Boodles Fred Winter Novice H'cap

Hurdle

Evidence

The Winners - This race began in 2005 with a 20/1 Irish winner, next a 40/1 shot of Charlie Egerton's which led from 4 out. Some sanity was regained with Gaspara, a Pipe trained 9/2 favourite. She came straight from winning the Imperial Cup and led here the whole way. Then Crack Away Jack with a lovely smooth Carberry ride, 'held up'. Silk Affair outstayed them all and Sanctuare the fav, in 2010, was an armchair ride for Ruby. In 2011 What A Charm had a Irish flat rating of 105 and wandered in here with a hurdle handicap of 115. Couldn't jump at all but with that Flat rating, didn't really need to. In 2012 N Henderson's 4 timer on the day was completed by Une Artiste, another 40/1 shot. The winner in 2013 was a 25/1 shot trained by G Elliott who I don't remember mentioning the words Flaxen or Flare at the Belfast Preview Night nine days earlier.

In 2014 Hawk High 33s trained by Tim Easterby, was a rare and welcome Northern Trained festival winner and the first for Brian Hughes, the Champion Jockey. In 2015, Qualando at 25s, the Paul Nicholls third string beat the Paul Nicholls second string, the trainer's third winner of the day. Next, in 2016 Diego Du Charmil the 13/2 P Nicholls second fav (and plot) won having been fortunate in about three counts. Two Irish fell when coming with wet sails, his own stable companion got a bit hampered at the last and may have won in another couple of strides.

Flying Tiger in 2017 at 33s from the Nick Williams yard gives Richard Johnson his first Festival winner in three years. A horse with Tiger in its name had won the 4 miler the day before. That might have helped? In 2018 another unloved 33/1 shot, Veneer Of Charm (50s on machine) with a flat rating of 75, completed another on the day trainer treble in this race, this time for Gordon Elliott. In 2019 Joseph O'Brien, ably aided by Kevin Blake as his race planner, returns some sanity to finding winners in this with a well punted 7/2 favourite, Band Of Outlaws. Joseph's first outright Festival winner.

In 2020, Aramax had been the rage for this since winning the same Naas Novice hurdle as Band Of Outlaws 12 months earlier. But not the rage on the day. Mr Nicholls probably talked Barry Geraghty onto Mick Pastor instead with the first time hood. First time hood in hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival? Does he not know? Aramax, 5/1 fav in places in the morning, available at 12s on the machine pre race, industry SP 15/2. Mark Walsh never had a moment's worry. JP's fourth winner on the day. 2021 the madness returns with Jeff Kidder at 80s, the complete outsider of the field. Yes, sure, and there are still people tipping up horses for this in early January. See Upping The Ante.

2022 pre race Brazil drifted from 8s to 18s on the machine and was broadsided early by Willie's 13/8 fav certainty, Gallic Warrior who hadn't been told that Cheltenham was left handed. Fine winning ride by Mark Walsh. Brazil had also come straight from winning that Naas Novice Hurdle. 2023 young Michael O'Sullivan claiming 5 lbs doubled up on the day after his win on Marine Nationale. Another Boodles winner coming from that Naas 4 Y O hurdle.

2024 - You couldn't give Lark In The Mornin away. 9/1 from 6s. Wouldn't like the heavy ground, we were assured. JJ Slevin came round the wide outside and his Flat rating of 93 did the rest. Another one for Joseph.

9 of the 20 winners won last time out (and also eight that finished second). But only four of the last 13. Four of the last six came straight from Naas. Dabiroun and What a Charm were both maidens and along with Flaxen Flare had been well beaten in a Irish G1 or G2 hurdles on previous run. But not Veneer Of Charm. Last of seven finishers in a Navan rated novice. Both Flying Tiger and Une Artiste finished 4th in the G2 Adonis at Kempton last time out. Une Artiste and had previously won the Cl2 Victor Ludorum at Haydock. Hawk High had finished last in a Cl2 Novice at Haydock. Qualando won a Cl4 all aged Novice at Exeter. 4th in a Listed hurdle in Auteuil. Diego Du Charmil last race was to finish 2nd in a £17k French hurdle. 'Rating of 133 looked kind' said Mr Nicholls. Sure did. Lark In The Morning had shown promise in three juvenile maidens. No bigger than 3/1 in any of them.

ALREADY A HANDICAPPER? - Only Gaspara has come from the handicap hurdle route. Won Imperial Cup at Sandown 4 days before. One no hoper last year. Penalised runners are two winners from seven qualifiers. (Gaspara and Silk Affair). 2021 Balko Saint 11th only won to try since 2018. Two ran last year, nowhere.

Lark In The Mornin, Diego du Charmil, What A Charm and Dabiroun in 2005 the only maidens to win in 20. In 2022, Gaelic Warrior was a maiden, raced only in France. Flying Tiger took four attempts to win a hurdle but only two of those were in the UK. Used to be that all winners took three attempts to win their first hurdle. Brazil won on his fourth attempt. Four of the last 14 winners won on their first attempt over hurdles. Diego Du Charmil was given his rating and P Nicholls was going to do nothing to harm it. Une Artiste and Sanctuaire had been running in France but both won on their first starts in England. 2011 What a Charm hadn't finished better than 5th on any of his three hurdle starts. Aramax and Jazzy Matty had 5 previous hurdle runs.

BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME - One qualifier last year PU. Jazzy Matty killed it in 2023 at 18s. BF last time when only 4th at Naas. Three others in 2023 including Risk Belle in 3rd, Mr Freedom in 5th at 40s. Five tried over the previous four renewals, none better than 6th. 58 beaten favourites (BFs) last time out in GB or IRE have tried to win this. Only Jazzy succeeded. And Diego Du Charmil a BF in France last time.

FILLIES? - No fillies have won any of the last 11. Four last year, best Miss Manzor in 5th. Risk Belle only qualifier 2023, 3rd. However 4 of the last 18 winners have been fillies from only 26 runners in total (15 ran since the last to succeed, no finisher better than 7th before Risk Belle). Mares Novice hurdle on Thursday taking them now.

4 of the last 18 beat older horses on their latest start. Three others had also already run against elders including Veneer Of Charm. Not Lark In The Mornin.

FLAT RATINGS - Top rated horse on the flat has won four. There's also been one second and one third. Lark In The Mornin and Ndaawi 3rd were equal joint on 93. Theory didn't work in the previous seven years. McTigue off 96 PU 2023. Brazil was the third top rated Flat on 86, behind Prairie Dancer 87 (8th) and Too Friendly 87 (5th). 2021 Coltor 5th and Druids Altar 15th both Flat rated 86. 2020 Theatre of War 85, 7th. In 2019 Lethal Steps (102) 9/1 trained by G Elliott and ridden by D Russell finished 19th and last. Second top flat rated was Joseph's winner, Band Of Outlaws on (93).

14 of the 20 ran in the previous 33 days. Lark In The Mornin 57, Jazzy Matty 31, Brazil 31 days, Jeff Kidder 80, Aramax 33, Band Of Outlaws 32, Veneer Of Charm 53, Flying Tiger 18, Diego 133 days, Qualando 19, Hawk High 25.

10 of 19 were French bred or imports. 9 weren't. Brazil IRE, Jeff Kidder IRE, Aramax and Lark In The Mornin both GER.

Six of the last eight numbered in top 12 on racecard. Lark In The Mornin 15, Jazzy Matty 10, Brazil 3, Jeff Kidder 21.

10 of the last 12 had won one of their last three starts. Lark and Diego both maidens. Lark had won a Flat maiden at Listowel.

No winner had run at Cheltenham before. Night Edition 2nd 2021, had been 2nd in January. Last year An Bradan Feasa had beaten Balboa in the Dec 3yr old course race, both nowhere here.

No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules did so in Britain or Ireland. All in France. That is, the rest started on the flat. A nicely thought out stat from Matt Tombs when he wrote the Cheltenham Festival Guide.

15 of the 20 winners were rated between 124 and 134. Not Lark In The Mornin 122, Brazil 139, Aramax 138, Band Of Outlaws 139 nor What A Charm 115. Flying Tiger had been the highest rated to win this of 134. Veneer was 129. Handicap can be now compressed as everyone fights to get in. Tend to be rated 129/130 to guarantee a run however last years ratings only went from 134 to 120.

Easier to say that the last 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 125 and 139. Unlikely to help much.

TIMES - Lark In The Mornin had probably never ran under 4 20 in his three prep hurdles. Jazzy Matty probably ran to 3 58 when 4th at Naas. Brazil 4 09 Naas in soft, Jeff Kidder probably did 4 12 when last of seven at Leopardstown, Aramax 3 55 at Naas, Band Of Outlaws had done 3 52 for 2m on good ground and 4 09 for soft/heavy. Veneer of Charm, Flying Tiger, Hawk High, Flaxen Flare, Gaspara, Shamayoun and Crack Away had winning times in 2 miles in soft under 4 16. Both Dabiroun and What A Charm who had been placed in Listed flat on soft ground. Unhelpful.

12 of the 20 winners had only run the prerequisite three times over hurdles. To get a handicap mark. Three others had run up a sequence of at least 3 wins that season. In Une Artiste's case, the sequence started in France. Qualando only 2 runs in Britain, unsuccessful in 3 runs in France. Aramax 5 runs, three in Ireland. Brazil and Jeff Kidder both had four hurdle runs. Jazzy Matty 5.

BETTINGS STATS ON THE FRED WINTER - In the last 11 years only 24 in total from the first six home have been under 16/1. That's 24 from a possible 66. 20 of those 24 have come from the last six renewals. In 2014 Katgary (P Nicholls trained and unlucky here) in 2nd only one in the first 11 home under 16/1. However the favourite has been placed in eight of the last 15. Milan Tino (who?) 100/30 6th last year. 2023 Terao 3/1 fav, 19th of 20 finishers. Last few winners priced 9/1, 10/1, 80/1, 15/2, 7/2F 33s, 33s, 13/2, 25s, 33s, 25s, 40s. You usually get paid six places in this race.

G Elliott - Four winners in the past 12. In the past 13 yrs has run 27 in total. Two last year, a BD and Ndaawi 12/1 3rd. Three in 2023, 1st and 7th. Five in 2022, best was 7th. As well as his winners, Saint D'Oroux 3rd Recent Revelations 4th 2020, Coko Beach 2nd 2019 all returned at 14/1. Two others placed, Campeador fell at the last 2016 when all over them (pocket talking). For £1 level stakes Gordon is £60.50 ahead in the last 14 years. Mrs Foster ran two in 2020, both unplaced.

D Pipe has had a winner, three seconds, a third and a fourth so far from a total of 16 runners. Gaspara and Ashkazar (2nd) came directly from the Imperial Cup at Sandown the Saturday before. Kazilian 4th 2012. Night Edition his first placed from four runners in total over the past decade. Changed times indeed.

P Nicholls has run 25 French breds in this. 3 winners (in the last 11) and 8 placed. Afadil 8th last year. Bel Ex One (IRE) 3rd 2022 at 28s, Houx Gris 4th 2021 11/2. Seven others unplaced between the last seven years. Liari 9/2 PU last year.

W Mullins - 0 from 22 runners. Three last year, Miss Manzor 18s, 5th. 2023 Risk Belle 3rd 8/1, Gaelic Warrior 2nd, Saint Sam 2nd 2021 when favs, Ceil De Neige 3rd in 2019 and Voix Du Reve unlucky in 2016, Venetia Williams 0 from 9 and Philip Hobbs 0 from 10. N Henderson is 0 from 8 since Une Artiste's 40/1 shock in 2012. His losers since include three favs under 5/1 and three 8/1 shots. They're overbet but he's still in front.

Brazil was right up with the pace from the start but the other Irish trained winners at 9/1 18/1, 80/1 15/2, 7/2 fav, 33s 25s, 9s and 20s, all 'mid div' or 'held up'. Four of the ten Irish trained winners had contested a G1 or G2 race last time. But only Jeff Kidder of the last seen.

Only 5 of the 46 horses rated 120 or less were placed. None from two last year. 1st and 3rd 2011 from 10 runners. Lowest rating in the last five years has been 120 122, 123, 129, 124, 119. Mr Freedom 5th 2023 off 120.

JOCKEYS Michael O'Sullivan (5) only conditional jockey to win in the last 12. Three other conditionals have won. Nina on Dabiroun when she was claiming 5lb (second female rider to be successful at the Festival in non amateur races), Andrew Glassonbury on Gaspara and, Jeremiah McGrath on Une Artiste also both claiming (5). Tom Harney (7) second on Eagles Reign 80s last year. Philip Byrnes (5) second on Byker 2023. In contrast, first four home in 2022 were Walsh, Townend, Cobden and Cooper. In 2021 it went Flanagan, Townend, Brennan and Cobden respectively. Nine other conditionals unplaced over the past four years.

BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES etc - Five winners in the 20 races, Jazzy Matty, Hawk High, Flaxen Flare, What a Charm, and Shamayoun. Jazzy the first since 2014. All had worn them before but it was Flaxen Flare's first try with them over hurdles. Last year seven turned up, best Harsh 4th at 40s. 2023 four of the first five home wore cheekpieces, all of them for the first time. Four other headgear wearers in the field, none of them for the first time. Eight in 2022, best third in first time blinkers. Eight more in 2021, best 9/2 fav in 2nd. Six headgear wearers 2020, best finisher in 9th. Four had a go in 2019, best finisher in 6th. 5 headgear wearers in each of the previous two years, best 2018 Style De Garde 2nd. In 2017 best Nietzsche in 3rd. 10 headgear wearers in 2016 Romain De Senam best in 2nd. 3 first-timers. In 2015, 6 headgear wearers, finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th. None first-time wearers but first-time tongue ties did finish 2nd and 3rd. 8 headgear wearers in 2014 with 1st and 3rd. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

HOODS - In seven of the last 11, a horse wearing a hood has finished in the first five home. Didn't work last two years. Three nowhere last year, 2023 Terao fav and useless. Saint Sam, in 2021, in first time. Four in 2020, didn't work. Andrew Mount GG.Com 'First time hoods in Festival hurdles don't win.'

THE LETTER A. IT'S BACK IN VOGUE!! - Thanx to LArk In The Mornin, JAzzy MAtty, BrAzil, ArAmax and BAnd of Outlaws, 14 of the 20 winners had the letter A in the first three letters of their names. That's five of the last six. Aramax was the first winner whose name started with the letter A. Two others, Silk Affair and Une Artiste have 'A' at the start of the second word of their name. In 2016 this theory didn't work from the 7 qualifiers. I am claiming that year a moral victory as CAmpeador was 'mounting a strong challenge' under B Geraghty before crumpling at the last. Can't even claim a moral victory in 2017 or 2018. Best finisher 2017 was DiAblo De Sivola in 5th (Mind you, I've heard some say he was unlucky). 2018 best was PAdleyourowncanoe 4th. 2021 Jeff Kidder buried my 'A' stat but SAint Sam wasn't far away. Also three winners in the past 13 have been called Veneer Of CHARM, Diego du CHARMil and What A CHARM. You people laugh at me but spooky, or what? (Remember, this is a 20 odd runner, 4 yr old handicap hurdle, full of plots. Let's not go mad with the old stats, eh?).