My Pension Expert Arkle Chase

The 8 yr old Stat - Edwardstone 2022, Sizing Europe 2010 and Moscow Flyer 2002 only winners for those aged 8 yrs since Commandante ’90. All three rated in the high 150s when running in this and had already won a Grade 1 2m novice chase. By coincidence, all those wins were in December.

Three came last year, best Saint Roi 3rd. Edwardstone the only eight year old runner in his year. None tried in 2021. 2020 four in the 11 strong field, Global Citizen 33s best in 4th, the other three didn't finish. Articulum 25/1 placed as a nine year old in 2019. Then we have to go back to 2011 Finians Rainbow 2nd, '10 Osana 3rd, Kalahari King 2nd in '09. There has been no 9 year old winner since Danish Flight '88.  One of the best known Cheltenham stats. Will pass someday, but when?  Sharjah, My Mate Mozzie

Last year the 1-2-3 was aged 6-7-8 yrs, 2022 it was 8-7-7, 2021 7-7-6, 2020 6-5-6, In 2019 6-6-9. 2018 Footpad was a 6 yr old.

To summarise, the last 13 winners - 6 yr olds lead 7 yr olds, Seven - Five. And Edwardstone.

5 yr olds - Do well with smaller numbers but allowance stopped after '08. No 5 yr old winner since Voy Por Ustedes '08. No 5 yr olds ran in 7 of the last 11 years. None last year. Best finisher of three in 2022 Riviere d'Etel in 5th. 2021 Allmankind 5/1 beat one home. Fakir D'Oudaries a fine second 2020. Saint Calvados went off too quick in 2018. None ran in the previous two years, 0-16 since 2007. Zenta, Blood Destiny.

PRICE - Favorites - El Fabiolo backed down to 11/10 continues the favs drum roll. Edwardstone 5/2 fav. I must stop laying these Arkle favs. Shishkin at 4/9 for Odds On followers. Notebook and Hardline couldn't continue the Arkle Odds On winning run after Footpad 5/6, Altior 1/4, Douvan 1/4 following Un De Sceaux 4/6. Before that Simonsig 2013 and Sprinter Sacre 2012. Currently by far the best current Festival race for favourites. Marine Nationale

Before 2012 we have to go back to Azertyuiop ’03, Klairon Davis ’95, Remittance Man ’91. Those all short priced and turned over - Notebook (5/2), Champagne Fever (11/4), Medermit (11/4), Captain Cee Bee (5/2), Noland, War of Attrition, Sybillin, Mulligan, Decoupage and Seebald. With small fields and the Turners/JLT you might expect more favourites to win. No more than 11 runners each year in this since Turners/JLT introduction. 9 last year, 11 in 2022, 5 in 2021. Sybillin 4/5 in 1993 was the previous odds on before Sprinter Sacre 2012 and the last one to get beat. (Just love this stuff sometimes). Seven odds on shots in the past 12 and they all won.

Put The Kettle On 16/1 joins Western Warhorse 33s 2014 first winners to be priced over 11/1 since Waterloo Boy 20s in '89. Gabynako 25s, Eldorado Allen 33s, Articulum 25s, Ordinary World 25s joined Gods Own and Baily Green (both 2nd at 33s) first since Ashley Brook '05 to be placed at 20/1 plus. 13 horses 20/1 and over have been placed in past 287 races. None last year. Seems about right odds wise.

Put The Kettle On is the only winner in 28 not to be favourite or second favourite on their previous run. Was the 6/1 outsider of four when winning the Cheltenham Arkle Trial in November.

Since the turn of the century 27 last time out beaten favourites have run. One winner Tidal Bay 6/1. Had been beaten 1/2 length on previous run at Doncaster at 1/4 but had won 3 novice chases that season. In the last four renewals, only two qualifiers, both in 2022. Best finisher Riviere D'Etel in 5th. 2019's qualifiers Kalasnikov BD, Lalor PU.

TRAINERS 

Irish trained - 11 of the last 28 including six of the last nine with El Fab, The Kettle, Duc de Genievres, Footpad, Douvan, Un De Sceaux. Henry alone breaking W Mullins' run. Sizing Europe '10, Forpadytheplasterer '09, Moscow Flyer ’03 and 14 others placed out of 86 runners over the past 22 years. But, as with all the Grade Ones, the Irish have taken over. Six from nine runners last year resulting in a 1-3, Seven from 11 in 2022 were from the Emerald Isle resulting in a 2-3 behind Edwardstone. Captain Guinness no better than 3rd of five runners 2021, a 1-2 in 2020 from 4 runners, 2019 an Irish 1-2-3 from 5 runners. (Sizing John, Champagne Fever both 2nd, Ordinary World 3rd, Trifolium 3rd 2014. Last 13 winners of Irish Arkle to turn up finished 3112111161631 in this. Energumeme a late and disappointing NR 2020. Notebook and Some Plan each finishing 6th spoils that a bit. Irish winners of this had finished placed 31121111 in the December Leopardstown 2 mile novice. Found A Fifty bt My Mate Mozzie Min won it in 2017, Douvan won 2016. Winners of this who had run in the Irish Arkle finished 111U1FF2111 in Ireland.  El Fabiolo last year Il Etait Temps, Found A Fifty, Quilixios.

The last horse to win the Arkle after falling last time out was Moscow Flyer in 2002.

N. Henderson - Seven wins, four seconds, and three thirds from 24 runners in past 30 renewals. Jonbon 2nd last year No 2022, 2020 nor 2019, Brain Power 14s second in 2018. 2016 Vaniteux may have finished second before UR two out. Before Shishkin, Altior, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre his last winner was Tuitchev in 2000. He has run nine horses in this who had a hurdle rating in excess of 145. Five won, four finished second and Vaniteux. Doesn't seem to have a runner for 2024.

Henry de Bromhead - Beginning to have some ammunition for this race. Won it with Sizing Europe in 2010, then a gap of four years with no entries. Has run 10 in the last eight, Captain Guinness 3rd 2021, Put The Kettle On wins 2020, Sizing John 2nd, Ordinary World 3rd. Quilixios

JP McManus has only had nine runners this century, Jonbon 2nd, Saint Roi 3rd, Fakir D'Oudaries (2nd) first since Tap Night 2013, and the first placed since Foreman in 2006.

M/D. Pipe - 5 wins, 2 seconds and a third from 15 runners in past 21. Nothing placed for 7 years and then along comes Western Warhorse in 2014. D Pipe immediately admitted that he had spent the previous two weeks trying to persuade the owner, Roger Brookhouse, not to run him. No runners last eight years and none on the horizon. Well Chief (star) and the Warhorse only had one chase run. All other winners of this back to '94 at least two chase runs.

Mullins/Henderson have won nine of the last 12 between them. Would have been ten without the Warhorse.

P. Nicholls - In last 21 renewals has had 20 runners. Two winners, four thirds. However since Azer '03 only three thirds from 15 runners. (No runners last seven years, Vibrato Valtat 4th in 2014 after trying to take the favourite on. Dodging Bullets unpl 2014. No runner 2013, Al Ferof unpl 2012). 12 of his last 13 finished unplaced. Tahmuras

A. King - has only ever had 7 runners in this. Jahash in ’04 was 4^th at 150/1, Kadount ’05 was travelling well when UR four out and then he won it twice with Voy Por Ustedes and My Way De Solzen. 2011 Medermit his first runner for 4 years and favourite, only 4th. Last runner before Edwardstone was Valdez 4th 2014. No goat's toe, is Mr King.

Northern based - Cloudy Dream 12s ran in 2017 to finish 2nd for Malcolm Jefferson. Kahahari King 2nd '09, Tidal Bay won '08 and Monets Garden’s 2^nd to Voy ’06 improves their performance from the previous decade. Overturn well beaten at 7/2 in 2013. No runners 2015, '16 or in any of the last six years.

FORM - The last 14 winners won last time out. Going back to Forpadydeplaster in '09. Only Contraband (3^rd) and Moscow Flyer (F) of the last 31 winners did not finish 1^st or 2^nd in their previous race. Of those 31 only Moscow, Ventana Canyon and Un De Sceaux had actually fallen that season. Moscow had fallen twice. Ventana Canyon started chasing career in the same 2m 2f Thurles Beginners as Un De Sceaux. Il Etait Temps Duc De Genievres is the only winner since Contraband '05 not to have finished in the first 2 on any completed chase start that season in GB or Ire. But then when did Willie Mullins ever worry about stats. Western Warhorse had won his only chase.

18 of the last 23 had won at least a G2 that season. Not the Duc, Western Warhorse, nor Well Chief.

BHA RATINGS - 11 of last 21 had rating of 156 plus and were the top-rated hurdler. El Fabiolo hurdle rating 2lb below Jonbon. Edwardstone's hurdle rating of 150 the same as Coeur Sublime. Global Citizen top rated hurdler 2020 off 156. Shishkin 164 Kettle chase rating 144. Altior was given a rating of 170 after winning the Game Spirit before this.

Those rated 160+ are 8 from 15 since 2012. El Fabiolo was 162, Jonbon 159.

Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir both had 3 lbs in hand over Footpad over hurdles according to the handicapper. 2013 Simonsig second top-rated hurdler, 2012 Sprinter Sacre lowest hurdle rating 145 of first 4 home.

20 of last 23 rated at least 142 over hurdles. Not Western Warhorse, Voy Por Estedes nor Put The Kettle On.

11 of last 17 winners had won a Pattern race over hurdles (not El Fabiolo, the Kettle, the Duc, Captain Chris, Sprinter Sacre nor Western Warhorse). Only five of the last 20 spent more than one season over hurdles. Il Etait Temps.

18 of the last 23 had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences. 6 of the past 11 had won at least to Grade 2 level over both hurdles and fences. Not El Fabiolo nor Edwardstone.

Racing Post Ratings - In the last 22 renewals, 18 horses came with a recent hurdle RPR of 160+. 10 won, four others placed. Shishkin and Footpad RPR 162 in previous season. None last year. Jonbon only 155 for beating El Fabiolo at Aintree. I'm not a big fan of RPRs, just somebody else's and another opinion?

26 from last 32 had won at least 50% of their completed chase starts. Duc De Genievres only one to break this stat run going back to Captain Chris 2011. He had only one win from 4 runs. 29 of last 36 had won at least twice over fences. (Again the Duc broke this, only one win, three other exceptions were trained by M/D Pipe, Forpadytheplasterer had been 2nd in three Grade 1 chases). Put The Kettle On, Un De Sceaux and Azertyuiop only winners since Anaglogs Daughter in 1980 to make most of the running. El Fabiolo jogged past them up the straight. Douvan led from the 3rd when Ruby got bored. Footpad 2018 picked up the pieces as Davy Russell and Aiden Coleman both blew their chances by setting a ridiculous pace.

Last 27 no more than 6 runs over fences. Only Western Warhorse of the last 23 wore blinkers. And that was first time. 29 of last 32 winners had at least 7 runs over hurdles/fences. El Fabiolo only 5 in total, Edwardstone had 15 such runs. Not Western Warhorse, also 5. El Fabiolo, with two, became the 6th winner since 1987 to have had less than 3 chase runs. Shishkin and Footpad had won 3 chases, Edwardstone, Altior and Put The Kettle On had won 4 chases each.

11 from last 17 had won over 2m 4f. Not El Fabiolo, never tried, nor Edwardstone, only 3rd the season before in an Aintree h'cap. Shiskin the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, Put The Kettle On three times over that trip, The Duc at Gowran, Footpad at Auteuil. Altior had beaten Black Corton 63 lengths in a match but over just 2m 2f. Not Forpady, only also had won over just 2m 2f. Nor Sprinter Sacre, only 2nd in an 2m 4f novice hurdle. Not Douvan, only 2m 1f.

Only 15 from last 23 had won a Chase by Tingle Creek Day (7th December). Not El Fab, the Duc, Captain Chris, Well Chief or any of the four before Douvan. Not particularly relevant, methinks, but its here..

It has never happened that the winners of all the Supreme, Ballymore and Albert Bartlett have come back the next year and won the Arkle, Turners and Brown Advisory Chases. Not this year, either, unless Impair et Passe changes disciplines.

SUPREME NOVICE/ARKLE DOUBLE - Becoming fashionable. Shishkin, Altior and Douvan first since Flyingbolt in 1965 to do a Supreme-Arkle double. And Flyingbolt was rated 210. Seven others have tried. Un De Sceaux didn't come via the hurdle route because they already had Vautour. Other recent triers Al Ferof 3/1 2012 and Champagne Fever 11/4 jt fav 2014 caught on the line by Western Warhorse. To credit Ruby, he went on RUK later that year explaining in detail why and when he should have kicked on a bit earlier that day. Simonsig had strolled a Neptune. Sprinter Sacre 3rd in Supreme Novice before winning here. He had finished behind Al Ferof in the hurdle, Somersby 3rd in Supreme Novices before 2nd here 2010, Kalahari King 4th in Supreme Novice '08 before 2nd here '09. Noland won Supreme '06, 3rd here '08. Last year Constitution Hill had other business to attend to.

To summarise - The last three Supreme winners to come, won. Fwiw Marine Nationale has the lowest hurdle rating of the four. But only by 2lbs.

Shishkin became the first to do the double with the Lightning Chase winner at Doncaster late January. Since 2010 only 4 have attempted it, the shortest price and probably best other performance here was Vaniteux 8/1, fell two out when still pitching. Tommys Oscar nr last year

COURSE FORM - Only El Fabiolo, Un De Sceaux and Voy Por of the last 19 winners had never run here before. Western Warhorse had been 2nd in a Cl3 hurdle off 125. The other 15 had 'good' course form. Definition as follows. Either a course winner or 'decent' run at a previous festival. Stat stretched to include Edwardstone, 5th in the 2020 County, the Duc, 5th beaten 9l behind Samcro in the Ballymore, Forpadytheplasterer had finished 4th in another 'Ballymore'. The other 13 had also either won at least a G3 here or been placed in G2 or G1. Shishkin and Altior both won Supremes. Footpad has been 3rd in a Triumph and 4th in a Champion Hurdle. Put The Kettle On won the November G2 Arkle Trial. Marine Nationale, Facile Vega, Quilixios.

14 of last 20 ran at last year's Festival. Not El Fabiolo. Edwardstone 5th in the County.

Boreen Prince 1985 last runner up in Champion Hurdle to win this the following year. Overturn failed in 2013. Melon went elsewhere. Not relevant this season.

Apart from The Kettle and Sizing Europe all winners since 1966 had had a run since Jan 1st.

STARTED ON THE FLAT - 0 from 30 since Contraband 2005. Only two to try in last six were Effernock Fizz 6th last year and Allmankind 5/1 4th of five 2021.

Kingmaker (Warwick, Feb 15th) prep race with best current record. Winner of that has finished 0123U1263412 in this. Jonbon won a match against Calico, Edwardstone won both. Allmankind 4th Rouge Vif 3rd 2020. No Scilly Isles winner has doubled up in last 21. Both the last two, Gerri Columbe and L'Homme Presse went up in trip. 2020 Sporting John couldn't jump. Itchy Feet and Defi De Seuil went to the Marsh Chase. Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton December won by Jonbon, Edwardstone, Shishkin, Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig. Master Chewy

TIMES - This race is usually run in a time under 4 minutes 3 secs. El Fabiolo 3.55 in soft. Edwardstone 3 51 in G to S. Shiskin did 3 53 in soft. Kettle - 4 mins 8 secs proving 2m 4f stamina important. 2019 Duc de Genievres 3 mins 59, 2018 Footpad 4 mins 2 in heavy going, Altior 3.55 Douvan 3.49, Un De Sceaux 3.51, 2014 3mins 47 2013 Simonsig did 4 mins 2 (in soft ground).

16 of last 25 winners had already won a chase in a time under 4 minutes 1 second or had posted a time under 4 minutes in at least a Grade 2 Hurdle. Not the Kettle nor the Duc. The latter had only won a chase over 2m 4f. (El Faiolo 3.59 in that Aintree novice hurdle. Edwardstone 3.59 Warwick, Shiskin 3.55 in a Wayward Lad, Footpad 3.45 Irish Champion Hurdle, Altior 3.46, Douvan 3.48 in respective Supremes). Altior 3.54 in a Wayward Lad jog. Exceptions include Western Warhorse, Or Royal and Tuitchev who all had yet to contest a 2-mile chase although the latter had been 6^th in the previous years Champion Hurdle. Also Tidal Bay who had posted a time of 4mins 6 over 2m ½ furlong when 2nd at Doncaster, Captain Chris, a course hurdle winner and G2 Pendil winner last time out and finally Simonsig, a Festival G1 winner.

2020 contenders best times.

Wayward Lad Kempton - Master Chewy 3.54. G to S.

2m Cheltenham November - Homme Public 4.05 G to S (JPR One fell)  

Irish Arkle - 2m 1f - Il Etait Temps - 4 20 Yielding to soft

Leopardstown Christmas 2 m 1f Found A Fifty 4.21 yielding

BREEDING - 13 of the last 29 winners were FRE Bred from about 25% of runners. That percentage is increasing 4 from nine last year including the 1-2-3. 6 from 11 in 2022 including the 2-3. Including all of Willie's last five winners. 16 weren't including Edwardstone and Shishkin. FRE Bred has been placed at least in 18 of last 23. 2021 Eldorado Allen. Four from a field of 11 2020, best 2nd and 3rd. 2019 Duc De Genievres was the only French Bred in the field. Footpad FRE. Douvan was bred in France but is by Walk In The Park, an Irish sire. (The sire of Min, as well). Altior was Irish bred by High Chapparal. Not Marine Nationale (IRE)

Only 13 German breds have run. Well Chief hacked home, two seconds and a third. Notebook and Lalor didn't help the cause.

Put The Kettle On retired the MARES stat. Kruguyrova '08 only placed mare of ten to run in the past 20 years. Previous mare to win obviously Anaglog’s Daughter ‘80. Three unplaced between 2023 and 2022. Still 7lb allowance.

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