at least a Cl 2 Hurdle.

GRADED CHASE WIN? - Corach Rambler and Un Temps Pour Tout (both 2nd time, obviously) join Vintage Clouds (G2 Peter Marsh) and Joes Edge 2007 to be the only winners this century to have previously won a Graded chase before winning this. Beware The Bear had won a Listed Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle.

BACK TO BACK WINS? - Corach Rambler 2023-2022 and Un Temps Pour Tout 2016-2017 first since Scot Lane 1982-1983. Used to be one of the great stats. This century only four others have tried in successive years. 2011 Chief Dan George Fell, 2014 Golden Chieftain Upld, 2019 Coo Star Sivola PU. Vintage Clouds PU 2022. Holywell went 4th in GC then 2nd 2016, Bensalem Fell with race at mercy 2010, then won 2011. Unfortunately Chianti Classico is injured.

Corach Rambler with a U (Ascot, Reynoldstown, 5 out, still in contention) became the first to win with a letter as their last form that is F, P, U or B since Flyers Nap in 1997. The race was known as the Astec Buzz in those days. Last year Meetingofthewaters U, 3rd, Famous Bridge U, 4th. Two unplaced in 2021, 2020 No Comment followed an F with an F, 3 in 2019, best Vintage Clouds 2nd. 5 tried 2018, best Beware The Bear in 4th (P). Only Vintage Clouds and Bensalem of the last 23 had more than one career fall before winning.

All former winners at least two runs this season. 19 from the last 25 no more than 4 chase starts that season. Corach (first time) and Coo Star Sivola's 6th that season, Holywell's 6th chase in 2014, Golden Chieftain's 8th run since October.

12 of the last 17 had run in the past 45 days (24th January ish). Chianti 59 days, Corach 2nd time 108 (not seen since Newbury Coral Cup) Corach Ascot 24 days, Vintage Clouds 3rd at Kelso 25 days earlier. Not The Conditional 59 days, not Beware The Bear, not seen since winning at Cheltenham on New Years Day. Not Wichita Lineman. The four previous winners before Beware The Bear had all run at Cheltenham Trials Day.

4 of the last 23 runners up in Kempton's Racing Post Chase/Coral Trophy Chase went on to Cheltenham that year to run in 3 mile + chases. Two winners. '00 Marlborough in this, '97 King Lucifer Kim Muir. The others were L'Ami who finished 4th in the Gold Cup and Possol unplaced in this '09. N/A last few years as the Kempton race has lost its kudos. However 2022 Our Power was 3rd at Kempton before finishing 5th here. Won at Kempton last year but straight to the National. Didn't stay. Antonin 1994 the last one to do the double. 2024 Al Dancer waited for the Badger Beer.

We Ignore those that finished unplaced that Racing Post/Coral Chase. 20 tried recently, three again unplaced in both 2022, improvement in 2020 with Whatmore 4th achieved the same place in the 2m 4f Novice Handicap and Kildisart 5th at Kempton, 2nd here.

14 from last 20 'held up in rear' or 'well off the pace', 'midfield' Cianti 'prominent'. Corach Rambler seems best ridden from the rear. Colin Tizzard didn't think Golden Chieftain would stay the trip and I'm not sure that AP had much choice on Wichita. Beware The Bear, Coo Star, Holywell and Un Temps Pour Tout 'tracked leaders, close up' both years. Vintage Clouds up in the van the whole way.

NEWBURY CORAL CUP - Corach Rambler 4th, The Conditional 2nd, Beware The Bear 4th, Un Temps (10th, 2nd year) followed The Druids Nephew (7th) to become the first Hennessey/Coral Cup runners to win this since Seagram ‘91 (Offshore Account placed in '10 having fallen early at Newbury). Aye Right 2nd both at Newbury and here. Last year five came from Newbury, best Twig 2nd here after 11th in December. Monbeg Genius had been 3rd but disappointed. Three others came 2023, best Oscar Elite 5th after a strange enough ride by H Cobden. Two unplaced outsiders in 2022. The Druids Nephew then went close to emulating Seagram's Grand National success. When he fell at Valentines 2nd time round I could have cried. But Corach avenged that. Druids Nephew also became the only winner ever to come from the 3m 3f h'cap at Cheltenham's November meeting. Abuffalosoldier RIP bt Surrey Quest.

This years Coral Cup possibles - Kandoo Kid, Broadway Boy, Henrys Friend, Senior Chief, Colonel Harry.

Colin Parker Chase runners have finished 91321 in the Ultima Matt Tombs Marble Sands bt Colonel Harry

PRICE - Last five favourites to oblige are Gay Vulgan ’77, Antonin ’94, Wichita Lineman '09, Coo Star Sivola '18, Corach Rambler 6/1jt fav 2023. Up to 2018 this was possibly one of the worst races at Festival for winning favourites. In 2018 Coo Star Sivola became the first favourite to win in 37 consecutive Festival handicaps. As good a reason for backing it as any. Last year The Goffer started 9/2 fav. 2022 Floeur 15/2f unplaced, 2021 Happygolucky 100/30 2nd, 2020 Discorama and Vinndication 11/2 jf favs both placed, In 2019 Up For Review, Coo Star and Mister Whittaker 8/1 co favs all unplaced. In 2017, Singlefarmpayment, the Pricewise Selection, was backed from 10s overnight to 5/1 fav on the off. If only we knew then what we know now. Our Mick was placed at 13/2f in 2013. Bensalem, Marlborough and An Accordion were solid morning favourites but drifted before the race itself. 6 of the last 23 not from the first 4 in the market. As a clerk, you might expect that.

28 of last 33 winners had been 1^st or 2^nd sometime that season. 23 had won. Not Corach (2nd time), Vintage, Un Temps (first time) nor Alfie Sherrin.

HURDLE MARK - In the last 14, 14 runners were 7lb or more below their hurdles mark. 5 won. High-class hurdlers, similar to Un Temps Pour Tout, Holywell & Wichita Lineman, that are novices over fences. Only horse last year below its hurdle mark was Oscar Elite 22s in 3rd.

24 from last 33 had been 1^st or 2^nd in either of last two runs. Not Corach (both times), Un Temps (second time) nor Druids Nephew. The latter two both ran down the field in Cleeve Hurdle. Three other exceptions were Frenchmans Creek, Kelami and Golden Chieftain all 3rd last time out.

Only four of the last 15 won last time out. Last year two came both PU, one died. In 2023 four came, best finishers 3rd, 4th and 5th. 2022 seven came, best was 6th. 2021 three last time winners, best the jolly in 2nd. 2020 six last time winners, best in 4th and 5th. 2019 four last time winners ran. Beware The Bear and Lakeview Lad 3rd. Seven ran in 2018, Coo Star only one in first five.

Apart from Corach Rambler first time, The Conditional and Golden Chieftain, last 25 winners had run previously at the Festival or were aged 8 and below and improving i.e handicap mark is going up. All three aged 8 yrs old, Corach Rambler and The Conditional's h'cap marks was down 2/3lb since Warwick, Chieftain's handicap rating had been previously 10lb higher. Druids Nephew covered both stats.

CONDITIONAL JOCKEYs - Beau Morgan (5) fine ride on Twig last year. Three others unpl. No conditionals placed in previous five years. Three in 2023, best 7th. Five in 2022, best 10th. 2021 Millie Wonnacott (5) finished last. In 2018 Lizzie Kelly (3) wins from James Bowen (3). Brendan Powell (3) on Golden Chieftain became the first claiming jockey to win since at least 1990. Mr Sam Waley Cohen (3) third 2016, JJ Burke (3) 2nd on Grand Jesture 2015 Nico De Boinville (5) second 2014 on Ma Filluele.

Tom Scudamore won this three times and rode the second in 2022. His eight rides in his last decade went 2/5/6/1/1/12/3/F. All Pipe trained.

This century Chianti Classico 6/1 and Corach Rambler (first time) 10s joined The Conditional 15/2 and Un Temps Pour Tout 11/1 (first time) to become the fifth BF last time to win following Bensalem 2011 at 5/1. Chianti 2nd at 9/4 fav behind Flegmatic at Kempton. 36 other beaten favourites last time have tried. Corach was 16/5 fav for the Reynoldstown. The Conditional only one in the field, the tramp. Famous Bridge, The Goffer, Singlefarmpayment, Shantou Flyer and Vintage Clouds all placed carrying that particular cross. A stat not working.

In 2022 there were three BFS last time in the field. Finished 1st, 2nd 3rd. Fantastic, Bryan.

No chestnut winners in the last 21. Love these. None ran last year. Five unplaced in 2023, Ben Dundee 11th 2022.

NEXT RACE>