Novices - Four winners in the last seven - But neither of the last two. From the last 27 races, nine winners, three seconds, two thirds and two fourths. Seven ran last year, So Scottish best finisher in 7th. Of six novices in 2022, Imperial Alcazar best in second at 7/2 fav. It was a 1-4-5 in 2021 with Coole Cody and Assemble coming in behind the Shunter. Nine of the 23 strong field that year were novices. Coole Cody was a novice chaser at 10yrs of age. Simply The Betts, winner, the flag bearer from three in 2020. Three came in 2019, Spiritofthegames 3rd, Didero Vallis 5th. The Storyteller, novice winner in 2018 from two qualifiers. A 1-2 in 2017 from seven qualifiers. 2016 a 4th from 2 runners. 2015 3rd and 5th from 4 runners. 2012 Pipe trained Notus de La Tour only novice 8/1 fell at the 3rd. 1st and 2nd 2010 from five qualifiers, ’04 Tikram 1st.

All bar The Storyteller and Road To Respect of the last six winning novices had at least placed course form. Those two had never raced here before. The Shunter won a Greatwood. Ping Pong Sivola, 2nd as a novice in '09 also had winning course form. The last six novice winners were rated 140 149, 147, 145, 135 and Tikram at 133.

Nine of the last ten no more than 12 previous chases. Seddon 12, Coole Cody 14, The Shunter 5, Simply The Betts 4, Siruh Du Lac 7, The Storyteller 3, Road To Respect 5, Empire Of Dirt 11, Darna 9, Ballynagour 8 runs, Carrickboy 16 runs. Mister McGoldrick previously third in a QM had 33 previous chases before winning this.

For recency purposes, Coole Cody, Siruh du Lac and Empire Of Dirt won when second-season chasers.

WEIGHT - Seddon 11-0, Coole Cody 11-2, Simply The Betts 11- 4, The Storyteller 11- 4, Mister McGoldrick '08 11-7 and Non So ’06 11-3 are the only ones since Elfast '94 to carry over 11st to victory. That's five in 28 yrs and three of the last 15. Apart from Half Free (three-time Festival winner) and dual winners Elfast and The Tsarevich, no other winner since ’77 carried more than 11st to victory. Mister McGoldrick 2008 is the only horse this century to carry more than 11-4 to victory.

Last year bottom weight was 10-4, Fugitif 2nd under 11-6. 2022 bottom weight 10st, Imperial Alcazar 11-9 in second place. In 2021 11 of the 23 carried over 11st. Top Notch in 3rd carried 11-12. Bottom weight 10-2. In 2020 it was 13 over 11st including the first six home. Bottom weight was 10-9. In 2019 Siruh Du Lac won with 10-8, just seven of the field carried over the 11st, Janika fav with 11-12 finished 2nd, Spritofthegames 3rd with 11-3 (and 6th in 2020 under 11-4). 2018 The Storyteller with 11-4 the only one in the first six over 11st. Eight qualifiers.

2016 Empire Of Dirt 10-11. seven qualifiers. 2015 10 carried over 11st, Buywise best in 3rd 2014, 3 carried over 11st, Colour Squadron 2nd and Johns Spirit 4th. The Ryanair takes the best 155+ rated horses but placed horses here can carry big weights. See Kevin Blake's repeatedly strong views about top weights in handicaps.

RATINGS - Simply The Betts off 149 first in 19 not rated between 128 and 147. See the Honours Board. Seddon 143, Coole Cody 145, The Shunter 140, Siruh Du Lac 141, Road To Respect 145, Empire of Dirt 142, Darna and Ballynagour both at 140 Carrickboy 136, Salut Flo 137. (29 from last 35 not rated above 142). Last ten all rated in the 140s. Ratings band in each race going back have gone from last year 157 - 133, 2022 - 154 to 130, then 157 to 140, 156 to 135. There hasn't been a winner rated 150 since The Tsarevich in 1986.

4 of the last 27 winners out of handicap. Last one Tikram 3lb 'wrong' in '04. '09 Ping Pong Sivola 1lb 'wrong', favourite and 2nd. 2012 two out of the handicap and unplaced. Not likely to happen that much recently although Guy ran in 2022 carrying only 10st.

CARRY A PENALTY? - Eight of the last 19 runners carrying a penalty have been placed. Only one ran in the last six yours, out with the washing. Thomas Crapper only qualifier in 2017, finished 4th. 2011 Holmwood only qualifier and won, '09 sole qualifier Pop was 'going ok when fell 4 out’.

PRICE - The Shunter 9/4F in a field of 23, Simply The Betts 100/30F and The Storyteller at 5/1F (backed from 7s on course) join Salut Flo at 9/2 to be the first favourites to win since Majadou '99 and then before that Political Pop '81. Besides those three favourites and Siruh Du Lac at 9/2 in 2018, the rest the SPs this century range between 12/1 and 66/1. Seddon 20/1, Coole Cody 22/1. Before Siruh the previous 4 winners returned at 14s, 16s, 33s (Darna, the Pricewise day of race tip at 40s), 12s and Carrickboy at 50s. 17 of last 21, 12/1 or bigger.

TRIP - All bar Non So this century had been successful over trips between 2m3f and 2m5f (Non So who may have been, if he hadn’t fallen two out in one such chase).

AGED 10 AND ABOVE - Seddon 10yrs of age. Coole Cody was aged 11 in 2022 (but only a second season chaser). 10 yrs + had been 0 from 58 since Holmwood Legend, Mister McGoldrick 11 yrs when he won (at tote price £146/1) Young Spartacus a 10 yr old winner in '03. Apart from them, in the last 20 years, only 12 others aged ten and above have paid a place dividend. Three others last year at bigger prices than Seddon failed to trouble the scorers. In 2022 Spiritofthegames 3rd at 12s from five runners. 2021, nine had a go, including Top Notch 50/1 3rd and Coole Cody 22/1 4th, both 10 yr olds. In 2020 three qualified, best finisher 8th. 2019, seven ran, all unplaced, 2018 Splash Of Ginge, 25s in 2nd, Ballyalton, 11 yrs, 25s in 4th from five qualifiers. In 2017 Thomas Crapper 7s and 4th, 2014 Tatenen 3rd at 33s, 2013 Tartak 4th, both 10 yr olds, '10 Mr McGoldrick. a 13 yrs old, 33/1 4th.

Therefore, in the last 20 renewals there have been 17 placed aged 10 and above including the five winners. All bar Splash Of Ginge, Holmwood and Tatenen had previous placed course form. Top Notch had been 2nd in both a Triumph and a JLT, Coole Cody won the Paddy Power in 2020 and the Caspian Caviar in 2021. Seddon won a 12k course h'cap hurdle in October. These 17 came from a total of 70 horses aged 10 and above. Prices of the 17 ranged from 7s to 66s. Worth considering, if they are aged 10+ and running in this, it is very likely that a few of them have been round here before and had some success.

PREVIOUS WINS - The last winner to have won a graded conditions race over either hurdles or fences was Mister McGoldrick in 2008. As said above Coole Cody had won two Grade 3 handicaps. Which may be more difficult.

RETURNERS can run well in this race. Two dual winners, Elfast and The Tsarevich. Coole Cody, Spiritofthegames, Mister McGoldrick, Dublin Flyer, Smartie Express, King of the Lot and Fondmort were placed in this on more than one occasion. Palarshan 2nd '07 finished 5th '08. In 2012 Divers finished 4th in this a year after winning the novice handicap chase on the Tuesday. Tartak finished 5th and 3rd in 2012 and 2013, the first time as top weight, 2013 he was bottom weight. Didn't happen in 2017 to 2019 But last Spiritofthegames returned to finish 6th after a third in 2019. Siruh Du Lac disappointed on its return last year. However, Mister Whitaker in 3rd and Ben Dundee 5th had both previously impressed in the Festival Nov h'cap. Look out for Fugutif, Shakem Up'Arry, Gevrey perhaps.

NEW COURSE CHASE FORM - Seddon had never competed a chase on the New Course. Coole Cody had raced on it seven times, winning a Grade 3. The Shunter had never been on it, Farclas won a Triumph, Top Notch 2nd in a Triumph and in a JLT. In 2020 year all bar Ben Dundee of the first six home had rock-solid New Course form. 1st, 3rd and 4th were New Course winners, 2nd and 6th had been placed in G3 New Course h'caps. Before that we had Siruh Du Lac (New Course winner last time). The previous three winners were Irish Trained and had never raced here before.

Probably better classified as - Every winner this century bar three of the last five Irish trained and Great Endeavour (a novice with only 3 runs) had contested a race at the track. Coole Cody, Simply The Betts and Siruh Du Lac join Young Spartacus 2003 to be the only winners this century to have previously won a New Course chase.

22 from last 32 had competed at a previous Festival (the other 10 had less than 12 chase runs, Shunter 5, Siruh 7, Storyteller 3, Respect 5, Empire 11). We know all about Coole Cody but Seddon had finished 7th in a Ballymore behind City Island. Simply The Betts 10th to Summerville Boy in the 2019 Supreme. Four had run in the County. Ballynagour 8th to Carrickboy in 2013, Carrickboy 6th in a Close Bros, Great Endeavour unpl in '09 Coral Cup. Something Wells 'disputing 4th when fell in '08 Close Bros. Mister McGoldrick placed in '06 Queen Mother. Six of the last 18 winners were in their 3rd season chasing including Seddon. Seven of the last eight were either novices or second season chasers. All eight had ran in a Graded novice hurdle or novice chase

All this century had won at Class 3 level or higher. But only Coole Cody, The Shunter, Siruh Du Lac and Empire of Dirt of the last 14 had previously won a Graded Race ( the former three G3 course handicaps, the latter the £60k Leopardstown Chase over 2m 5f). The Storyteller had won a 9k euro Novice Hurdle, but only a beginners chase. Simply The Betts that Cl2 Timeform Nov course H'cap Chase in January.

TRAINERS

M/D.Pipe. Seven winners. Pretty good. M Pipe won four in five years between '97 and '02 with four different horses and four different jockeys. D. Pipe won three in the five years between 2010 and 2014. No runner in three of the last four years. Placed runners include Eamon An Cnoic 10/1 4th 2019, (12th at 40s 2021), Kings Socks 7/1 in 5th 2018, Starchitect 5th 6/1 in 2017, Kings Palace 3rd at 11s 2016 and Monetaire 11/2 fav second in 2015 after a tardy start. Great Endeavour winner 2010. 2011 Consigliere 4th, Matuhi 6th. 2013 four runners all unpl including Ballynagour 7/2 fav. That year Matuhi suffered a fatal fall at the last when in 3rd. Ballynagour won in 2014. Out of a total of 20 runners in David's 12 years. His three winners were returned 8/1, 9/2f and 12/1. According to the Racing Post race reports they all shortened in price on course in the run-up to the race. Imagine that. As did Starchitect. During the ten years, his only other three horses running at single-figure prices were Starchitect, Ballynagour 7/2 fav unpl and Notus de la Tour 8/1 fell at the third fence in Salut Flo's year. Always worth considering. They like to have a go at this race.

OWNERS - Celebre D'Allen 5th 2022 10th last year, (P Hobbs) owned by Allan Stennett has twice won courtesy of Salut Flo and Ballynagour.

N Henderson - Four winners, but none since 2006. Nos 1 and 2 on the race card 2021, Top Notch 3rd at 50s, Caribean Boy 7th. No runner three of the last four years. In 2019 Janika, well punted 3/1 fav in 2nd. River Wylde 10s PU 2018, Pougne Bobbi 16s and unplaced, 2017 Cocktails At Dawn PU, 2016 Full Shift 4th, nothing placed in the previous six years.

P Nicholls has never won this (and is well aware of the fact if you read his Betfair column). Il Ridoto 6th at 7/1 last year. No runner previous four years, 2018 no luck with 2 runners including 8/1 Movewiththetimes PU, 2017 Bouvreil 3rd, Art Mauresque 8th. 2016 three tried including Stilletto 11/2 jt fav fell. Caid Du Berlais 11/1 unpl 2015. Poquelin PU 2013. Crack Away Jack PU in 2012 went off at 13/2. Gwanako 2nd 2008 and 5th 2010. His Festival handicap runners usually overbet imho.

Venetia Williams - Three winners and two seconds in the last 16. Usually not the obvious one. Frero Banbou 12th last year. Didero Vallis 16s best of two in 5th in 2019. A beaten faller and two PUs covering the previous two years. Tango De Juilley 2nd at 33s 2016. Idole First winner at 12s, Carrickboy at 50s, Something Wells was 33s. Overall record is three winners and six placed from a total of 24 runners. Pretty good.

IRISH TRAINED - Seddon, The Shunter, The Storyteller, Road To Respect and Empire Of Dirt the first Irish Trained winners of this since Doubleuagain in 1982. That's five of the last eight. The latter two were both Gigginstown owned. J McConnell/E Mullins/G Elliott/N Meade/Colm Murphy. Nine came last year, the biggest invasion yet, Gevrey 4th at 125/1 next best. In 2022 three travelled, best finisher was 10th, Grand Paradis PU at 11/2. Five ran in 2021 resulting in a 1-2-5. Six came in 2020, best Gordon's Ben Dundee 10/1 in 5th. Two 33/1 unplaced in 2019. The Last Goodbye also ran in 2018, 10th. Only Diamond King also in 2017, PU. Three in 2016, best of the rest Ballycasey in 5th. In the previous 23, 2015 Rawnaq 3rd at 25s from four runners, 2012 Glam Gerry 3rd from two runners at 33s, 2011 Beautiful Sound 3rd, only entry and fav, '10 Notable D'Estruval 3rd. Cregg House ‘03 and Its Time For A Win '02 were placed. Success still punching well above numbers.
 

JOCKEYS - 10 of the last 33 winners ridden by conditional jockeys including 2009, '10, '11. 2019 Lizzie Kelly (3) 2019, 2021 Jordan Gainford (7) and last year Ben Harvey (5). Last year Michael O'Sullivan (3) got Haut en Couleurs in to 5th. Neither of the two jocked up in 2022 finished the race. The only other conditional riding in 2021 was Luca Morgan (7) on Top Notch 3rd. In 2020 Richard Patrick (3) gave Happy Diva a fine ride in second. Three others unplaced. Jamie Bargary (3) on Splash Of Ginge an enterprising second 2018. (Trainer N Twiston-Davies interviewed on Racing TV just before the off said 'no chance'). Jack Kennedy (3) only conditional placed between 2014 - 2017

RUNS THAT SEASON - 33 of last 38 winners all between 3 and 8 previous runs that season. Including the last nine. Not Ballynagour, one run, Salut Flo, one run. Both Pipe plots.

Seven of the last eight in the first three in either of last two runs. Seddon had won his last two. Not Coole Cody. 27 of last 40 first or second in either of last two runs (not in '07, '08, '10, '12 '14, '15 or The Storyteller nor Coole Cody). Not really a helpful fact, Bryan, in the search for a form selection.   

The last nine had all won that season. Only 29 of the last 38 had won in the same season. All bar 3 of the past 19 ran since 31st December. All bar Seddon (29th December) of the last nine.

23 of the last 32 had not finished worse than 4th last time. (’02 Blowing Wind 5^th, ’03 Young Spartacus not been out that season, Mister McG 5th, Salut Flo 12th in G3 course Handicap chase, Carrickboy and Ballynagour both PU, Darna 7th in 2m4f h'cap on Cheltenham Trials Day. The Storyteller 7th to Monalee in the Flogas, Coole Cody 7th on Trials Day handicap). The English handicapper put Seddon 19lbs for winning a Leopardstown Xmas 10k h'cap chase. Siruh Du Lac came off the back of three successive wins up 18lbs since the start of the season. Simply The Betts put up 24lbs from winning a Chepstow Nov h'cap in early November. Empire Of Dirt up 10lbs. Tom Segal, when tipping Road To Respect wrote, 'the handicapper has no idea what the correct mark is for this horse.'

Coole Cody and Siruh Du Lac first winners since 1983 to have won one of the December or January 2m 4f Graded handicaps that season. Last season Il Ridoto (6th) had won the Trials day h'cap from Fugitif (2nd). 2020 Oldgrangewood winner in January a good fourth here, Darna, Salut Flo, Idole First, Liberthine and Sacre D’or only other winners since ’83 to have run in any of the Graded December or January 2m 4f Handicaps at Cheltenham that season. Simply The Betts strolled the Jan Nov h'cap. Ballynagour only winner to have run in the Paddy Power/Betvictor since Half Free '84. Happy Diva 2nd 2020 did justice to her November win. Johns Spirit got 9lbs for winning the Paddy Power Happy Diva 6lbs, Midnight Shadow 7lbs. Ga Law, Shakem Up'Arry.

11 of the last 12 hadn't been seen for at least 39 days. Not Road To Respect 25.

BREEDING - FRE breds have won 8 of the last 22 and finished placed in 11. Fugitif, Gevrey last year, Seddon IRE. 2022 Stolen Silver best in 4th behind three IRE breds. A 2-3 in 2021. In 2020, six ran, not one finished in the first twelve. In 2019 it was a French 1-2-5 from 11 qualifiers, in 2018 Kings Socks best in 5th from five qualifiers. Baron Alco 2nd and Bouvreuil in 4th in 2017 from 8, 2016 Tango De Julliet 2nd and Full Shift 4th from 6 runners, Monetaire 2015, none placed 2014, 10 ran in 2013, finished 2nd and 3rd. 2012 1st and 4th, 1-2-3 in '09 from 12 qualifiers).

Four of the five winners aged less than seven were FRE breds. (exception Great Endeavour). Three qualifiers last year, best Il Ridoto 6th. And Janika 2nd in 2019, a FRE Bred 6 yr old. In 2022 Stolen Silver at seven years 4th , was the youngest horse home in the first eight.

BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES ETC - Last year, eight triers, best Gevrey 4th. 2022 Spiritofthegames 3rd in usual cheekpieces, two unplaced no hopers in first time headgear. 2021 The Shunter in his usual hood and tongue tie. Top Notch in 3rd in first time cheekpieces, the only first timer in the field. First headgear winner in 2019 from 76 triers. 2020 three tried last year, best Mister Whitaker 3rd. Eight ran in 2019, best finishers were 3rd and 4th, Five in 2018, best Ballyalton in 4th. Nine in 2017, Bouvreuil 4th, ten in total previous two years, all unplaced.
 

BF - Coole Cody at 22s became the first BF last time this century to win. Tramp. 48 other beaten favourites last time have tried. Fugitif 2nd last year. Two unplaced in 2021, Happy Diva 2nd in 2020. In 2019 five PPDs came (Punters Previous Disappointments). Finished 2nd and 3rd. Two in 2018, Movewithetimes 8/1 PU (one of the big overbet careers, that horse).

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