Gaultstats - Cheltenham 2025
The Only Trends You'll Need
'You know the drill. Take advantage of Bryan's obsession, then you do something good for a worthy cause. Can't recommend this enough.' Rory Delargy
Gaultstats 2025 will be my final edition. It's been fun, thanx.
Site to be fully updated by 17th February.
In 2024 the final total for my Just Giving Page to My Name's Doddie Foundation reached £3206, well above the target set. My humble thanks to all who gave. Due to my 2024 personal circumstances, the chosen charity in 2025 will be The British Heart Foundation.
1st January - WHills NR no bet.
'....it's insane, the depth...I love this treasure trove of numbers...' Ross Brierley - In The Know.
'Bryan puts in a great shift with the site every year for excellent causes. I’ve been using away at it.. and, as ever, it’s very good.' - Tony Keenan
'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats...certainly things I didn't know.' - Matt Tombs
'A shining galaxy of race by race stats..each hand-tooled..packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' - surfnturfRP
'Shamefully my first time donating despite your site being possibly my most viewed. A great cause, and to the first of many donations in the future' - Robert on justgiving page.
'Bryan, you do amazing stuff, I wait every year for your wisdom...Great cause..thanks.' - Colm
'There's no place like this on earth.' Ruby Walsh. 'This doesn't happen to people like us.' Maxine O'Sullivan. 'I wish I had the words, this is just a magical place,' Rachael Blackmore. 'One winner at Cheltenham is what it's all about,' Kim Bailey. National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry into the National Hunt Hall of Fame even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country. Michael O'Leary 'The experience of the four days is unbelievable.'
The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all concerned are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.
Using Gaultstats
'If (we) could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' - Samuel Taylor Coleridge
The Jockey Club have made some changes to the Festival in 2025. Matt Tombs, for one, believes that these may not be significant in the overall picture. I'm not sure. Please, caveat emptor. 14 of the 28 races could be affected by the changes. They may make differences for the wonderful pieces of information enclosed within.
For me, there will always be only two Cheltenham Trends Rules.
1. The beauty of any Cheltenham Stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder. This means that you, the reader, decide what is relevant. If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide it's not going to happen this time. Fine. No rule book demands how one should interpret Cheltenham Festival Trends. T'is your money and I won't get offended. I'm not that keen on betting stats, especially those that tell me that the favourite has a 'poor record in this race.' I'm a bit obtuse. The unnamed favourite will win, some year.
2. All stats will pass. It is only a matter of when. Festival Big Beast Trends get shot down most years. Be prepared for that. What do you mean, Langer Dan win back tp back Coral Cups? That can't happen. 3m Novice Cha winner comes straight from bumpers? I'm sorry, you're wrong there. The Bula stat, who was Bula, laughed Constitution Hill. First Supreme/Champion Hurdle double since 1971. Teahupoo, Hatton's Grace runner wins Stayers. The first this century. In 2023, six, yes six of the 28 races were won by horses who had been Beaten Favourite BF last time out. At big SP prices. One of my favourite stats, buried. 2021 - Mare wins Queen Mother. Never happened before. 2020 - Saint Roi, the first since Thumbs Up in '93 to win a County Hurdle on a first ever handicap run. But as one disappears, other 'rock solid' stats will take their place.
Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in (or out).
The General Trends page will cover information and musings that don't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, course winners, Gault's Momentum Theory, Fate of the Favourites et al. I did succeed in making this a little shorter last year. I hope that trend to continue. Click on the links and share the concerns of family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There's a quiz and other stuff, including a stats review of the 2024 Festival. 'Which Bookmaker?' can cause the odd irritation to Twitter bookmaker reps but you won't get the same anywhere else that needs sponsorship to survive.It's my site and my decision not to have any ads. There's no app but should you wish, you can put a shortcut on your phone/PC. The Honours Boards should scroll from left to right on the phone version. I'm not happy that the phone version is not as tidy as the PC but my 'Happiness' tech people tell me there is little they can do.
By 11am each Festival day my selections for that day will be at the top of this page. Feel free to disagree.
Feedback positive and constructive welcomed at https://twitter.com/gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I still don't consider the Punchestown or Galway Festivals as being 'this season.' A big continued thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here. And to John, for his excellent voluntary proofreading.
Good luck. I hope this tool brings you success and profit, please don't forget to give. And let's not take it too seriously. It is meant to be fun.
As ever, a labour of love,
Bryan