2023 - The well touted Angels Dawn had unseated two out when going rightly in the Punchestown Irish National Trial so had plenty of stamina. A first Festival winner for Sam Curling and PA King who gave the eight year a fine ride, getting up in a driving finish from Stumptown, another beaten Irish novice fav in this race. Mr Incredible, also well punted, flattered in 3rd. WPM yet to win a Festival handicap chase. JJ Codd on Dunboyne in 4th mad it a clean sweep in the places for non claiming jockeys. Angels Dawn was a novice, had a lower winner's BHA rating than most. 131. Only his 6th chase.

2022 - Lovely ride by Miss Lucy Turner (3) on the in form novice Chambard 40/1, giving Venetia Williams her second winner of the week after L'Homme Presse. Her Didero Vallis finished third at 66s. Venetia then ran three on GC day, each at big prices paying a dividend with Skybet extra places. Momentum. Chambard had won his last two. Mister Coffey gets placed (again). Another JP Irish plot School Boy Hours 5/1 jt fav, nowhere.

2021 - Jack Kennedy gets lost on Mount Ida, she wouldn't jump a fence for a circuit, stone last, touched 999/1. Then, in Jack's words, 'Two out, I got there too soon.' Hacks home from that season's Ladbroke Chase winner Cloudy Glen with the ever dependable Shantou Flyer back in third. Wherever G Elliott was at that moment, he must have been pleased. Definitely wasn't on course. No amateur jockeys due to COVID Restrictions so I'm sure Jamie Codd wasn't. The third leg of ITV's Kevin Blake well touted Morning Show Thursday treble after Mrs Milner and The Shunter. Any wonder she started at 3/1 fav.

2020 - '7lb claimers never win this race.' Well, Rob James has over 200 Irish p2p winners many of whom I have watched. He has ridden a lot of expensive thoroughbreds in 4 yr old maidens. Gigginstown's Milan Native in its first handicap, backed from 14s to 9s on course. Obviously tossed in. Simon Holt course commentary coming round the corner 'he's running away.' Gordon Elliott 'always the plan.' He was 6-3 ahead of Willie for top trainer at that moment. Must have thought home and hosed with seven races to go. The well-touted Kilfilum Cross and Plan of Attack 2nd and 4th.

2019 - Derek O'Connor had never won this race. Watching him throughout this on Any Second Now, you would wonder why. You can see why Derek and Jamie Codd and seen as worth at least 'half a stone.' JP owned and Ted Walsh trained, Any Second Now was a seven yr old, rating 143, carrying 11st 11lb. 6/1 second fav. Rated 1lb lower than the start of the season, had been fav and underperformed in the 2018 Close Brothers chase. Usually wore blinkers. In the 2019 season had run 5th in the PaddyPower chase at Leopardstown and third behind Chris's Dream in the Ten Up at Navan. The Young Master, a 10 yr old finished 3rd here.

2018 - Missed Approach with Noel McParlan on board, 8s from 11s outstayed Mall Dini 4/1 fav. Both eight year olds. Still meeting people who can't understand how Pat Kelly can train a horse that can lose Festival races. Double Ross 4th at 40s as a 12 yr old.

2017 After a fantastic duel between Pendra and Doomsday Book, Derek O'Connor's gallant partner just ran out of puff on the run-in, giving a first Festival success for trainer Stuart Edmunds and Miss Gina Andrews. Doc felt he would have won had they not had to miss out the third last. The cavalry were closing in fast behind. Apart from Pendra (9yrs) the rest of the first six home were seven yr olds.

2016 Cause Of Causes an 8 yr old was a long way back, then sped by them all. As soon as I uttered the words 'Well, Jamie is going to have difficulty winning from there,' I knew I was in trouble.

AGE - 2015 The Package aged 12 yrs in first time blinkers. Not out for 96 days. Festival record P2431, all in handicaps. 'Clear last, pushed out, comfortably' Great Festival favourite and a helluva training performance by D Pipe. Usual fine ride by Jamie Codd. The oldest horse before that machine to win this was Omerta in 1991 as an eleven year old. Omerta was trained by MC Pipe and ridden by a 7 lb claimer called Adrian Maguire. Loads of eleven year olds and older have tried since Omerta, only seven have been placed.

Apart from Shantou Flyer at 11/2 11yrs old in 2021 and Double Ross 4th at 40s in 2018, 19 in total older than 10 yrs unplaced over the past nine years, including Measureofmydreams the 11yr old 3/1 fav in 2019. Madness. Three out with the washing over the past two years, Shantou Flyer the only representative in 2021. 2020 The Young Master UR 4 out when still in touch. Going back, six tried in 2014, Roberto Goldback 3rd at 16s. Twenty unplaced qualifiers between Roberto and the 13 yr old Lord Of The River trained by N Henderson 2^nd in 2005 @ 50s.

Chambard, a 10 yr old novice the first since The Package 2015 as the only horses over nine years of age to win this since Maximise at 10yrs in 2004 trained by, yes you've guessed it. M Pipe. The Package was probably the last of the David Johnson vintage.

This century all winners bar the three above were in the 7 to 9 years age group. Only six of those 23 winners have been seven yrs of age but all six of those have come since 2012 - Mount Ida, Milan Native, Any Second Now, Domesday Book, Spring Heeled, Same Difference, then Cloudy Lane '07. Last one before that was Ferdy Murphy's Stop the Waller in '96. Oh, how I remember, 'don't stop, Stop...keep going, Stop.' What an ejjit. Stumptown was the only six yr old in the field last year. No six yr olds ran in 2022. Almazhar Garde 7th in 2021, five other six yrs old ran down the field between 2021 and 2019 including Champagne Platinum in 2020, N Henderson's 5/1Jt Fav with Doc on board. 2014 and 2013 the two seconds were Cause Of Causes (6 yrs) and Super Duty (7). No 6 yr old winner of this since 1971. Only runner in 2017 was the wonderfully exasperating Squouateur the 5/1 fav under Jamie Codd UR 'when making steady progress'.

WEIGHT - Angels Dawn 11-0. Chambard carried 10 12 with Lucy's allowance All the rest since 2008 carried 11st or more to victory after taking into account the jockey's claim. Milan Native 11st 1 lb after Rob James's useful 7lb taken off. 2013 Same Difference carried 11st after taking off Ryan Hatch's 7lbs. High Chimes in 2008 last one under 11st with 10 10.

However this is usually one of the most compressed handicaps in the Festival after the much lamented Nov H'cap chase. 13 of the last 14 were very compressed handicaps. Last year year only two runners under 10-12. 2022 only four with less than 11st, In 2021 it was two. 2020 10lb covered the h'cap before jockeys' allowances, 2019 it was 11lbs. 2018 was a bit odd with two declared on the 10st mark and then a 7lb gap to the next runner on 10st 7lb. Before that the bottom weight hadn't been less than 10st 8lbs after jockeys allowances for some time. It does remain a skill in itself for trainers to get horses into some of these handicaps.

RATINGS - Have gone up throughout this century. Before 2009 no winner rated above 134. Sam Curling did well to get him Angels Dawn in off 131. No 22 on the racecard. He and Chambard on 134 the first in 12 to be below 137. This peaked with Any Second Now winning in 2019 off 143. This is a 0-145. The Honours Board above shows it. Didero Vallis 3rd of 127 2022. However first six home in 2021 all at least 140. In 2020 all placed horses rated at least 138, in 2019 it was 139. Between 2016 and 2018 all of the first four home rated at least 135.

Since this race moved to the New Course, five of the 15 winners ran in a course h'cap chase at the INTERNATIONAL Meeting, four in the Unicorn 3m 2f chase one won this season by Eva's Oskar. Looking at the ratings, you might expect that race to provide runners for this. However, unlikely in 2024 as first three home led by Broadway Boy are well in the 150s. 2022 Mister Fogpatches was 2nd in December then 6th here. None of the last eight winners ran in December nor did the other two novices, Same Difference and Ballabriggs. The five novice winners on the New Course had never raced here before. Four others did have Festival chase experience, Cause of Causes had won, Missed Approach been placed in a 4 miler, both Any Second Now and Domesday Book had been well beaten in Close Bros chases. This was Angel Dawn's and Milan Native's first visit to a GB course. To summarise, six from the past 15 hadn't been to the Festival before. Mount Ida had been 10th in the mares novice behind Concertista.

PRICE - Seven winning favourites since 1977. Mount Ida 2021 first since Sunnyhillboy 2012, then Junior 2011, Cloudy Lane '07 and The Bushkeeper '02. Prices above in the Honours Board. The 1-2-3-4 last year were from the first five in the betting. The 1-2 in 2020 were in the first five in the betting, in 2019 second and third fav (Kilfilum Cross 7/1) finished as the 1-2 and in 2018 the top three in the market all finished in the first three home. The favourite was due in 2021 but you rarely have the Kim Muir/Mildmay Plate fav double in the same year. Tears from the ring.

BEATEN FAVOURITES LAST TIME - Angel Dawn at 10s joins Missed Approach at 8/1 in 2018 to be the only BFS last time to win this century. 51 beaten favourites last time out have gone to post. Two others unplaced last year, four in 2022, Cloth Cap in 2021. Two in 2019 also unplaced. Notable losers include Measureofmydreams (amazing SP at 3/1 fav for this), Squoateur (who was usually backed into favouritism everywhere), Champagne James in 2015, backed from 8s to 4s in the 15 minutes before the off.

FORM - 20 from last 30 finished 1^st or 2^nd in either of last two starts, including all of the last four. Three others were Pipe trained, Character Building, Same Difference and High Chimes only achieved a 3rd place two runs previous. Spring Heeled's last run finished 10th in Leopardstown Paddy Power Chase, Cause Of Causes warmed up in a 2 mile jog in a Navan 2 miler. Domesday Book 3rd at Leicester, Any Second Now, 3rd to Chris's Dream in the Ten Up.

Only four of the last 14 had won a chase (other than a beginners or ungraded novice) that season. Angels Dawn had won a Down Royal h'cap chase. Chambard three novice h'cap chases, Mount Ida won a Clonmel Listed Nov over 2m 4f, Milan Native was a maiden.

Only Chambard and Ballabriggs of the last 21 won last time out. Stumptown 2nd, best of seven qualifiers last year.

15 from the last 19 finished in first 3 in either of last two starts. Six of the last seven finished at least third last time out. And Angels Dawn probably would have, bar unseating.

RACING POST RATINGS - Apart from Any Second Now, Missed Approach, Cause of Causes and Sunnyhillboy, 12 from the last 16 had all achieved their best RPR within the last two runs. Three of the four exceptions were JP-owned and all four were seriously punted on the day. Angels Dawn, Chambard and Mount Ida's were last time out. Milan Native's best RPR two runs previous in Alloha's beginners chase win.

HANDICAP LAST TIME? - Angels Dawn and Chambard competed in a handicap last time out. The previous three didn't. Junior and Sunnyhillboy were in handicap hurdles. Missed Approach 2nd in the 4m 1f Edinburgh National at Musselburgh.

20 from last 25 ran over at least 3 miles last time. Not Mount Ida, Milan Native, Domesday, nor Cause Of Causes.

Chambard the only FRE Bred in 17. Angels Dawn the first faller or unseat that season in 17 winners.

Milan Native the first winner this century from the 30 handicap debutants. Followed by Mount Ida, another handicap debutante. Beauport only qualifier last year, 9th. Aint That A Shame and Frontal Assault in 2022, nowhere.

Only 14 from last 27 had actually won a handicap chase, including nine of the last 15. Agels Dawn and Chambard but not the four before.

13 from last 20 has won over 3 miles. Exceptions Mount Ida, Milan Native, had never run over 3 miles, Any Second Now, 5th in the Paddypower, Doomsday Book, previously 6th in a Troytown, Spring Heeled 2nd in a 3m Munster National, Character Building placed in a Hennessey, Sunnyhillboy placed in an Irish National. The latter pair were both previous Festival placed.

18 from last 25 had run between 9 and 20 times over fences. The other seven had run less than 7 times over fences. They were three winning favourites, a winning 8/1 2^ndfavourite, Milan Native at 9/1 Angel Dawn at 10s, and Same Difference who a novice. Chambard 10 runs, Any Second Now nine, Missed Approach 11 previous chase runs, Domesday Book nine chases.

15 from the last 18 no more than 11 runs over fences, but not Cause of Causes nor The Package. This was only Mount Ida's fourth chase. Last 20 winners at least two runs this season.

Glyde Court '85 and '86, the last horse to win two of these. Trained by Fred Winter.

12 of the last 24 had never raced at Cheltenham before. Nine others had placed course form. Cause Of Causes had been placed in this before and won the 4 miler as a second season novice. The Package loved the place. Junior 2nd the season before in G3 course chase. Character Building had been 2nd in the 4 miler in '07. Sunnyhillboy placed in this in 2010 and was a course winner. The three exceptions to all are Any Second Now, Domesday Book both unpl in Festival Nov H'cap and Spring Heeled who could only manage 8th behind Alvarado in the 3m 3f Graded Cheltenham Chase in November.

12 from the last 16 competed in at least a G3 that season. Angels Dawn last time out, Mount Ida at Thurles. Two others had won Cl2 handicap chases. Domesday 6th in Troytown. Missed Approach had been 6th in a Newbury Ladbroke. Exceptions to all were Chambard who ran in Cl3 and Cl4 all season and Milan Native a decent G2 novice hurdle form but had been hidden away for this in plain sight.

TRAINERS - Fred Rimell top with four successes.

D/M Pipe trained four of the last 21 winners with The Package, Junior, Royal Predica and Maximise. Faasel also second in both 2011 and 2010. Hasn't won any of the last eight. No runner in last six years (sad) but ran seven in total over the previous two years including in 2016 Dr Harper fav and disappointing, Amigo 5th at 33s and Top Wood 25s 'disputing close second when fell 4 out.'

The last four horses D Pipe trained to finish 1st or 2nd in this had not been seen for 96, 267, 75 and 97 days respectively. Amigo 5th 2016, hadn't been seen for 293 days. Spring Heeled not out for 76 days, Same Difference only 19 days, Domesday Book 28 days, Missed Approach 40 days. Pendra, runner up in 2017 hadn't been let loose by Charlie Longsdon for 341 days, Any Second Now's run at Navan was 25 days before this. Milan Native 26. Mount Ida 50. Chambard ran under a 5lb penalty having won 11 days earlier at Huntingdon. Angels Dawn 25 days.

N Henderson - Emir Sacree PU last year. Mister Coffey 2nd when joint fav 2022. Morning Vicar 8th 2021. Nothing else recent. '90 Master Bob, ’02 The Bushkeeper 11st 2lb and ’05 Juveigneur 11st 7lbs both big weight carrying winners. 2020 Champagne Platinum (a JP punt) 5/1jt fav 7th. No runner 2019, 2018 Sugar Baron 14th. In 2017, saddled four, Premier Bond 3rd, Sugar Baron 6th. 2016 Ericht hit a few fences, unpl. Roberta Goldback 3rd 2014.

IRISH TRAINED - Like them all, an improving record - Nine turned up last year, finished 1-2-3-4-5-6-7. NIne turned up in 2022, best Fakir D'Alene 4th. There were a couple of disappointments priced 5/1jt fav and 6/1. A 1-6 from two in 2021, 2020 Milan Native led home a 1-4-6 from five runners. Any Second Now, Cause of Causes and Spring Heeled shattered the stat of Greasepaint in 1983 being the last Irish trained winner. Eight others ran in 2019, none finished better than 8th. Ireland has provided 10 favourites and School Boy Hours 5/1 jt fav in the past 20. All bar Mount Ida were beaten. Stumptown 7/2 2nd, Measureofmydreams, 2018 Mall Dini, also Squoateur 5/1 third. Before 2016 J.P. McManus had been a particular sufferer with his Irish trained. In 2017 Pendra nearly made up for Squouteur's unseat.

Mount Ida and Milan Native didn't but the previous three Irish trained all ran in the Paddy Power Chase finishing 5th, 14th and 13th respectively.

Back to Irish trained. Six winners in the last ten. And with due respect to the skills of Stuart Edmunds, Domesday Book had only moved to his yard from Henry de Bromhead's on the 4th February.

Going back into history - In 2015, six Irish Trained ran finishing 2nd, 3rd and 5th. 2014 Irish Trained finished 1st, 2nd, 4th (Ballnaslow a rare place for W Mullins). 2013 four ran, best was Romanesco in 3rd (and some said that Nina on board gave those in front of her a touch too much rope) also Becauseicouldntsee in 5th. 2012 five tried, finished 2nd, 4th and 5th. '11 Deal Done 3rd at 20s from 3 runners. '10 three tried, all unplaced. In' 09 best of Irish trio was Newbay Prop in 3rd, '08 three tried all unplaced, '07 3^rd and 4^th achieved from 4 runners. Continue to punch weight well above their numbers. Mind you, nearly half the field last year.

G ELLIOTT THE MAN - In the last ten renewals, he has run 18. Two winners, six placed, and Squoateur threatening, when fell. Did cause the ill fated antepost plunge on Measureofmydreams on the Preview Circuit but also gave Milan Native when he was at 33s. (AND Mount Ida). Cullentra runners in the last 6 renewals finished 4000118003U10045.

Mr Incedible was WPM's first ever finisher in the first three. Personally think he is trying to win one of these handicap chases. No runner 2022. Cabaret Queen last to finish 2021 and I backed it, Livelovelaugh 16s 12th in 2019. Doesn't run that many in handicap chases.

OTHER TRAINERS - Apart from Elliott, Henderson and Pipe, Messrs McCain, Alner and Ferdy Murphy have all saddled at least 2 winners of this. RIP Robert and Ferdy. McCain fav 2014 with Indian Castle (7th), 2nd 2013 with Super Duty, Khachaturian 5th to Ballabriggs.

P Nicholls has not done particularly well here. Shantou Flyer 3rd 2021 his best finish from 23 runners. Two well down the field 2019/2020 Touch Kick 11/1, Coup De Pinceau 40s. Captain Bucks, Unioniste, Mon Parrain Just a Par all unpl in last seven years. Two runs after this in 2015 Just A Par won the Whitbread/Bet365. (Referred again to lack of success in his column, feels his handicap chasers tend to come to the Festival 'a bit exposed'. Doesn't tend to have many three mile chasers rated under 145).

Trevor Hemmings RIP owned 3 of the last 17 (and Cloudy Glen) but none of the last 13. Deise Aba 5th 2020, one of the few Hobbs horses to show in a good light that Festival. Touch Kick and Very First Time unpl previous two years. No runner last year.

CARNAGE - No fallers last year but 11 runners were pulled up. Only one faller 2022. 11 non finishers in 2021 but seven were PU. 2020 15 finished the race, but only three UR or F. Five F or U over the previous two years, 4 in 2017 and 2016, 7 in 2015 fell, unseated or brought down. Can be the worst race at Festival for this.

BLINKERS ETC - Before 2011 horses wearing any type of headgear were 0 from 64 over the previous 12 years. Changed now. In 2011 the first seven home were blinkered, those finishing 3rd and 5th were for the first time. In 2012, nine tried, best Exmoor Ranger in 3rd. In 2013 Same Difference won in a first time visor, Alfie Sherrin 4th in cheekpieces. In 2014 10 of the 23 runners wore some sort of headgear including Spring Heeled (always wears it) and Same Difference in 5th. In 2015 The Package wins in first time cheekpieces. Ten others wore headgear including 2nd and 4th home. Only other first time headgear was Sixty Something at 33/1 who was tanking along at the top of the hill before trying to demolish 4 out. The man beside me had backed it. Not happy.

In 2016 Cause Of Causes wore his usual cheekpieces as did Knock House in 4th. 10 others raced, but no first timers. In 2017 Pendra 2nd was in first time blinkers, Premier Bond, 3rd, had worn them before. 2018 Missed Approach had been wearing headgear all that season, Mall Dini was in first time blinkers. Eight qualifiers. 2019 1st, 3rd and 5th in headgear they usually wore. 11 tried in 2020 including 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Bob Mahler in 3rd, finished well in first time blinkers. 2021 11 headgear wearers, four finished including 3rd and 4th. 2022 we had three in first time stuff including Didero Vallis 66/1 3rd and Mint Condition 33/1 5th. Last year nine showed up, best Dunboyne in 4th in blinkers he always wore. That's eight from the last 13 winners wearing headgear and plenty of placers. None of the last four winners.

WIND OP - A new stats feature since the RP now give you this info, three of the field in 2018 were having their first/second race after having a wind op of some description. Finished 1st, 3rd and 6th. None in the field 2019, two in 2020, both unplaced. 2021 Hold The Note, only one, 4th. None in the last two years.

CLAIMING JOCKEYS - Not relevant 2021 since the amateurs weren't allowed in due to COVID.

A recent stats killer. Last year back to normal PA King form Barry O'Neil, Patrick and JJ Codd. No claimers until B Lawless (7) in 5th. Lucy Turner (3) joins Rob James (7) to win it. That was a turnround for claiming jockeys. Mr H Swan (3) in 4th. In 2021 no one else closer than 10th. Apart from Ryan Hatch's 7lbs on Some Difference in 2013, non claiming amateur jockeys have now won 13 of the last 17. James Tudor (3) the other claiming winner on High Chimes in 2008. Non claimers rode the first five home in each of 2019. '18 and '17. Apart from Mr M Legg (3) second on A Good Skin in 2016, the other five from the first six home were non-claimers. M Legg was also fourth as a non-claimer in 2017. Non-claimers the first three home in 2015, first four home in 2014, the first six home in 2012, a 1-2-3-4 in 2011 and 4 out of the first 5 home in both 2010 and 2009. In Ryan's year, the next 4 home were all non claimers. Jockey's current role of honour reads PA King, Lucy Turner, R James, D O'Connor, N McParlan, G Andrews, JJ Codd ('16 and '15), Robbie MacNamara, Ryan Hatch, A J Berry, JJ Codd, RO Harding, Codd. Mr D O'Connor has one win and three second places. Derek is usually well punted.

Apart from Lucy, Rob, Ryan and Michael, the other 38 from 42 1-2-3 jockeys non claimers since race moved to New Course in 2009. Since 2009 Mr JJ Codd has won four of these.