2023 - I suggested last year we be wary of fillies priced 14/1 and under. They finished 1-2-3. They carry 10-9. Trifecta £46. No, of course I didn't. Lossiemouth 11/8 fav very impressive. Time 4 15 in soft ground.

2022 - Willie's four-winner Friday kicked off with Vauban. They didn't go much pace and Paul Townend was able to kick away after the last. Time 4 06. Should Pied Piper not made it more of a test of stamina? Not pocket talking. Came from the DRF. An Irish 1-2-3-4-5 from seven of the 12 runners. G Elliott filled the places.

2021 - Rachel's Wonderful Week continued with Quilixios's all the way success from D Pipe's Adagio. Henry de Bromhead, all class, immediately on the phone to thank G Elliot. It was 40 yrs since Baron Blakeney started Martin Pipe's Festival run, David seemed more than pleased to finish 2nd. Didn't prove to be a hot renewal. It would seem that Zanahiyr was a bit keen and may have suffered for that in the final few furlongs. He had been all the rage since Hattons Grace Day with his fast sectionals.

2020 - Goshen was timed by the on-course Racing TV team at being at least 11 lengths in front when Jamie Moore met misfortune at the last. Some might say Paul Townend was riding Burning Victory 'to pick up the pieces.' But he did it well. Burning Victory was a poor enough jumper but had the top Flat rating at 94. The lack of obstacles in the last 7 furlongs of the New Course obviously helped the cause. Paul wasn't that worried at Jamie's misfortune immediately after 'I've had my own share of bad luck.' (Boston Bob 2013 RSA comes to mind but no certainty then). He was more gracious in the parade ring later and W Mullins himself was all class. 'I'm happy for my clients but I'll take no joy from that win. I feel for the Moores.'

TRAINERS - N Henderson has won seven of these, 2019 20/1 Pentlands Hill winning well after the tragedy with Sir Erec. Was there to witness NH's first winner First Bout in '85, the same year as See You Then won his first Champion Hurdle. Doesn't seem 39 yrs ago. NH has won four of the last 15. No runner in the last four years but you would be disappointed if his only entry doesn't turn up in 2024. I know I would. I've 16s. Winner in 2010, 3rd 2011, 2 unplcd 2013 including 5/2 fav, 2nd in 2014. In 2015 the stable got the trifecta up paying £95. Apples Shakira must have been a bitter disappointment in 2018, a well-beaten fourth at 6/5 fav. Mirroring that B Geraghty holds the record for the most jockey wins with five. Richard Johnson on three. Sir Gino

A King, two winners, two 2nds and two 3rds in the last 14. Total 12 runners over the last eight, Tritonic 5th at 4/1 2021, a no-hoper 2020, Redicean 7/1 in 2018.  No entry last two years nor 2024.

P. Hobbs - three winners in 20, Defi Du Seuil winner 2017 was his first runner in four years. None since. P Nicholls two winners in last 15, plus the placed horses behind Our Conor '03 and Calipto unlucky with the tack in 2014. Last runner was in 2020, Solo 4/1 well talked up, rated 157 after a Kempton win, ran with choke out, 8th of 12 finishers. Sir Psycho, a solid 5th in what seemed a strong field behind Burning Victory. Quel Destin and Ecco well beat 2019. No runner previous two years. 2016 Clan Des Obeaux best of his five runners in 6th. Liara

D Pipe stable - Adagio 10s a fine run in second behind Quilixios 2021. Only Kissair '95 has given success since. Apart from Adagio, only seven runners in the last 18, all well unplaced. No entries last two years.

Irish trained - Eight winners, seven seconds and eight third places in the last 11. Six wins in the last eight. Jipcot 9th last year, was the first GB trained home. 12 of the 15 runners Irish trained. A 1-2-3-4-5 in 2022. A 1-3-4 in 2021. Aspire Tower made it a 1-2 in 2020. G Elliott and J O'Brien trained 2nd and 3rd in 2019, 1-2-3 2018, 2-3-4-5 in 2017. To be fair, in the 2017 Belfast Preview night both David Casey as Willie's assistant trainer and G Elliott felt that Defi Du Seuil was unbeatable.  Irish trained strolled it in 2016 with first four home. Aiden/Joseph with Ivanovich Gorbatov followed by the 2-3-4 from W Mullins. All three unplaced 2015. Tiger Roll and Our Conor had first stopped the Irish drought. In Scolardy's year 2002 they had 4 out of first 5 home. Irish trained have 12 Triumph Hurdles. As with many Festival races, Irish trained improving the performance all the time. 7 from 12 runners in 2022, 4 from 8 runners 2021, 6 of the 13 in 2020, 8 of the 14 runners in 2019.

WILLIE MULLINS - A poor enough record, they said. Has definitely improved. Lossiemouth led home a Closutton 1-2-3-4 last year, ran seven. Vauban, Haut En Couleurs 3rd 2021, Burning Victory 2020 his first success since Scolardy in 2002. 2019, three unplaced including Tiger Tap Tap at 7s. 2018, 2nd, 3rd and 5th. 2017, 3rd, 2016 2nd (he trained Apples Jade at that time), 3rd and 4th. 2015 only 5th. 2014. Karges2, MWarm Heart, Majborough, Bunting, Salvator Mundi etc.

GORDON ELLIOTT - Two winners, three seconds, a third and a fourth from 12 runners in the past 14. No runner last year or in 2020. Plus - Henry got Quilixios and Cullentra (Mrs Foster) sent Zanahiyr 3rd. Wodhooh

JOSEPH O'BRIEN - His father was the official trainer for Ivanovich Gorbatov in 2016 but Aidan was quick to give all credit to his son. Nothing last three years, Cerberus, A Wave Of The Sea outclassed 2020. In 2019 Joseph tasted tragedy and success with Sir Erec, Gardens Of Babylon 3rd and Band Of Outlaws winning the Fred Winter. Intellotto, Nurburgring.

DRF G1 - Gala Marceau beat Lossiemouth at Leoparstown, possibly not P Townend's finest moment. Positions reversed at Cheltenahm. Both Vauban and Quilixios won the DRF G1. Fil Dor 2nd in both 2022. Aspire Tower 2nd here, fell at the last in the DRF when well in contention. Garden Of Babylon 3rd here, had been 2nd to Sir Erec in February. Farclas, Tiger Roll and Our Conor came straight from the Leopardstown G1. Scolardy ’02 won the same race when it was a G3 and Commanche Court ‘97 won a Grade 3 event at Punchestown in mid-February. In 2018 Farclas had been 2nd to Mr Adjudicator at Leopardstown, positions reversed at Cheltenham. In 2017 in the G1 Spring Hurdle at Leopardstown Mega Fortune won from Bapaume, then second and third here to Defi Du Seuil. In 2016 Footpad won at Leopardstown from Lets Dance and Ivanovich. Reversed at Cheltenham. Kargesse from Warm Heart and Majborough.

Eight of the last 12 Triumph winners finished in first four in DRF G1 Leopardstown Spring Hurdle. Only Vauban, Quilixios and Our Conor actually won at Leopardstown, Lossiemouth, Farclas and Tiger Roll finished second, Countryside Flame finished 3rd, Ivanovich Gorbatov 4th. 2013 Diakali 2nd at Leopardstown, 4th here. Both Unaccompanied and Hisaabaat won at Leopardstown before being placed here. Also ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham Zanahyir 3rd, Mega Fortune 2nd, Footpad 3rd, Petite Parisienne 5th, Guitar Pete 3rd.

Price - Between 2008 and 2011 none of the first four home started bigger than 20/1. Despite Countrywide Flame at 33s in 2012, the scribes decreed that 'because of the Fred Winter and small fields, outsiders winning the Triumph will never happen again.' But tragedy befell Sir Erec in 2019. Pentlands Hill won well at 20s. Same with Goshen 5/2f, Burning Victory 12s. There had been nothing over 10s since 2012, although Tiger Roll was only 6th favourite at 10s and Farclas 9/1 5th fav of nine runners in 2018. Lossiemouth 11/8 fav.

There has only been one odds-on winner – Attivo at 4-5 in 1974.

Only 12 placed horses in past 26 renewals started at greater than 20/1 SP. Placed horses last year were 100/30 and 12/1. Front three in the market 2022 had it to themselves. 2021 Haut En Couleurs 20/1 in third. Two placed at 20s in 2019 , Sayo 3rd at 33s 2018. In the previous three years all placed 12/1 and under. In 2015 the 1-2-3 Henderson trio all 8/1 and under. 2014 Kentucky Hyden second at 20s, 2013 Sametegal 3rd at 33. Countrywide Flame, the only winner over 20/1 since Duke Of Monmouth '92. Since the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005, apart from Burning Victory, Farclas, Tiger Roll and Countrywide Flame, everything else came from the first four in the market. As a clerk you might expect that.

Only 9 from the last 36 Triumph Hurdle favourites have won (Including five of the last eight, Lossiemouth and Vauban of the last five). Defi Du Seuil, a very generous 5/2, Ivanovich Gorbatov 9/2 and Peace and Co 2/1 all in a row. Before that winning jollies were Detroit City '06, Katarino '99, Mysilv '94 at 2/1. Defi made it only four favs in 26. On course bookies over the last few years getting Zanahyir, Goshen, Sir Erec RIP, Apples Shakira all beat, the latter two being backed from 6/4 to about evens were possibly the bookmaker results of those festivals. Because it is the first race on Cheltenham Gold Cup day, the Triumph is regularly one of the top ten betting races in the whole calendar, Flat or Jumps.

In case you were wondering, Brazil in 2022 Boodles, the first since Ebaziyan 2007 to be the last entires to win a Festival race. Before that, Alderbrook in the '95 Champion Hurdle. Solo was gelded after his disappointing run in 8th. Seemed harsh at the time.

16 of the last 409 were favourite or second favourite last time out. Lossiemouth 1/3, Vauban 2nd fav to Fil Dor at the DRF, Quilixios 4/6 at his DRF, Pentland Hills 5/2 second fav at Plumpton. Farclas joint 2nd fav at Leopardstown, Defi Du Seuil had been a short-priced jolly in his previous six and won them all. Not Burning Victory 7/1 at G3 Fairyhouse or Tiger Roll, Our Conor, Snowdrop nor Zarkandar. Tiger Roll was 16s in the Leopardstown Spring G1.

This century 57 beaten favourites (BF) last time out have turned up. Three winners, Lossiemouth 1/3, Ivanovich beaten at 8/13 Leopardstown and Celestial Halo winner here at 5/1 in 2008, previously BF at 2/5. Fil Dor only qualifier 2022, none ran in 2021, Aspire Tower only qualifier 2020 in 2nd, three in 2019, best Coeur Sublime at 20s in 2nd. Burdett Road, Mighty Bandit, Warm Heart.

February 2020 - Robert Hall was on his last ever day of running the show for RTE Racing at the second day of the DRF. He uttered some immortal stats words to Ted, 'you don't want to be going to Cheltenham on the back of a fall.'  Aspire Tower F at the DRF and then was fortunate enough to finish 2nd here. Never really looked like winning. Spectroscope 2003 won the Triumph after suffering a BD two runs before his Festival win. He's the only Triumph winner this century with a letter in their form that season. The last G1 Festival hurdle winner off the back of a fall was Nichols Canyon who also fell at the last, this time in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He took the Stayers six weeks later. The last novices to win G1s with falls that season were Shishkin, Al Ferof 2011 Supreme, Nicanor 2006 Ballymore. All fell 3 runs before their Festival win. Sorry, I digress. None of the 35 runners over the last three renewals of this had fallen that season.

OTHER FORM RACES - Defi Di Seuil, Peace and Co and Katchit are the only ones to complete the JCB Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham January/Triumph double since the former’s inception in 1985. Hors La Loi did a double up in '99 with the Supreme Novice. Franchoek won the Finesse '08 but beaten by Celestial Halo in the big one. 2013 Rolling Star then fav for this only finished 5th. 2019 JP's Fakir D'Oudairies went to the Supreme to finish 4th as Sir Erec was meant to win this. Fakir's time here on good to soft ground Triumph course 4 mins 6 secs. Galahad Quest not entered 2020 though Night Edition 2nd, filled the same spot in the Fred Winter. 2022 Pied Piper cantered the G2 in 4 08 before third here.Last year Comfort Zone went back to the Flat. Sir Gino from Burdett Road from Scriptwriter in a slow 4 13.

Last Haydock Victor Ludorum winner to be involved in the finish of this was Ninja, 2^nd at 50/1 in ’90. Don't think the double has been done in 50 yrs. Une Artiste did double up with the Fred Winter in 2012. Sir Psycho 2020 and 2019 Quel Destin 2019 both trained by P Nicholls, both finished 5th in the Triumph after Ludorum success. Even spookier, in 2018 Turning Gold went from Haydock to be 5th in the Fred Winter, a sort of form line you might expect from this. 2020 Monmiral went to Aintree instead. 2022 Porticello very impressive in a Haydock bog, started 8/1 for this, 6th. Last year Bo Zenith went to the Aintree G1 where he was beaten on the nod by Zenta.

ADONIS KEMPTON - 4 from last 21 won Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (last were Zarkandar 2011 and Soldatino 2010). 17 didn’t. 2014 Activial and 2013 Irish Saint both went to Aintree. Neither won there. 2015 Beltor won on the bridle at Kempton, 6th here at 7/1. 2016 Zubayr 11/2 and 13th. 2017 Master Blueyes 8/1, then 10th here. 2018 Redicean 'skipped clear' at Kempton, then 7/1 and only 6th here. 2019 Fusil Raffles NR, injured. Solo, 4/1, 8th despite being rated 2lbs lower than the Champion Hurdle winner. 2021 Tritonic, 'impressive' at Kempton, not so here, 5th. This century 16 Adonis Hurdle winners have run in this. Apart from the 4 winners, Well Chief 2nd. (Also Flying Tiger, 4th at Kempton, won Fred Winter in 2017). Knight Salute, 9th here in 2022. Last year, Nusret then finished 3rd at Aintree G1.

To summarise, the last eight Adonis winners to come have been beaten, seven of those eight returned at less than 10/1.

Mysilv 1994 last horse to win five in a row finishing with the Adonis before coming to Cheltenham. Defi Du Seuil 2017 also won five in a row before coming here, His last win was the JCB Trial in late January. Knight Salute unable to follow in 2022.

Alan King has won the Adonis four times. Penzance 2005 his only winner to double up. Recently won it with Mister Blue Eyes, Redicean and Tritonic. See the above paragraph.
 

Burning Victory and Pentland Hills join Zarkandar only winners in 30 odd yrs to be a once-raced hurdler. Didn't work for Saldier 2018, 5th or Zubayr in 2016. Haut En Couleurs fine run in third 2021. Three tried last year, best Rightsotom 200/1 in 6th.

The Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November has provided a placed horse in this in 8 of the last 15 runnings. Hasn't the last two years. 2021 Adagio 2nd in both. Allmankind 3rd 2020. Didn't work in the previous four. 2017 won by Apples Shakira from Gumball. 2016 Won by Defi Du Seuil. Didn't work in 2016. 2015 Hargam 3rd, 2014 Guitar Pete was placed in both. Far West 2nd here 2013. Grandouet placed in both in 2011. '10 Barizan was second in both races. Burdett Road from An Bradan Feasa and Milan Tino.

FILLIES - Not unfancied fillies have a very decent record with their 7lb allowance. Three of Willie's priced under 14/1 last year, finished 1-2-3. Lossiemouth, Burning Victory, Shawiya, Mysilv and Snowdrop all won. The latter four came here on the back of a win. 25 have started 14/1 and under. Those five won and 10 others were placed (Unaccompanied 2nd in 2011). Stats not helped by Apples Shakira and Stormy Ireland in 2018, the latter went off too quick, beaten when fell last at 9/2. 44 others 14/1 and greater, none placed. Only five rags over the past five years. 2016 Apples Jade 2nd at 12s, Lets Dance 11s and 4th. Kargese, Kala Conti, Wodhooh.

Quilixios, Defi Du Seuil, Countrywide Flame and Katchit both broke a long term stat as being the only four of the last 25 to have run over hurdles in Britain or Ireland before October 20^th. Quilixios 13th Oct strolled round Punchestown, Defi cruised around Ffos Las on 15th Oct, the Flame had actually been out twice by that date. Lossiemouth won a Fairyhouse G3 on 4th December, Vauban first jumped a hurdle in public on New Years Eve, Ivanovich 27th December, Peace And Co 13th Dec, Tiger Roll first run 10th Nov, Our Conor 11th Nov. P Nicholls had Zarkardar following Nicky's Soldatino in that their first run in UK was the Kempton Adonis at the end of February. Pentland Hills won at Cheltenham 18 days after winning at Plumpton. Burning Victory 20 days since Fairyhouse.

Against that, since the intoduction of the Fred Winter, only Burning Victory, Pentland Hills and Zarkander in 2011 made their UK or Irish hurdling debut after 10th January.

WINNING FORM - Farclas became the first maiden to win this since David Elsworth's Heighlin in 1980. Vauban, Burning Victory, Pentland Hills, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Tiger Roll, Zarkandar, Made In Japan ’04 and Celestial Halo '08 only other eight winners since ‘90 not to have won twice that season over hurdles. But then Willie never shows any respect for stats. None worse than 4th last time out. All bar Pentland Hills of the last ten ran in at least a G3 last time out. The first three home last year not worse than 2nd last year. 11 of 2022's 12 runners finished in the first three on their previous run. Five of the 2021 eight strong field had won last time out, the other three had finished second.

All bar Burning Victory or Pentland Hills of the last ten had their last run in the Finesse or the Spring Hurdle, the two before that had their last run in the Adonis. (Goshen's previous run had been in an Ascot Juv Hurdle on 18th January).

18 from the last 25 won their previous race. Five others finished second plus Countrywide Flame finishing 3rd, Ivanovich 4th, both in the G1 at Leopardstown.

27 from last 32 either unbeaten in GB and IRE or ran at least 3 times previous (Not Vauban, Farclas, Ivanovich, Tiger nor Celestial who had all only ran twice). Quilixios covered both of these stats. (Pentland Hills rated 73, Vauban four previous Flat runs in France, Ivanovich had four flat runs in Ire, Zarkandar three in France, Countrywide Flame had six hurdle outings before Cheltenham).

28 of the past 30 had passed the post first in at least half their hurdle starts in UK and IRE. (Not Farclas obviously, as a maiden, Made In Japan, one from three, Scolardy 2002 won but was disqualified from 1st last time).

Apart from Our Conor the last 19 winners to have run on the flat all tried at distances of 1m 4f plus (including Vauban, Burning Victory, Pentland Hills and Zarkandar). Our Conor only tried up to 10 furlongs. 18 of last 28 were placed over 1.5 miles or further on the flat (including 10 of the last 15). Vauban had won a FRE listed. Quilixios a FRE bumper, 2020 Burning Victory had the top Flat Rating of 94 and had already won in France over 1m 4f on soft ground. Ivanovich had a Flat rating of 104. Need to have class and to stay to win this? At least one or the other. Lossiemeouth ran once, winning a French 3 yr old hurdle before being sold.

18 of past 29 had won on a 'fast flat' track e.g. Kempton, Market Rasen. Vauban, Leopardstown? Hmm. Not Quilixios, I submit. Fastest time had been 4 02 around Punchestown. Both Tiger Roll and Countrywide Flame won at Market Rasen. Peace and Co 4 01 at Donc. Not Farclas, two runs at Leopardstown both at 4 06. Not Defi Du Seuil. Ran at Ffos Las, Chepstow and Cheltenham. Had times 4 08 at Cheltenham in November, 4 01 at Chepstow. Pentland Hills had done 3 51 secs on Plumpton good ground. He is the only one in 14 not to have contested a Graded race last time. Believe Nico to be credited for convincing NH to run him here.

This year's best times - Chelt Old Course Burdett Road 4 14, Leopardstown 4.05 Kargese.  Sir Gino New Course 4 13. Salver Chepstow 4 19

Defi Du Seuil first winner of the Chepstow Finale Hurdle since Mysilv '94 to do the double. Only Countrywide Flame had run in it since Mysilv and he was well beaten at Chepstow. 2019 Quel Destin win, 4/1 5th at Cheltenham. 2020 Allmankind 3rd bt Cereberus 6th. 2020 Adagio won at a rescheduled Chepstow, then second here. 2022 Portocello 6th. Comfort Zone didn't come. Salver

There is a distant history of 4 yr olds performing well in all aged Conditions races and not following up here and in the Champion Hurdle. They do ok in the Supreme.

All bar Defi Du Seuil, Peace and Co, Katchit and Zaynar of last 25 had their previous run in February. All four last ran in January. Last 25 all ran between 18 and 55 days before. Lossiemouth and Vauban 41, Quilixios, Farclas 40 days. Pentland Hills's 18 days shortest gap this century. Burning Victory 20 days. Duke Of Monmouth '92 - 17th January.

BREEDING - 20 from last 26 bred by a Group 1 winning sire including all of last 19 bar Lossiemouth, Vauban, Soldatino and Our Conor. Lossiemouth by Great Pretender, who only won at Listed level. Vauban by Galiway, also only Listed winner in France, Soldatino's sire Graveron never won a race and Jeremy was only placed at G1 level. (Jeremy sired four Festival winners in 2021) Burning Victory by Nathaniel, Ascot KG winner. Peace And Co by Falco, Tiger Roll by Authorized. Ivanovich Gorbatov by Montjeu. Defi by Voix Du Nord, a Prix Lupin winner. Farclas by Jukebox Jury, an Irish St Leger winner, who himself was by Montjeu. Pentland Hills by Motivator, fast ground English Derby winner. Goshen by Authorized, same sire as Tiger Roll and Nichols Canyon.

Lossiemouth FRE, Vauban FRE, Quilixios GB, Burning Victory FRE (as is Goshen). No FRE placed in 2019, but 3 wins and 3 seconds in the previous five races. Seven of the last nine winners started their careers in France.

FLAT RATING - 64 of last 87 win and placed rated at least 70 on the flat. None of lat year's 1-2-3 had a Flat rating. Vauban 101, Pied Piper 97. Adagio 87, other two in 2022 year not from the Flat, 2020 it was 94, 86, 86 and Goshen 88. Pentland Hills 73 in 2019, 2018 Mr Adjudicator 2nd off 81. 2017 Mega Fortune 77, Best flat ratings were Landofhopeandglory 102 and Master Blue Eyes 88, both well behind. 2016 Ivanovich off 104, Who Dares Win next best flat rating 85 finished second last. No placed horse 2015 had a flat rating though Hargam may have come close with his Listed French flat form. 2014 none of the first three over 70. Both Kentucky and Guitar Pete well under 80. 2013 Our Conor 85, placed horses ex French, no rating. Our Conor the only one of the first 8 home to have a Flat rating. 2012 all placed over 80. 14 placed recently were French NH and Flat without a rating, but Unaccompanied (2nd in '11) was rated 98, '10 Barizan was rated 86 and Alaivan 3rd with 110. '09 Mourad 3rd was 104. ’08 all three passed this one, Spectroscope '03 only winner since '96 rated less than 80 on the flat. .

HURDLE RATINGS - Four of the last 14 winners BHA rated at least 150 from a total of 13 qualifiers. No qualifiers last four years, Blood Destiny top on 146, Lossiemouth 142, Vauban top of 146, 2021 Zanahyir 149. 2020 Aspire Tower 152, Goshen 151, Solo 157. 2019 Sir Erec 151.

HEADGEAR - Only Zaynar '09 (cheekpieces) and Detroit City '06 (visor) of the last 47 to try over the last 19 years have won. Both were wearing headgear in NH races for the first time although Detroit City had won in a visor on the flat as a three yr old. Last year 3 hooded tried, including Gala Marceau in a first time. 2022 four tried, best finisher 8th, 2021 two no hopers, 2020 Allmankind 3rd in hood, Sir Psycho 5th in cheekpieces, neither first time. In 2019 Gardens Of Babylon in first-time blinkers finished third. None ran 2018. In 2017 two ran, best Mega Fortune 2nd, 3 tried 2016 best Footpad 3rd in second-time hood. 4 tried 2015, best Beltor 6th in first-time hood.

2015 - Maximum number of runners cut from 24 to 22. Don't seem to get big numbers these days, 17 the largest field of the last 11. COVID in 2021 may have cut the social runners, eight to post.

SIMON ROWLANDS - JUVENILE HURDLERS

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/features/sectional-spotlight/juvenile-hurdlers

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