Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup

THREE TIME WINNERS - Only Golden Miller (5 wins), Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate. When they were chasing their third GC were sent off at 6/5, 5/6, 1/10 and 8/11 respectively. Not even Kauto Star could do it. On his third attempt in 2010, he was 8/11 and a pushed along 5th when falling 4 out. Didn't stop him winning a 5th King George. None of the above had to regain their crown as third title. Not an issue this year.

Back to back GCs - Only seven horses ever have won back to back Gold Cups, Easter Hero, Golden Miller, Cottage Rake, Arkle, L'Escargot 1971, Best Mate 2003 and Al Boum Photo. The last five all went off at favourite on theie second GC but none of the last three were odds on. Galopin Des Champs.

In 2008 Kauto Star became the only horse to regain it. He was the 7/4 fav and impressively beat his old friend and rival Denman by 13 lengths. Minella Indo?

AGE - Long Run in 2011 as a 6yr old, Cool Dawn ’98 and Cool Ground ’93, both as 10 yr olds are only winners since Desert Orchid '89 to have not been aged 7, 8 or 9 years. No horse older than 10 has won this since What A Myth ’69. In the last 15 yrs, of those 10 yrs or older to have run, On His Own 2nd 2014 (and robbed imho, not pocket talking), Denman (twice), Kauto Star, Mon Mome 3rd in 2010. Hedgehunter ’06 and See More Business '02 all placed. Only INdo last year, PU with a circuit to go. Two in 2022, best Al Boum Photo 6/1 6th. Three in 2021, best Native River who got past Frodon for 4th place, some distance behind the Irish 1-2-3. Four ran over the previous three years, all unplaced. Those aged 10 yrs in 2024? Corach Rambler, Shishkin, Conflated, Jungle Boogie, Monkfish.

To summarise, this century 12 aged 10 or older have run with an SP of 6/1 or less. Respective finishing positions 6th, PU, 4th, 13th, 11th, F, 2nd, PU, 3rd, PU, F, F. They are 0-77 in total (Shishkin) Tom Segal, Weekender 22nd Feb 2023 '"Shishkin is aged nine and his best chance of winning a Gold Cup is surely going to be this March, not in 2024." The man who laughs in the face of stats.

1-2-3 in age last year went 7-8-9. In 2022 it was 8-9-7, 2021 8-7-9, from 2020 back to 2017 it has been 8-8-8, 7-9-8, 8-9-8, 7-7-7.

Unplaced 10 yr olds have included Thistlecrack at 12/1 in 2019, 2016 Cue Card 5/2 fell three out (not quite yet a faint memory. No, Paddy, no, please God, not there, not the third last, not my 50s for the Betfair Million. He was still talking about it in February this year in a big Racing Post Sunday interview). Cue Card again fell 2017, Kauto 3/1 pu behind Synchronised, Kauto 8/11 and fell in 2010, See More Business 9/4 fav in '00, Looks Like Trouble 9/2 fav '02, Commanche Court 8/1 '03, Grey Abbey 15/2 '05, Beef or Salmon 4/1 fav in '06. Both Cool Dawn and Cool Ground mentioned above were 25/1 outsiders on fastish ground, the latter with Adrian Maguire on board just getting the better of Adam Kondrat.

No six year olds entered for this year or the last three. In 2024 Nassalam the only seven year old entered
 

Mac Vidi in 1980 oldest ever placed horse at 15 yrs of age.

EXPERIENCE/HAD ENOUGH? - Apart from Don Cossack (18 chases), Kauto (20 his regaining one) no other winner in past 24 years had more than 13 chases before GC win (Galopin Des Champs 6 chases, A Plus Tard 13, Indo 7, Al Boum Photo 7 first time then 10 in 2020, Native River 12, Sizing John 9, Coneygree, a novice with 3, Lord Windermere 9, Bobs Worth only 5, Long Run had 9). Even Best Mate's third GC was only his 13th chase. Kicking King's second, his 12th. To praise Paul Nicholls, See More Business was placed at 40/1 as a 12 yr old (his 26th chase). The Giant Bolster placed again in 2014 on his 20th Chase. Going back from 2013, the previous 14 before that had between 6 and 12 runs over fences before winning. The Fellow ’94, 28^th run over fences but only eleven in GB. Conflated 20, Protektorat 16, Shishkin 15, Ahoy Senor 15, Hewick 13, Nassalam 13, Corach Rambler 12, Bravemansgame 12. As Tom Segal says, 'they have only got so many races of this quality in them.'

BETTING - 11 of the last 21 favourites have won including five of the last eleven (First run in this format in 1924, 33 favourites have won this from 95 runnings - pointless but wonderful information). Before Best Mate’s second win in 2003, 7 of the previous 11 favourites had been 5/2 and under and all of those were beaten. Even worse before Best Mate’s two successes as winning favourite, the last 11 favourites who started 7/4 and under were all beaten. Al Boum Photo was 9/4 fav 2021 when 3rd, 100/30 fav 2020 when winning,

Galopin Des Champs at 7/5 fav, the shortest price winner since Kauto Star at 5'4f in 2007. No odds on winner since Bets Mate 8/11 in 2004.

ANOTHER OUTSIDER DUE? - Happened in 2019. Al Boum Photo 6th fav at 12/1. Placed horses 22/1 and 18/1. Al Boum joined Lord Windermere at 20s and Sizing John (2017 4th fav at 7/1) as the only winners going back to See More Business (16s 1999) who weren't from first three in the market. Longest priced of all those others winners - Synchronised 8/1 co third favourite from 14s. He was possibly only third favourite because of strong Pricewise support that morning. In the 2018 race it was Native River from Might Bite, two of the market front three, the whole way after Our Duke at 9/2 was pulled up. In 2016 the first four in the market were the only ones ever involved, if Don Poli only distantly. I work as an on-course clerk. no stats to prove it, but these things do tend to go round.

Top weight winning handicap off 160+ next run in a Grade 1. 16 have tried since 2000. Only Denman, Kauto Star, Bobs Worth, Florida Pearl won. Shouldn't be a factor here in 2024. Nassalam the only h'cap winner last time out who can appear and he won a Welsh National off 146. Didn't he just.

BIG PRICED PLACERS - Having said all that, Conflated 20/1 third last year, Annibale Fly 33s and 22s, Bristol De Mai 18s ensures that there is every chance that a 'fat' one will get placed. None in the three years previous to Conflated . Minella Rocco 18s in 2017. Before the 2014's placepot busting 1-2-3 of Lord Windermere/On His Own/The Giant Bolster, the previous 21 Gold Cups have had those starting 16/1 or bigger producing 23 top three finishes in total. That makes it now three wins, 10 runners up and 11 thirds in last 23 runnings. The Giant Bolster 50/1 runner up 2012, Mon Mome 50/1 third 2010.

STAYERS - Lots of extremely talented but non-staying horses have been found out over 3 miles 2 furlongs. Examples might include Bravemansgame, Lostintranslation, Djakadam, Wayward Lad, Celtic Shot, Bradbury Star, Merry Gale, Dublin Flyer, One Man, Strong Promise and Florida Pearl. (I will fight anyone who says Cue Card). However only 17 of last 32 winners had previously won over a distance in excess of 3m. Galopin Des Champs came form the Irish Gold Cup, A Plus Tard won the Betfair at Haydock (Not Minella Indo won an Albert Bartlett, the extra half furlong in Champ's RSA might have made a difference. Al Boum Photo first time had only won over that 2m 5f at Tramore, Native River a Welsh National, Sizing John an Irish Gold Cup, Don Cossack over 3m 1f at Punchestown, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth both won RSAs, Coneygree only had won over 3m). Before Kauto regained GC in '09, Denman '08 was first of 5 to have previously run in a race in excess of 3 miles. 

RYANAIR CHASE - Ran in the previous year by both Don Cossack and Imperial Commander. Conflated had been in contention for the places behind Allaho, then third here, Eldorado Allen did finish 3rd when Conflated came down, last to finish here. Shishkin was 2nd to Envoi Allen on the Thursday last year.

This century only Synchronised and Native River had previously run over further than the GC trip. Both were Welsh National winners.

The last multiple Gold Cup winner to win his first when older than seven was Cottage Rake in 1948.  Galopin Des Champs was seven last year.

Again, against all of that, 14 horses this century had never run in excess of three miles before and started here in single figure prices. Eight won, including Galopin Des Champs, Sizing John and Coneygree. Galopin the only qualifier in the last five years, all those others in single figure prices had run at distances over 3 miles, in 2018 only qualifier Killultagh Vic 8/1 PU. Al Boum Photo had run in two G1s in excess of 3m but didn't finish either. Hmmm

Talking about stayers, Minella Rocco and Native River 1st and 2nd in the 2016 now G2 National Hunt Chase filled the places here in 2017 behind Sizing John. Galvin first qualifier since, 4th in 2022 at 100/30. Stattler PU last year,even before Minella Indo.

Coneygree first novice successful since Captain Christy ’74. Dawn Run won on only her 4th chase, Dorans Pride finished 3rd as a novice in 1997. (None ran in the 10 before Coneygree and he himself had no idea how experienced were those who were trailing behind him in his wake). Previous four novices were 2000 Gloria Victis 13/2 fell 2 out when still in contention, 2003 Beef Or Salmon 5/1 fell, 2004 Therealbandit 15/2 fell, 2006 Iris's Gift 16s PU. None ran last five years. Ain't any trying in 2024.

IRISH TRAINED - In the last 21, nine winners and 19 placed from 85 runners (Seven from 13 runners last year resulting in a 1-3-4. Seven from 11 in 2022. Resulted in a 1-2-4. Seven from 12, 2021 a 1-2-3, 9 from 16 in 2019 resulting in a 1-2, 9 from 15 2018, best in third. 4 from 13 in 2017, winner and fourth, 6 from 10 in 2016 gave a 1-2-3-4, 7 from 16 in 2015, Djakakam and Road To Riches placed, 1-2 in 2014, Sir Des Champs on his own, 2nd in 2013). Better stat is eight Irish trained winners in the last ten, including the last five. Big squad each year. Galopin Des Champs, Conflated, Hewick, Gerri Colombe, Fastorslow... W Mullins has trained three of the last five winners, six runners up, Djakadam twice, On His Own, Sir Des Champs, Hedgehunter and Florida Pearl. Djakadam also finished fourth and fifth. A warrior, was he.
 

GALWAY PLATE - Don't recognise any Gold Cup winners in Galway Plate winner's roster. Balko Des Flos won it in 2017 and then went on to stroll past Un De Sceaux in 2018 Ryanair. Ash Tree Meadow may go Ryanair. Hewick. I still haven't got over that fall at the last in Listowel. Well, after Kempton, maybe...

RED MILLS Chase - Can't see a GC Winner in the role of honour although Anibale Fly finished 2nd in both in 2019. Monalee won at Gowran 2019 but was outpaced by Frodon in the Ryanair. In 2017 Our Duke won from Presenting Percy, the latter's next run was to win the RSA. 2020 Chris's Dream won at Gowran but Aidan Coleman decided not to try and front run here, for some unexplained reason. Perhaps wouldn't stay. No entry in 2021. Melon and Janidil both recently unpld Ryanair .

M/D.Pipe. 3 placed horses in career total of 30 losers. None recent.

In 2022, 10 horses tried to win a Festival Grade 1 having not been seen for at least 90 days. None, including Appreciate It, were successful.

In 2023, 11 tried the same feat, Marine Nationale (100 days) successful.

P Nicholls - Kauto/Denman/See More Business Bravemansgame a brave 2nd last year at 6/1. Frodon not quite good enough for this and Clan Des Obeaux didn't seem to take to the race/track/occasion in the previous two years, 5th at 5/1 second fav in 2019. 8th at 7s in 2020. Saphir Du Rheu PU 2018.

Jonjo ONeill has had 10 runners in this, Synchronised winning Minella Rocco 2nd, Exotic Dancer 2nd, 5th and 3rd in consecutive years, Holywell 4th 2015 and unlucky that the rains came overnight that year. No runners in the past six years and nothing on the horizon.

CLASS - King George Winners - Since Arkle only Desert Orchid, Best Mate ‘03, Kicking King, Kauto Star (twice) and Long Run 2011 have done the King George/Gold Cup double in the same season. Best Mate was second in King George ‘01 (and didn’t run in King George ‘03 before winning GC in '04). Bobs Worth didn't run between Hennessey and Gold Cup. Silviniaco Conti never seemed to act on the track. Cue Card may have gone close. Might Bite a very honourable second in 2018. Clan Des Obeaux disappointing twice. Frodon a gallant 5th. Bravemansgame 2nd. Hewick from Bravemansgame, Shishkin U, The Real Whacker 4th.

This century only three second season chasers have won the King George (and one novice, Thistlecrack who missed Cheltenham). Those three finished 1122 in the Gold Cup. Hewick is a third season chaser.

Placed in this season's King George. 11 of the last 24 Gold Cup winners competed in that season's King George. However, the record of placed horses in that season's King George is patchy at best.  '94 The Fellow and '97 Mr Mulligan both won after solid performances in the Kempton race. Since '97, 12 of those finishing 2nd or 3rd at Kempton have taken their chance in March. Best Mate won, Exotic Dancer finished 2nd at Cheltenham, both Kauto 2011 and Long Run 2012 3rd. Captain Chris 6th in 2013 GC, Albertas Run unpl '09 won Ryanair '10. See More Business and Looks Like Trouble both won Gold Cups after being pulled up at Kempton in December. Minella Indo PU KG, second here. Bravemansgame.

In the 2016 KG, plenty of debate as to where Don Cossack might have finished after falling two out. Plenty more debate about Cue Card in March that season. 2017 Cue Card well beat by Thistlecrack at Kempton, then fell at the same bloody fence in the GC but was beaten at the time. Double Shuffle NR and Tea For Two Unpl 2018. Thistlecrack PU but Native River 3rd at Kempton, 4th here in 2019. It might be said that daylight was second in the 2019 King George because for the first time that I can remember, neither the 2nd nor the 3rd to Clan des Obeaux bothered to enter the 2020 Gold Cup. Last home, Lostintranslation PU at Kempton, a fine 3rd here at 10/1, the only Tizzard horse to run any sort of race all week. Placed behind Frodon 2020 was Waiting Patiently and Clan des Obeaux. Neither came and neither of the two placers in 2022 year showed up here. Last year Ahoy Senor PU. The Real Whacker

To summerise all that, Don Cossack is the only GC winner to have run in any of the last 12 KIng George chases. Hewick

NEWBURY - Three from the last 16 came from the Ladbroke/Hennessey. Denman and Bobs Worth won it as favourites, Lord Windermere finished 8th. 2017 Native River was 3rd in GC. Apart from The Tank and Bobs Worth, Jodami and Bregawn are the only four to do the GC double in the past 48 years. 2018 Total Recall fell three out here when still in with a shout. 2020 Elegant Escape 3rd at Newbury, 11th and last here. Nothing came last two years. In 2023 no horse who ran at Newbury has an entry.

WELSH NATIONAL - Master Oats '95 last one to do the double in one season. Welsh National was run at Newbury that season due to weather problems at Chepstow. Burrough Hill Lad 1983 the one before that. He was a huge horse. Synchronised won at Chepstow in 2010 before taking the Gold Cup in 2012. Native River did the 2016 - 2018 double. Elegant Escape won a Welsh National, placed in two Newbury Hennesseys, unplaced twice here behind Al Boum Photo. Last four Welsh National winners are too lowly rated even to be entered here.

Previous quality track form. 20 of the last 26 Gold Cup winners had finished placed at a previous Festival. Galopin won the Martin Pipe and should have won the Turners, A Plus Tard, 2nd in this ran away with the nov h'cap chase. Minella Indo won AB, placed in a Broadway Chase. Not Al Boum Photo first time, fell and broke Ruby's leg at the second last when 3rd behind Presenting Percy in the 2018 RSA. Native River was placed in a 4 miler and a GC, Sizing John 2nd in an Arkle, 3rd in a Supreme. Don Cossack 3rd in a Ryanair, B Cooper was called a lot of names that day, even by G Elliott. Not Coneygree, Synchronised, Kauto (the first time), Imperial Call, See More Business.

To summarise, if Al Boum Photo hadn't fallen two out in that RSA, the last eight would have had all Festival placed form. Before him, Coneygree had never run at a Festival but had won two G2 Novice Hurdles. Lord Windermere took an RSA.

30 from last 35 either course winners or placed at a previous festival (exceptions Al Boum Photo first time, Synchronised, Imperial Call, Kauto, Jodami). Synchronised came here from a facile Lexus win, Imperial Call won an Irish Hennessey. War of Attrition came from being 2nd to Beef or Salmon in an Irish GC and had won a G2 here in November. Coneygree and Kauto both came from winning the G2 (now called) Denman Chase. Kauto had won the King George that season. Coneygree won those course G2 Novice Hurdles. Coneygree only winner in the last 25 not to have run in a previous Festival. Lots of contenders this year with quality Festival form. Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame, Shishkin, Gerri Colombe Those without the placed Festival Form or course win include Hewick, Gentlemansgame, Nassalam

Imperial Call '96 and Jodami '93 last two Gold Cup winners without any previous course experience. Both came directly from winning the Irish Hennessey. Nassalam 10th last year behind Corach Rambler in the Ultima.

This century all bar Minella Indo were previous Grade 1 Chase winners (including Coneygree with a Feltham). Lots of them here. Al Boum Photo had won a Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse at Easter. Not Corach Rambler, Gentlemansgame, Nassalam.
 

HEAVY GROUND - No winner this century has won this having run on heavy ground this season (Matt Tombs - How To Bet and Win at the Festival). All 94 horses that had run on officially heavy ground during that season have been beaten in the last 25 Gold Cups.) Can't believe that Don Cossack's jog in the Kinloch Brae at Thurles 2016 was on soft ground? I was there and it looked like a swamp to me. In 2018 this stat correctly took out Our Duke, the 9/2 second fav. Didn't help Chris's Dream nor Elegant Escape 2022. In all Grade 1 chases at the Festival going back to 2005 of the last 51 to have run on heavy ground within the last 30 days, 6 placed, no winners. In fairness, most of those were big prices. Al Boum Photo on Tramore ran on soft, heavy in places 2022, 6th. Have discovered that GC Contenders rarely run on heavy ground (know their stats?) but this season Tramore 1st Jan definitely heavy. This stat not a help in 2024 to Nassalam, Shishkin, Protektorat, Monkfish, Jungle Boogie or Gentlemansgame.

A Plus Tard joined Kauto Star 2007 only horses to have won the Betfair Million. Only four GC winners have actually ran in the Betfair Chase that season. Henry's horse the first in 12. Last one was Imperial Commander, epically beaten by Kauto by a sh hd at Haydock. Protektorat, Royal Paguille, Corach Rambler, Bravemansgame. Million obviously doesn't exist now.

THOSE THAT HAVE TRIED AND TRIED AGAIN. I'm digressing.

In 2022 there was big chat about the chances of Santini. 8th of nine finishers. I couldn't find a horse who finished second or placed in three Festival G1s and then win one on their fifth attempt (Albert Bartlett, RSA, GC). Melon's Festival record finished 2222P5, all in G1s. Smad Place (Festivals 2011-17) G1 placed in three consecutive Festivals but never finished better than 8th after that. Should have won more races, especially if had been allowed to front-run. Somersby (Festivals 2009-17) ran 8 times in March getting placed in 4 G1s without winning, a Supreme, an Arkle and later on, 2 QMs. Some horse. Fair Along (Festivals 2006-13) in 2007 even ran down the field in the County Hurdle three days after finishing a gallant 2nd to My Way de Solzen in the Arkle. The Hobbs machine achieved placings of 223 in G1s in three consecutive Festivals but his best finish after that was only 4th in an Ultima. Wouldn't you loved to have owned him?

This stat possibly a little unfair if you recall Adam Kondrat RIP finishing 3rd, 4th, 2nd then won a GC on The Fellow in 1994. Some said Adam may not have been the best around Cheltenham. Politologue went 20th/4th/4th/2nd before winning the QM on his fifth Festival visit. His three runs 2017-19 were in G1s having originally started in the Coral Cup. In mainly handicaps, Uncle Ernie went 2243 and then won a Grand Annual. Similarly The Package P243, then succeeded in a Kim Muir. Sea Pigeon went 42211 in Champion Hurdles, his last spectacular win being in 1980. Even Petit Mouchoir's Festival record was 833052. Shantou Flyer's current Festival record is 22333. Remarkable.

Have we anything close this year? Well, Bravemansgame Festival record is 32, the only two occasions he has actually ran at the course.

No winner of the World Hurdle/Stayers has gone on to win GC since 1972. Brown Lad was the Stayers winner '75 closest being 1976 and '78 as GC runner up both times. Brown Lad was some horse. Didn't make his debut until he was an eight yr old and went on to be the only horse to win three Irish Grand Nationals, the last one in 1978 at the age of 12. I stood at the last fence when he jogged around Down Royal one day in late 1977. I seem to remember a lovely, huge placid being in the parade ring.

Apart from Lord Windermere and Imperial Commander, all back to See More Business '99 at least had won that season. Both the exceptions were G1 Festival winners the previous year. Imperial Commander had been beaten a nose at Haydock in Betfair Chase in his GC season. Al Boum Photo, one run, one win at Tramore. Four seasons in a row. Bravemansgame, Corach Rambler, Protektorat, The Real Whacker

32 out of the last 36 finished at least 3rd last time (exceptions are Lord Windermere 6th in Irish Hennessey, Imperial Commander unpl King George, Cool Dawn PU with an injury problem and Mr Mulligan, fell at last when second in King George). Problems here for, amongst others, Ahoy Senor, Conflated

IRE Breds have won the 15 from last 26 (Sizing John by Midnight Legend ENG bred, Don Cossack by Sholokhov GER bred. Coneygree by Karinga Bay and Imperial Commander by Flemensfirth both ENG Bred. Galopin Des Champs, A Plus Tard, Al Boum, Kauto and Long Run, all FRE Bred).

Now called the Cotswold Cup Cheltenham Trials day. A G2. Little Owl (1981), Master Oats (1995) and Looks Like Trouble (2000). First became a recognised Gold Cup Trial in ’95 when Master Oats did the double. Since then only winners to have competed in both are Looks Like Trouble (2000), See More Business ’99 was third in January before winning the Gold Cup that year. 2016 Djakadam fell in January and then 2nd here. Smad Place won in January, 6th here. 2016 Thistlecrack outstayed by warrior Many Clouds. In the last 11 yrs only Santini, Neptune Collonges and The Giant Bolster have come from this race to be placed in GC. Native River 4th here 2021 having won the rescheduled race at Wincanton. Capadanno (not entered) strolled home from The Real Whacker. .

Synchronised first to do the Lexus/Savills double since ‘96. A Plus Tard a GC second having won Leop 2020, Minella Indo fell 8th at Leopardstown when fav. Delta Work won Savills then 5th here 2020. Road To Respect 4th 2019 in Ryanair. Don Poli, Road To Riches both won at Leopardstown before finishing 3rd here. Lord Windermere 7th in Lexus, then won GC. To summarise only A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Synchronised and Lord Windermere of the last 13 came from the Xmas Leopardstown 3m Chase. Last year Conflated a gallant third here. Galopin Des Champs easy as you like from Gerri Colombe.

PETER MARSH CHASE HAYDOCK - GC Double achieved by Little Owl, Bregawn, Jodami '93 Won by Royal Pagaille, who in 2021 was a rare third season novice chaser. Finished 6th here. Of the last 68 runners to have run in a handicap last time out, only Cool Dawn and Bobs Worth winners. Royal Pagaille fine repeat win at Haydock this season, 5th at Cheltenham. Five places paid on Skybet. No handicappers in last years field.

Al Boum Photo x2, Native River, Sizing John, Coneygree and Bobs Worth only winners since Cool Dawn 1998 not to have run in that season's King George or Savills Chase. Corach Rambler, Nassalam, Gentlemansgame, Protektorat.

Can't find a GC winner who had already won a Savills and an Irish GC that season. Galopin Des Champs

Kauto Star and Desert Orchid 1989 the last winners of this to compete in a graded non-novice race over 2 miles that season. Kauto ran in a QM and won a Tingle Creek. Not sure of the significance but thank you Nick Mordin wherever you may be.

A nice one from Paul Ferguson's festival guide. Novices who placed in the Supreme Novices Hurdle are 6 from 6 this century. Best Mate x3, Kicking King, War Of Attrition and Sizing John. Shishkin won it. Not believed that any winner has had one previous run that season in a G2 two-mile chase but Commanche Court finished 2nd to Best Mate 2002, the latter's third win, after running 4th at Naas in the G3 2m Newlands Chase. The GC was then Commanche Court's sixth run of the season.

SHISHKIN - Matt Tombs - This was relevant in 2023. Gold Cup record this century of horses that ran at about 2m in the previous Festival: 1611P1PP2125. All five going off shorter than 25/1 won, the other two going off shorter than 50/1 were 2nd, (even a 150/1 shot was beaten less than 7l) On a sound surface GC speed is invariably underbet. Interesting. No Turners/GC double so far. L'Escargot in 1970 the last Supreem winner to win a GC. As said above, War Of Attrition and Kicking King narrowly beaten in that novice hurdle. Also Best Mate under a poor enough ride when short priced jolly.

The last 24 winners had already won a G1. Corach Rambler, Gentlemansgame amongst others have not.

MARES - Dubacilla 2nd in 1995. Shattered Love 2019 9th to Al Boum Photo the only one to run since?

Alverton '79 only horse to win an Arkle and a Gold Cup. Shishkin

Galopin Des Champs became the first in the last seven Irish trained winners to run (and win) that season's John Durkan. Before Lord Windermere going back to Captain Christy in '74 they all used to. Even Dawn Run won it in '85. Min did win a Ryanair after winning in Punchestown, mind you. As did Allaho in 2022. Fastorslow, Gallopin Des Champs.

The winner of the Charlie Hall chase has not won that season's Gold Cup since at least 1988. Even Silviniaco Conti couldn't overcome that bogey. Looks Like Trouble 2000 was third at Wetherby and then did the Cotswold/Gold Cup double. Definitley Red unplcd 2019. Since then all NRs until Bravemansgame won CHall last year, 2nd to Gentlemansgame this season.

PREVIOUS RUNS - Galopin Des Champs came from winning the Irish GC at the DRF.  Two runs. A Plus Tard, two runs also two runs in 2022, not seen since the Savills. Minella Indo, four runs, two soft Graded wins followed by two underwhelming performances in the Leopardstown 3m G1s.  26 from last 28 no more than four previous runs that season (Al Boum Photo famously one run a year, Native River, one run in the Denman Chase, 'couldn't overcome the bounce factor' argued Timeform. Long Run two in 2011, Synchronised three, Bobs Worth only one, Lord Windermere and Coneygree both three). Al Boum, Native River, Bobs Worth first since Garrison Savannah '91 to have just one run that season. Bobs Worth and Garrison last winners not to have run since before Boxing Day. Apart from The Fellow and Kauto (first time) all other winners at least 31 days off before this (15^th February). A Plus Tard 28th Dec, Al Boum January 1st. Apart from Al Boum, Native River (10th Feb) Sizing John (27th Dec), last 32 all had their seasonal debuts before Christmas. 12 of the past 22 had not run since January 1st.

Only Easter Hero in 1929 won having not had a run over fences that season. Presenting Percy tried it unsuccessfully in 2019. Al Boum, Native River, Bobs Worth, and Garrison Savannah all won after one race that season, all in chases. Bregawn '83 ran in a chase ten days before the Gold Cup. What A Myth initially jogged around in a Hunters Chase before winning GC two runs and three weeks later. Ah, they made them tough then.

Since '87 all bar Al Boum Photo x2, Nortons Coin and Don Cossack had their prep run over 3 miles. (The Tramore G3 is only 'about' 2m 5 1/2 furlongs, but it's so sharp that they jump the fence in front of the stands four times. And we are not sure what distance he ran on 1st Jan 2021, if you remember Simon Rowland's column on ATR). G Elliott sent Don Cossack to the Kinloch Brae after the King George fall. Obviously concerned about another Cheltenham Stat, i.e. winning off the back of a fall.

10 of the last 27 achieved an F, B, P or U in their form figures that season. Only Minella Indo F in Savills, Don Cossack F in KG from the last decade. Lord Windermere's season form figures were 876. Lostintranslation's P didn't help.  The last two winners to have a letter as their previous form figure was Cool Dawn P in '98 and Mr Mulligan F in '97. Conflated.

BROADWAY CHASE - GOLD CUP DOUBLE - Completed by Lord Windermere, Bobs Worth, Denman '07, Looks Like Trouble ‘00 and Garrison Savannah ‘91. That is, five from the last 16 to try. Neither L'Homme Presse nor Monkfish made it. Topofthegame also injured 2020. Presenting Percy disappointed, Might Bite was second, Blaklion didn't come. Of the eight to come 10/1 and under in this, three winners, a second and three thirds. Al Boum Photo fell in the RSA when beaten in third, Mr Mulligan second in the RSA when a short priced favourite and Florida Pearl was placed twice in this race after winning the RSA. The Real Whacker and Gerri Colombe booked to come at time of writing.

To back that up, 17 from the last 32 were either a novice or a second-season chaser from a smaller percentage of numbers. Galopin and Bravemansgame were both second season last year. A Plus Tard won as a fourth season chaser. 3rd and 4th 2022 second season as in 2021 was Minella Indo, 2020 Santini 2nd and Lostintranslation 3rd likewise. Not Native River but second and third to him were. 1-2-3 in 2017, 3rd 2016, 1-2-3 in 2015, 1st in 2014 from 3 runners. First and second in 2013 from 3 qualifiers. The Real Whacker, Gerri Colombe.

A Plus Tard joined Native River and Kauto Star 2009 (second time) first winners since Bregawn ’83 to improve on a placed effort to win the next season's Gold Cup. Bravemansgame, Conflated. And the only three since Kerstin in ‘58 to improve from runner-up to winner 12 months later.

Matt Tombs' ONE CHANCE SALOON - Stabbed by both A Plus Tard and Native River 2018, maybe not fatally. Since The Fellow's win in 1994, all bar A Plus Tard, Native River, See More Business and Kauto of the last 102 to get beat in a Gold Cup and come back, have been beaten again. Three last year beat This year's suspects may include Conflated, Bravemansgame, Protekorat, Royale Paguille. Poor old See More Business wasn't actually beaten. He was carried out after half a circuit by AP making a hash of trying to pull up Cyborgo. (Shssh, no one remembers that, says Mick Fitz). It is probably easier to say that only two of the last 14 winners had raced before in the GC. The Queen Mother used to be the same (before Politologue, Special Tiara) Always worth considering.

Kauto Star only horse to ever regain the Gold Cup. Long Run finished a gallant third when trying. Before Kauto, See More Business was the only GC winner to try and regain it since Jodami. He tried twice, best 3rd once at 40s as a 12 yr old. Between '89 and '95, 5 tried, all no-hopers apart from Jodami '95 7/2 unpl and injured after coming from an Irish Hennessey win. Desert Orchid 4/1 3rd to Garrison Savannah in '91 after 4/6 winner of 4 runner limited handicap Agfa Diamond Chase. Conclusion - being the first to regain the GC may not be the wonder stat it has been painted however even being able to attempt it illustrates the fragility of racehorses and the skills of PF Nicholls.

RATINGS - 19 from last 23 not officially rated lower than 166 before win. Galopin Des Champs 173, A Plus Tard 172, Minella Indo, Al Boum Photo first time both 164, War Of Attrition 157. Native River 166, Sizing John 167, Don Cossack 175, the underrated Synchronised was 166. Lord Windermere was only 152. Coneygree 166. First five home last year rated at least 166. Six rated at least 166 in 2022 resulting in a 1-2. Eight in 2021, Minella Indo one of four not 166. Nine in 2020, the 1-2-3 all 170+. Seven of the 14 in 2019 166+ best Bristol De Mai. 2018 Five of the fifteen runners were rated 166+ including 1st and 2nd home. In 2017 it was 6 from 13 including 1st and third.

2005 Kicking King not officially BHA Rated but had come here from winning a King George with an Irish Rating of 159. Also War Of Attrition 2006 no BHA Rating but came from running 4l 2nd to Beef Or Salmon (Irish Rating 170) in Irish GC. Suggest both would have been 166 ish in UK.

TIMES - They say you should never compare different times on different ground on different days but since the races themselves are implanted in our memories, here are the times.

2023 - Galopin Des Champs 6 45 on soft, faster than standard, 15 seconds faster than the hunters

2022 A Plus Tard 6 42 on G to S, 13 secs faster than the Hunters

2021 Minella Indo 6 45 on G to S. One second below standard.

2020 Al Boum Photo 6 50 on G to S, slow enough in comparison with other times that day and only 5 secs faster than the (Fox)Hunters.

2019 Al Boum Photo 6 40 also on G to S, 6 secs under standard. It was the fastest of the day against standard by about 8 secs and ten seconds faster than the Hunter Chase.

2018 On soft Native River slugged it round in 7 03.

2017 Sizing John, 6 36 (fastest of the day against standard, no pace up front served him well),

2016 Don Cossack in 6 35, two seconds under standard.

2015 Coneygree 6 43 on soft.

2014 Lord Windermere 6 44 on good. Would suggest that Coneygree did go some lick upfront. (Watch it again and see how fast they went over the first two fences).

2013 Bobs Worth on rain sodden ground 7 06.

2012 Synchronised below standard 6 36. A horse that was never given the credit.

2011 Long Run. They went round in a track record just under 6 30, 7 secs under standard.

Savills 2023 Galopin Des Champs 6 35 soft 2022 Conflated 6 24 soft 2021 Galvin 6 24, 2020 A Plus Tard 6 26 both on yielding

IRISH GC 2023 Galopin Des Champs 6 28 soft 2022 6 14 yielding 2021 Kemboy 6 35 soft 2019 Delta Work 6 27 yielding, 8 seconds slower than he did with allegedly the same ground at Xmas.

COTSWOLD CHASE - 2023 Capodanno 6 49 G to S 2022 Ahoy Senor 6 36 Soft 2021 Chantry House 6 34 Good, 2020 Santini 6 59 soft. 2019 Frodon 6 36 on G to S.

KING GEORGE - 2023 Hewick 5 56 Good 5 seconds slower than the Feltham. 2022 BMG 5 58 soft, eight seconds faster than the novices. 2021 Tornado Flyer 6 15 soft 2020 Bryony 'stole it' in 6 01 G to S, 2.5 seconds slower than Shan Bleu's front running display earlier. 2019 King George Kempton Clan Des Obeaux 6 10 on soft, 10 secs faster than his 2018 G to S. In 2019 he was seven secs faster than Slate House an hour earlier. But then everyone has been faster than Slate House. Novices carry three lbs less. 2017 Might Bite 6 07 soft but some 14 seconds slower than Thistlecrack's KG win in 2016 and even slower than Might Bite's own performance in the Feltham in 2016.

Four of the last 16 Denman Chase winners have doubled up. 10 of them tried, two of those got a third place here. 2021 Native River 4th. 2022 Eldorado Allen went from Newbury to try and catch Allaho in the Ryanair. Really? Last year Zanza knew his limitations. Shishkin

BLINKERS etc - Last year three ran, best Noblr Yeats a distant 4th. Two in 2022, best 6th. 2021 four ran, best Native River in 4th. 2020 two ran, Santini 2nd in first time cheekpieces, Delta Work in his usual hood. In 2019, two again ran, Native River best, usual cheekpieces, 4th. 2018 Native River won in blinkers he always wore, Road To Respect 4th in his usual hood. Has has been the only winner since See More Business in 1999 from 50 triers. Minella Rocco 2nd 2017 cheekpieces, Holywell 4th was best of six in 2015. The Giant Bolster wore a visor in 3rd 2014, Long Run 3rd in 2013 in blinkers.

BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME OUT - This century 35 beaten favourites last time have tried their luck. A Plus Tard 3/1 fav and winner in 2022 had been 8/11 in the Savills. 2021 Minella Indo at 9/1 was first to crack it, he had been 13/8 fav also in the Savills. Might Bite in PU 2019 had been 3/1 fav in the KG. In 2017 Djakadam (once again) and Bristol De Mai.  No BFs last time entered in 2024.

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